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平理解好生意和护城河的重要指标。它不是随意卖高价的能力，而是因为产品差异化、用户信任和长期价值，让企业在合理范围内拥有不被价格战牵着走的能力。",22.5,{"title":150,"slug":151,"description":152,"category":132,"order":153,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"用户体验","yonghutiyan","段永平对用户体验的关注可以追溯到他做小霸王和步步高时期，那时他用\"消费者导向\"来表达类似的理念。2003年北大演讲中他说：\"对于企业来说，最重要的是产品，而产品又必须以消费者为导向，所以最终你要找准消...",23,{"title":155,"slug":156,"description":157,"category":132,"order":158,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"渠道","qudao","段永平对渠道的理解来源于他在步步高建立全国销售网络的实战经验。1999年在人民大学问答中，被问及步步高在管理上有什么特点时，他提到了\"地区唯一代理制\"的渠道管理模式。这是他最早公开谈论渠道策略的记录。",24,{"title":160,"slug":161,"description":162,"category":132,"order":163,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"平台","pingtai","段永平使用\"平台\"概念主要集中在分析苹果公司的商业模式时。最早出现在2011年他写的\"买入苹果思考\"中：",25,{"title":165,"slug":166,"description":167,"category":132,"order":168,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"生态系统","shengtaixitong","段永平使用\"生态系统\"这一概念主要是在分析苹果公司时。最早出现在2012年前后的投资问答中。当一位网友详细描述了苹果设备之间的联动体验（iPhone、iPad、Mac的无缝协作、App 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CEO、理解乔布斯追求、苹果文化与用户体验。",5230,{"title":848,"slug":849,"description":850,"category":753,"order":851,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","整理段永平对马云的评价：理想主义、现实主义、企业文化、勇气、阿里巴巴与保留。",5240,{"title":853,"slug":854,"description":855,"category":753,"order":856,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","整理段永平对丁磊的评价：很有悟性、网易、不卖公司、不会干傻事、单纯与现金克制。",5250,{"title":858,"slug":859,"description":860,"category":753,"order":861,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","整理段永平对马化腾的评价：人不错、年轻、微信、微信支付、腾讯商业模式与长期影响。",5260,{"title":863,"slug":864,"description":865,"category":753,"order":866,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","整理段永平对俞敏洪的评价：新东方、面对问题、韧性、好生意人、条汉子与能力边界。",5270,{"title":868,"slug":869,"description":870,"category":753,"order":871,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","整理段永平对季克良的评价：茅台质量文化、造钟人、长期工艺、质量坚持与企业传承。",5280,{"title":873,"slug":874,"description":875,"category":753,"order":876,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","整理段永平对黄仁勋的评价：真诚、有能量、长期方向一致、英伟达、AI 与能力圈边界。",5290,{"title":878,"slug":879,"description":880,"category":753,"order":881,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的公司，并区分高度评价、正面关注、曾评价后修正和仍需观察。",5300,"topic",{"title":884,"slug":885,"description":886,"category":753,"order":887,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的人：投资大师、企业家、创始人和关键经营者。",5310,{"title":889,"slug":890,"description":891,"category":753,"order":892,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","整理段永平从看不懂、保留或低估，逐步重新评估的公司案例：泡泡玛特、英伟达、阿里、新东方等。",5320,{"id":894,"title":459,"body":895,"category":416,"chapterOrder":30,"date":10,"description":461,"extension":3102,"meta":3103,"navigation":3104,"order":462,"path":3105,"seo":3106,"seoDescription":461,"seoTitle":3107,"slug":460,"source":10,"sourceDate":10,"sourceUrl":10,"stem":3108,"tags":3109,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"__hash__":3114,"_collection":3115},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fwenda-invest-05.md",{"type":896,"value":897,"toc":3096},"minimark",[898,903,907,918,921,924,927,932,939,944,947,950,953,958,961,972,975,978,981,988,991,994,997,1000,1003,1010,1015,1018,1023,1031,1037,1040,1045,1048,1054,1057,1060,1066,1069,1076,1080,1085,1088,1091,1096,1099,1104,1107,1112,1115,1118,1123,1126,1129,1134,1137,1140,1143,1149,1152,1155,1158,1161,1164,1169,1172,1175,1178,1185,1188,1193,1199,1207,1210,1215,1218,1223,1226,1229,1232,1237,1240,1243,1249,1255,1267,1270,1273,1276,1281,1289,1295,1298,1301,1307,1312,1318,1321,1326,1329,1336,1341,1348,1351,1354,1363,1366,1369,1374,1377,1382,1385,1390,1393,1398,1401,1406,1409,1414,1417,1422,1425,1430,1433,1438,1447,1450,1455,1458,1463,1466,1471,1474,1477,1480,1483,1492,1495,1500,1503,1506,1509,1512,1516,1522,1527,1530,1535,1538,1543,1546,1551,1554,1559,1562,1567,1570,1575,1578,1583,1586,1591,1597,1602,1605,1610,1613,1618,1621,1626,1629,1634,1637,1642,1645,1650,1655,1660,1663,1668,1676,1681,1684,1689,1692,1697,1700,1705,1708,1713,1716,1721,1724,1729,1732,1737,1742,1745,1748,1751,1754,1757,1760,1763,1766,1769,1772,1781,1784,1787,1792,1795,1800,1803,1806,1809,1814,1817,1822,1825,1834,1837,1840,1845,1851,1854,1857,1860,1865,1870,1873,1876,1879,1885,1888,1892,1897,1900,1903,1922,1925,1930,1937,1942,1945,1950,1953,1958,1961,1966,1969,1974,1977,1982,1985,1990,1993,1998,2001,2010,2015,2018,2021,2026,2029,2032,2035,2040,2045,2050,2056,2059,2064,2072,2075,2080,2083,2088,2091,2096,2102,2105,2110,2113,2118,2121,2126,2129,2134,2137,2146,2149,2154,2157,2162,2165,2170,2173,2178,2184,2187,2192,2195,2198,2203,2206,2212,2215,2220,2226,2229,2234,2237,2242,2247,2250,2255,2258,2263,2266,2271,2274,2279,2284,2287,2292,2297,2302,2305,2310,2315,2318,2323,2326,2331,2338,2343,2345,2350,2355,2359,2365,2371,2374,2377,2382,2385,2388,2391,2394,2397,2400,2403,2406,2409,2414,2417,2422,2425,2430,2433,2438,2441,2446,2449,2457,2466,2469,2474,2477,2482,2490,2495,2498,2501,2507,2510,2515,2518,2523,2528,2531,2536,2539,2544,2547,2552,2557,2562,2565,2570,2573,2578,2581,2586,2589,2598,2601,2604,2607,2612,2615,2618,2623,2626,2629,2634,2637,2642,2645,2650,2653,2658,2661,2667,2670,2675,2678,2683,2686,2694,2697,2702,2705,2708,2720,2723,2729,2732,2739,2744,2747,2752,2755,2760,2763,2766,2771,2774,2779,2782,2785,2788,2791,2796,2799,2804,2807,2812,2815,2820,2823,2828,2831,2834,2837,2842,2852,2858,2861,2866,2869,2874,2877,2882,2885,2890,2893,2898,2901,2906,2909,2914,2917,2922,2925,2930,2933,2940,2943,2948,2951,2954,2957,2960,2965,2968,2973,2982,2985,2993,2996,3001,3004,3007,3010,3013,3018,3021,3026,3029,3032,3037,3040,3043,3046,3049,3052,3055,3062,3067,3072,3078,3091],[899,900,902],"h2",{"id":901},"第一节-把波动当作朋友","第一节 把波动当作朋友",[904,905,906],"p",{},"网友：您研究宏观经济吗？还是把全部的精力放在研究微观经济上？",[904,908,909,913,914,917],{},[910,911,912],"strong",{},"段永平："," 对宏观经济完全没概念也是很难了解微观经济的。",[910,915,916],{},"所谓对宏观经济的了解应该是对经济现象的理解，而不是花很多功夫去根据宏观经济的短期数据来不断调整自己的“投资”","。我本身本来就学过些宏观经济，主要是马克思以及其他西方经济学的东西，所以对宏观经济知道一点。",[904,919,920],{},"其他的东西对公司短期盈利有影响，但如果你从5年10年的角度看，你会发现宏观的东西对公司的影响要比想象的小得多。(2010-02-07)",[904,922,923],{},"专注在公司生意上，忽略短期的波动很重要。眼前这些事10年后都不是事。(2018-09-10)",[904,925,926],{},"网友：好的公司股价应该不会有这么大的波动",[904,928,929,931],{},[910,930,912],{}," 好的公司和股价是否波动无关。（2015-12-10）",[904,933,934,935,938],{},"网友：",[910,936,937],{},"巴菲特","曾说，如果市场总是有效的，他只会成为一个在大街上手拎马口铁罐的流浪汉。",[904,940,941,943],{},[910,942,912],{}," 个人理解：如果市场总是有效的，那我赚啥子钱嘛？其实市场确实在很多时候是很有效的。但市场一定会有胡来的时候。",[904,945,946],{},"呵呵，波动是朋友。",[904,948,949],{},"其实自己真的明白的公司跌得重是值得高兴的事情，除非你其实不真懂。",[904,951,952],{},"网友：中美贸易战，今后的投资是否也要考虑这种政局变动的风险？怎么考虑？",[904,954,955,957],{},[910,956,912],{}," 对贸易战我没啥看法，或者说有也不说反正说了也没用。从投资的角度讲，找到好公司比啥都重要。在大家有“危机”的时候，好公司往往能将“危机”简化为“机”的。",[904,959,960],{},"专注在公司生意上，忽略短期的波动很重要。眼前这些事10年后都不是事。（2018-09-10）",[904,962,963,964,967,968,971],{},"“根据股票的波动性来判断风险是很傻的。我们认为只有两种风险：一，血本无归；二，回报不足。有些很好的生意也是波动性很大的，比如",[910,965,966],{},"喜诗糖果","通常一年有两个季度都是亏钱的。反倒是有些烂透了的公司生意业绩很稳定。”(",[910,969,970],{},"芒格",")",[904,973,974],{},"想想周围有多少人还在用“股票的波动性”来衡量风险吧。",[904,976,977],{},"网友：自己有钱继续买感觉空头是朋友，心里很高兴，但没钱买如果下跌多点心里不是那么舒服",[904,979,980],{},"大道：你没钱了又不是空头的错。再说，股价狂涨的时候往往就是空头们在买啊。我有很多空头朋友，虽然我不认识他们。（2026-07-24）",[904,982,934,983,987],{},[984,985,986],"span",{},"已修改","定投二三十年等到你退休的时候腰斩也远远比你投入的本金多吧",[904,989,990],{},"大道：哈，大概率比买tbill好，但不懂的人们会很纠结市场的起伏的。（2026-08-06）",[904,992,993],{},"网友：泡泡玛特 大道老师，怎么看泡泡玛特的空头，怎么应对。能给我们这些小散点建议嘛",[904,995,996],{},"大道：空头是朋友啊！如果你想买，你当然希望能买的便宜一点？怕空头的人最好别碰股市，你完全不知道自己在干什么。（2026-07-24）",[904,998,999],{},"网友：难的是不做赌徒，更难的是不知道自己是赌徒。",[904,1001,1002],{},"大道：股价一掉就想卖的大多都是赌徒。（2026-08-19）",[904,1004,1005,1006,1009],{},"网友：这个月",[910,1007,1008],{},"茅台","掉30个点，一般人的心脏受不了。",[904,1011,1012,1014],{},[910,1013,912],{}," 承受不了这点跌幅的人们本来就不应该碰股市。再说，股市上历年统计显示大部分人都是亏钱的。这个统计其实很怪异，因为长期来说，股市一直是涨的(比如用10年段看，过去几十年的每个10年段股市可能都是涨的)，但为什么80%以上的人们会是亏损的呢？",[904,1016,1017],{},"网友：请问股价的大幅波动，对公司的经营或生产有什么影响吗？",[904,1019,1020,1022],{},[910,1021,912],{}," 好公司应该没影响！（2010-04-14）",[904,1024,1025,1026,1030],{},"网友：这个兴不兴奋应该还是与我们的仓位有关吧，老段如果已经满仓，遇到暴跌难道还可以兴奋吗？巴菲特也是有源源不断的",[1027,1028,82],"a",{"href":1029},"\u002Fxianjinliu","才希望公司下跌嘛。",[904,1032,1033,1036],{},[910,1034,1035],{},"段永平"," ：如果你只有一只股票，而且还是满仓的，如果你真正了解你投资的东西的话，那下跌就和你无关了。（2010-04-23）",[904,1038,1039],{},"网友：呵呵，美国股市波动也真大。yahoo开盘涨幅好大。",[904,1041,1042,1044],{},[910,1043,912],{}," 呵呵，波动是朋友（2010-05-10）",[904,1046,1047],{},"04．【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012-02-17）",[904,1049,1050,1051],{},"56、事实上，真正的投资人喜欢波动都还来不及，本杰明·格雷厄姆《聪明的投资人》一书的第八章便有所解释，他引用了“市场先生”理论，",[910,1052,1053],{},"“市场先生”每天都会出现在你面前，只要你愿意都可以从他那里买进或卖出你的投资，只要他老兄越沮丧，投资人拥有的机会也就越多。",[904,1055,1056],{},"这是由于只要市场波动的幅度越大，一些超低的价格就更有机会出现在一些好公司身上，很难想象这种低价的优惠会被投资人视为对其有害，对于投资人来说，你完全可以无视于他的存在或是好好地利用这种愚蠢的行为。（1993）",[904,1058,1059],{},"网友：我记得学长您是习惯用市价盘买卖股票的，不知道您会不会受到任何短期波动的影响，但是买了以后马上跌5%肯定也会觉得惋惜吧？",[904,1061,1062,1065],{},[910,1063,1064],{},"段永平：你要是真的拥有这家公司，你不会在意的，不然因为股价永远在波动，你每时每刻都会“觉得惋惜”"," 。（2016-01-14）",[904,1067,1068],{},"如果真是大多数投资者都在赌的话，那一定会有个时点可以赚大钱。",[904,1070,1071,1072,1075],{},"我是说一定会有个时点(时间长了会有很多时点)",[1027,1073,52],{"href":1074},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者能赚大钱。这里时点指的是一个时间区域。",[899,1077,1079],{"id":1078},"第二节-忽略市场噪声","第二节 忽略市场噪声",[904,1081,1082,1084],{},[910,1083,912],{}," 呵呵，多预测几次，总有对的时候哈。牛市熊市都是市场的看法，投资最重要其实也是唯一重要的是看懂公司的未来。看不懂就歇着，赌牛市或熊市是危险滴。如果买的是非上市公司，股市多少点有啥关系？（2012-07-23）",[904,1086,1087],{},"网友G：太经典了！",[904,1089,1090],{},"投资和投资在目的上面是一致的，都是赚到钱。但是心态完全不一样。投机更多的使用了预测，直觉。而投资更多基于经验和实事。所以（价值）投资者对市场波动不太在意。",[904,1092,1093,1095],{},[910,1094,1035],{}," ：但投机这种打猎有时候会被猎物干掉。",[904,1097,1098],{},"网友：价值投资者是否要重视宏观经济呢？",[904,1100,1101,1103],{},[910,1102,912],{}," 了解总是要的，但不是每天看消息的那种。长期而言，对宏观经济还是要理解的好。（2010-05-23）",[904,1105,1106],{},"网友：投资股票是不是只应当关注公司，不要关注宏观短时间的变化，",[904,1108,1109,1111],{},[910,1110,912],{}," 我不懂宏观经济，虽然我研究生是学宏观经济的（计量经济）。（2019-08-02）",[904,1113,1114],{},"芒格：巴菲特和我不是因为成功预测了宏观经济并且依此下注才获得今天的成功的。",[904,1116,1117],{},"网友：学长会不会考虑等到中国房产泡沫扎破以后再买万科？我看谢国忠一直在宣称这个泡沫即将来临。",[904,1119,1120,1122],{},[910,1121,912],{}," 我只管公司便宜不便宜。其他的都是是否让公司便宜不便宜的外部条件。（2010-04-24）",[904,1124,1125],{},"巴菲特：我对总体经济一窍不通，汇率与利率根本无法预测，好在我在做分析与选择投资标时根本不去理会它。",[904,1127,1128],{},"网友：价值投资会考量牛市与熊市吗？牛熊市是可知的吗？能判断吗？",[904,1130,1131,1133],{},[910,1132,1035],{}," ：看看牛市熊市的定义就知道了。",[904,1135,1136],{},"所谓“牛市”，也称多头市场，指市场行情普遍看涨，延续时间较长的大升市。",[904,1138,1139],{},"所谓“熊市”，也称空头市场，指行情普遍看淡，延续时间相对较长的大跌市。",[904,1141,1142],{},"牛熊市的说法都是马后炮的说法，没人可以预测，或者说只有一半的人可以预测，但事先没人知道是哪一半对。",[904,1144,1145,1148],{},[910,1146,1147],{},"价值投资只管便宜与否，不管别人的想法，所以应该不考量"," 。（2010-05-23）",[904,1150,1151],{},"网友y：一个投资者的心路历程——学习老巴好榜样。",[904,1153,1154],{},"1．焦躁的过山车，那两三年，自己很努力，尝试不同的方法，但还是注定失败。一是最终沉迷于市场，二是努力方向错误。还是盯着市场，研究“势”，为投机找借口。三是学习方向错误。那时也很谦虚的到处学习，身边有人吹得很神，为自己还是重点大学金融研究生不如他们而惭愧……，那两三年：悲催的大牛市与大熊市，这过山车摇得自己差点没命。",[904,1156,1157],{},"2、迷惘的再摔跤……最后，还是迷茫地再摔跤再坐过山车……",[904,1159,1160],{},"学习方面，由于持股少了，更多时间空出来看别的东西。系统地看了巴菲特，特别是段永平、对价值投资的概念有点登堂入室的理解。",[904,1162,1163],{},"3．近两年：开始做对的事情，但还没把事情做对。",[904,1165,1166,1168],{},[910,1167,912],{}," 呵呵，说几点：",[904,1170,1171],{},"1．说明学校里是很难学到投资的，哪怕是金融专业的研究生也可以是七窍只通了六窍。（备注：就是一窍不通的意思）",[904,1173,1174],{},"2．说明在吃了很多亏后，不断悟的人最后会悟到“道”的。",[904,1176,1177],{},"3．上道了不等于到了目的地，知道对的事情离能把事情做对可能还有相当长的时间。好消息是，只要上道了，快点慢点其实没啥关系，早晚你都会到罗马的，if you really believe that.（2012-05-01）",[904,1179,1180],{},[910,1181,1182,1183,971],{},"“我和沃伦并非依靠预测宏观经济走势并基于这些预测结果下注，才在人生中取得如今的成就。”(",[910,1184,970],{},[904,1186,1187],{},"我也不是。(2012-06-26)",[904,1189,1190,1191,971],{},"“我对总体经济一窍不通，汇率与利率根本无法预测，好在我做分析与选择投资标的时根本不去理会它。”(",[910,1192,937],{},[904,1194,1195,1196,1198],{},"好多人以为自己看看新闻就能比",[910,1197,937],{},"明白，可笑不？",[904,1200,1201,1206],{},[910,1202,1203,1204,971],{},"“从预言中你可以得知许多预言者的信息，但对未来却所获无几。”(",[910,1205,937],{}," 哈哈，这个说法很妙。(2012-07-28)",[904,1208,1209],{},"网友：请教一个关于周期的问题，我记得你曾说过，所谓周期就是马后炮的说法，你认为周期是无法事先预测的，我的问题是你是认为单纯股市的周期无法预测，还是你认为整个宏观经济或某个行业的所谓周期也根本无法事先预测？",[904,1211,1212,1214],{},[910,1213,912],{}," 我不研究这些问题（周期的问题），不光不知道如何预测周期，连定义是什么都搞不清。（2018-01-07）",[904,1216,1217],{},"网友：今天看到您说回复说市场有七窍，您已通6窍。大道方便说说市场有哪7窍吗？其中6窍您是怎么理解的？谢谢！",[904,1219,1220,1222],{},[910,1221,912],{}," 就是我对市场一窍不通的意思。（2019-04-03）",[904,1224,1225],{},"网友：大道老师好，沃什的上任会对美股整体上涨预期产生负面影响吗？",[904,1227,1228],{},"大道：你觉得关注这种宏观消息对你会有帮助吗？（2026-02-02）",[904,1230,1231],{},"网友：但斌还是把企业分析放在第一位的。",[904,1233,1234,1236],{},[910,1235,912],{}," 那你认为看图看线应该放在第几位？",[904,1238,1239],{},"你这话给我的感觉像是说某人并不总是坏人，所以是好人。这话和但斌无关哈。",[904,1241,1242],{},"很多人不明白看图看线的地方是：看图看线实际上是有50%的准确率的，唯一的问题是人们事先无法肯定哪次是对的。",[904,1244,1245,1246,1248],{},"看图看线实际上就是看目前(这个时刻或时段)别人对股票的看法。",[1027,1247,52],{"href":1074},"者的心中是无图无线的！",[904,1250,1251,1252,1254],{},"看图看线看到",[910,1253,937],{},"这条路上来不容易啊。我看过很多人在这一行干了几十年，从来就没有明白过为什么看图看线赚不了大钱。你要当了看图看线的理想主义者就麻烦了。",[904,1256,1257,1258,1260,1261,1263,1264,1266],{},"我就知道我满仓买过一次当年美国涨幅第一的股票，还好那时没看图看线，不然早卖了。看图看线忙一辈子也不如错过这一次啊。记得当",[910,1259,599],{},"1块零5分时，我曾建议一个大行的人买进。这哥们以三十几年看图看线的经验告诉我，现在还不是时候。等",[910,1262,599],{},"突破20块时，他很兴奋地告诉我现在可以买了。其实他也是对的，因为",[910,1265,599],{},"确实涨到20多他才卖的(一分四以前)。",[904,1268,1269],{},"一般而言，一说就是“票”或代码的都是在交易(trade)，我还没见过例外。",[904,1271,1272],{},"看个股价不需要看图看线的，偶尔看下就可以了，常看容易短视。",[904,1274,1275],{},"网友：我想华尔街的分析师算的肯定都挺精确。",[904,1277,1278,1280],{},[910,1279,912],{}," 不要迷信华尔街的分析师，好的分析师非常少。（2010-04-07）",[904,1282,1283,1285,1286],{},[910,1284,1035],{}," ：从来没了解过，但感觉投行经常需要写报告，对错没关系，但不写的话分析师就没法混了。至少当年高盛对网易的看法是完全不对的。刚开始看高盛的报告还有点郁闷，觉得他们怎么老是乱写呢，后来慢慢就习惯了，",[910,1287,1288],{},"因为发现分析师的报告大部分都是胡乱拼出来的。再后来就再也没兴趣看分析师的报告了，再后来突然明白为什么他们可以做一辈子分析师也退不了休的原因了。",[904,1290,1291,1294],{},[910,1292,1293],{},"顺便向极少数不错的分析师道个歉哈，不是说你们"," 。（2011-12-15）",[904,1296,1297],{},"网友：呵呵，我绝对同意段大哥的观点。看两年的少之又少，通常也就几个月。所以我一般都不把大行估价当一回事。",[904,1299,1300],{},"引用：巨人网络（GA）摩根士丹利给予巨人增持评级",[904,1302,1303],{},[1304,1305,1306],"em",{},"摩根士丹利今日发布研究报告，给予巨人股票增持评级。以下为报告概要：我们认为巨人股价在未来60日内可能上涨，原因如下：1）我们认为巨人股价遭到低估，目前股价仅相当于2012年预期每股收益的6倍……",[904,1308,1309,1311],{},[910,1310,1035],{}," ：这人好像已经n次说60天以内了，不过现在加了个80%的可能性。难道在这行混饭吃就一定要给时间表并学会说些别人看不懂的语言？（2012-03-07）",[904,1313,1314,1317],{},[910,1315,1316],{},"段永平：我不太看分析师的报告的，我倒是觉得绝大多数分析师该看看我的东西，不然会多做好多年的分析师的"," 。（2012-12-07）",[904,1319,1320],{},"网友：难过没有闲钱加仓了，跌得重但是没有钱加仓了还要开心吗？",[904,1322,1323,1325],{},[910,1324,912],{}," 关你什么事！?",[904,1327,1328],{},"“关你什么事”的意思是针对“没有闲钱加仓了”而言的。既然没闲钱了，那股价下跌就跟你无关了。",[904,1330,1331,1332,1335],{},"嘴里说着熊市牛市啥的，心里其实想的都是赚市场的钱，其实就是",[1027,1333,119],{"href":1334},"\u002Ftouji","的意思。投资赚的是公司赚的钱。这两者有着很大的区别。",[904,1337,1338],{},[910,1339,1340],{},"我不对抗市场，我尽量不理睬市场而已。",[904,1342,1343,1344,1347],{},"你可能专注于猜市场很多年了。",[910,1345,1346],{},"试试以后忘记市场，专注研究企业","。那么多人专注于研究市场几十年都退不了休，你也许可以想想为什么？",[904,1349,1350],{},"网友：我相信段总的决策是完全基于对美股主观的估值。看图看线本质上也是基于历史客观数据，而抛弃主观估值。所以我认为本质上B-S公式和看图看线是一个道理。当然这不能否定B-S公式学术上的完美。拥有主观估值，是巴菲特理论和其他江湖理论的根本区别。",[904,1352,1353],{},"呵呵，B-S公式可是拿过诺贝尔奖的，我把它与看图看线当作一路货色。是不是太鄙视它了？",[904,1355,1356,1358,1359,1362],{},[910,1357,912],{}," 看企业经营历史很重要，不然无法了解企业。",[910,1360,1361],{},"看图看线看的股价的历史，也就是以前别人怎么评价公司的"," ，两者完全不是一回事。（2010-08-14）",[904,1364,1365],{},"网友：由人机围棋大站突然想到如果由AlphaGo来做投资决策会出现什么样的结果呢？大到国家经济决策、金融政策，小到公司估值。",[904,1367,1368],{},"就以苹果公司为例，现在市值5000多亿，我们假设AlphaGo通过各种大数据精密运算，得出苹果合理价值最大概率为10000亿，然后据此投资，苹果市值迅速达到10000亿，这样的话作为个人投资者，是否很难会有价值投资的机会或者说市场投资将平均化？世界经济是否将运行的更加平稳？",[904,1370,1371,1373],{},[910,1372,912],{}," 说明你确实是相信看图看线的，不过决定电脑会看得更好些。按你的逻辑，以后开公司的也是电脑，投钱的也是，你也就没啥好操心的了，也许唯一需要操心的就是要融资买台电脑，而有钱的电脑还不肯给你。（2016-03-21）",[904,1375,1376],{},"网友：我想知道股价具体是由谁决定的？还有决定股价的因素。比如每股10元，一小时后涨到每股10.5元，那这个价格是谁决定的呢？呵呵，这问题困扰我很久了，网上都没找到合适答案，都是答非所问。您是这方面的权威，看到您的博客就好像看到了答案。",[904,1378,1379,1381],{},[910,1380,912],{}," 短期股价是由（买卖量）供求决定的，长期股价是由价值决定的。（2010-03-26）",[904,1383,1384],{},"网友：您认为股价和股民的行为有关还是和实际价值有关联？",[904,1386,1387,1389],{},[910,1388,912],{}," 短期和买卖有关，长期实际上无关。（2010-04-04）",[904,1391,1392],{},"网友：That kind of drop will have some folks rubbing their hands together at the prospect of buying into Yahoo while it’s down，but they should be careful -- while the stock looks cheap，it’s hard to think why the shares should return higher.",[904,1394,1395,1397],{},[910,1396,912],{}," 你看图看线？（2010-07-04）",[904,1399,1400],{},"网友：顺向逆向并不重要，重要的是经过认真的研究分析后，能独立的做决策。",[904,1402,1403,1405],{},[910,1404,912],{}," 逆向思维确实很重要！（2010-06-07）",[904,1407,1408],{},"网友：段老师，当一只股票已经出现安全边际，但考虑到市场情绪仍可能使股票价格再创新低，您怎么办？",[904,1410,1411,1413],{},[910,1412,1035],{}," ：我不知道怎么考虑市场情绪。（2010-06-21）",[904,1415,1416],{},"网友：逆向。别人恐惧我贪婪，别人疯狂我恐惧。",[904,1418,1419,1421],{},[910,1420,912],{}," 如果你不懂你要逆向的东西同样也是很危险的。乱逆向的人手里可能会买很多雷曼或aig或安然的股票。市场大部分时候是非常聪明的，错判的机会其实很少。（2011-05-09）",[904,1423,1424],{},"网友：保险资金入市最近报道的很多，以往伴随着这个消息的都有一波牛市，请教段先生怎么看待这个消息？",[904,1426,1427,1429],{},[910,1428,1035],{}," ：（白眼表情）（2011-06-09）",[904,1431,1432],{},"网友T：投票机和称重机的比喻就是这个，你还在琢磨投票机的事，而应该多考虑称重机才对。",[904,1434,1435,1437],{},[910,1436,1035],{}," ：（憨笑表情）（2011-06-09）",[904,1439,1440,1442,1443,1446],{},[910,1441,912],{}," 我总是假设市场绝大多数情况下是非常聪明的，除非我发现市场确实错了。",[910,1444,1445],{},"（这句话是针对‘逆向操作’说的。逆向思维很重要，但逆向操作和随波逐流都是不可取的。最重要的是理性的独立思考能力"," ）（2012-04-06）",[904,1448,1449],{},"网友：目前环境下已很容易判别出：自己是不是一个「逆向投资者」。",[904,1451,1452,1454],{},[910,1453,912],{}," 逆向未必就是投资，也可能是接飞刀。（2012-11-21）",[904,1456,1457],{},"网友：马克斯写的书《投资最重要的事》，霍华德在书中说：沃伦。巴菲特教给我耐心和逆向投资。好像段大哥一般很少说逆向投资。",[904,1459,1460,1462],{},[910,1461,912],{}," 好的投资大多都是逆向的，但逆向的未必就是好投资。这是初中平面几何里学的逻辑关系哈。（2013-01-23）",[904,1464,1465],{},"网友：您说做价值投资逆向思维与随波逐流都是不可取的，唯有理性独立思考。那像投资标普500这样的指着基金可以逆向投资吗？",[904,1467,1468,1470],{},[910,1469,912],{}," 逆向指的是和别人反向做，投资和别人无关。你可以买你认为便宜的东西，但很难买你认为别人以后会怎么看的公司。股市大部分时候是很聪明的，公司股价的涨跌往往都有其道理，但股市偶尔（其实也很经常）会错。逆向顾名思义就是不管三七二十一，那样会很危险的。（2013-02-22）",[904,1472,1473],{},"网友：有两句话是这么说的：",[904,1475,1476],{},"1、股价低点由价值投资者决定，是他们买住了股价。高点由投机者决定，他们的疯狂连上帝都惊讶。",[904,1478,1479],{},"2、低点和高点其实都是由投机者决定，价值投资者的地位是中流砥柱。",[904,1481,1482],{},"觉得第二句说得更在理。",[904,1484,1485,1487,1488,1491],{},[910,1486,1035],{}," ：",[910,1489,1490],{},"第三句话可能更有道理，就是你说的这两句话和你一点关系都没有。"," （2015-04-18）",[904,1493,1494],{},"网友：至于yahoo，他自己财报里也都写了，机构这些人也不傻，咱能想到的人家也能想到。也就这样了。",[904,1496,1497,1499],{},[910,1498,912],{}," 呵呵，你要这么看机构的人的话你就应该再多看看巴菲特的东西以争取更大的进步了。大多机构是很难做真正的价值投资者的，因为他们的考核体系是用一年来计算的。机构这些人的问题不是傻而是都太聪明了（好像是芒格讲的），他们是聪明的旅鼠（巴菲特语）。",[904,1501,1502],{},"这里没有丝毫挤对机构人的意思。事实上我认识非常多机构的人，里面很多人都很好很聪明。",[904,1504,1505],{},"你想想看，有多少比例的对冲基金可以有10年以上的寿命？你再看看去年都是谁在最便宜的时候狂卖来着？",[904,1507,1508],{},"我说的这些不是对Yahoo而言的（个股的看法可能会有很大差别，因为大家都在某种程度上盲人摸象来着），希望对大家有帮助。（2010-03-20）",[904,1510,1511],{},"补充：对冲基金的平均寿命好像只有7年，千万别学他们的做法。（2010-03-27）",[899,1513,1515],{"id":1514},"第三节-如何看待宏观","第三节 如何看待宏观",[904,1517,1518,1519,1521],{},"网友：说",[910,1520,937],{},"不关心宏观其实也是不太对的。",[904,1523,1524,1526],{},[910,1525,912],{}," 在根基不变的情况下确实没必要关注太多的宏观变化。(2025-03-02)",[904,1528,1529],{},"网友：我很愚钝，从来没有弄懂过一家上市企业，我是不是就不能买股票了呢。但是我又怕钱存在银行被通胀杀手抢去，怎么办。",[904,1531,1532,1534],{},[910,1533,912],{}," 被通胀抢好过在股市亏。（2010-10-22）",[904,1536,1537],{},"网友：为什么“拿着现金是最危险的”？",[904,1539,1540,1542],{},[910,1541,912],{}," 由于未来通胀一定会来，钱将不如以前值钱。比如，我记得90年代初一万块还算挺多钱的，现在在很多地方还不够买个放凳子的面积。（2010-05-08）",[904,1544,1545],{},"网友：阿段看宏观经济是怎么个方法呢？怎么过滤宏观资讯的？",[904,1547,1548,1550],{},[910,1549,912],{}," 除非你懂，不然这些东西只能让你糊涂。不过，作为投资人，我认为对宏观经济还是要了解的好，至少要懂一般的经济现象。（2010-05-23）",[904,1552,1553],{},"网友：通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。这句怎么理解？",[904,1555,1556,1558],{},[910,1557,912],{}," 通胀的情况下货币会贬值。如果你赚钱的速度没有贬值快的话，实际上你是亏钱的。大多数人把每年赚的大部分钱花完了，就没有这个问题。（2010-05-28）",[904,1560,1561],{},"网友：常见H股一般会比A股便宜一些，这个主要原因是什么呢？",[904,1563,1564,1566],{},[910,1565,912],{}," 个人认为是货币不能自由兑换造成的。如果货币能自由兑换，应该不会有这个情况。（2010-10-26）",[904,1568,1569],{},"网友：请问一下段大哥您研究宏观经济吗？还是把全部的精力放在研究微观经济上。",[904,1571,1572,1574],{},[910,1573,1035],{}," ：对宏观经济完全没概念也是很难了解微观经济的。所谓对宏观经济的了解应该是对经济现象的理解而不是花很多工夫去根据宏观经济的短期数据来不断调整自己的“投资”。我本身本来就学过些宏观经济，主要是马克思以及其他西方经济学的东西，所以对宏观经济知道一点。（2011-01-05）",[904,1576,1577],{},"网友：我查了一下人口普查的数据，0-14岁年轻人的数量从82年开始减少得还是比较快的，占总人口比例是33.6%（1982年）、27.7%（1990年）、22.9%（2000年），绝对数量分别是3.39亿、3.13亿、2.91亿。我看过报道说各地的中小学都在经历一个数量、规模减小的过程，但没有深入求证……",[904,1579,1580,1582],{},[910,1581,912],{}," 从我们卖学习工具的生意里好像也能体会到人口年龄层的变化。算起来房地产泡沫（如果有的话）大概到这些人需要买房子的时候就该差不多了。（2011-01-10）",[904,1584,1585],{},"网友：我是很担心的是现在通货膨胀，电子类产品少有涨价的（内存除外），最近连我吃的馒头都涨价了。未来还有什么不涨价的？",[904,1587,1588,1590],{},[910,1589,912],{}," 要什么都不涨价你才该哭呢，40年前不就是这样吗？恶性通胀是很讨厌的东西，但价值投资做得好就能对付。（2011-04-02）",[904,1592,1593,1596],{},[910,1594,1595],{},"我好像印象中没见过经济学家最后成为投资大家的，似乎经济学家都不太会投资。不知道是不是他们都太过于关注宏观了？"," （2011-10-24）",[904,1598,1599,1601],{},[910,1600,912],{}," 开个玩笑，我发现这类活动里，讲的多是不为自己买股票的（比如分析师或基金啥的），听的多是不知道该买啥的。听到一个好的演讲和找到一只好股票差不多一样难度，当然有时间去一下也没啥直接损失。（2012-02-08）",[904,1603,1604],{},"网友：和过去30年比呢？",[904,1606,1607,1609],{},[910,1608,1035],{}," ：和今天比，我赌30年后会更好些。（2012-05-14）",[904,1611,1612],{},"网友：替全国人民谢谢您！其实我也看好包括看好我自己",[904,1614,1615,1617],{},[910,1616,1035],{}," ：（流汗表情）（2012-05-14）",[904,1619,1620],{},"网友Z：和美国比。",[904,1622,1623,1625],{},[910,1624,1035],{}," ：美国的系统使得美国犯大错的机会低，时间越长效果越明显。（2012-05-14）",[904,1627,1628],{},"网友：想请教您对全球宏观策略的看法，您觉得这种方法有效么？",[904,1630,1631,1633],{},[910,1632,912],{}," 虽然我研究生学的是计量经济（也叫数量经济，不过我不算好学生），但不认为那对投资能有什么大帮助，不然投资做得好的就都是那些经济学家了。（2012-05-25）",[904,1635,1636],{},"网友：经济学家这个职业不会比风水大师或者算命大师高明多少吧，都是靠忽悠，不过之前听说过蒙对的人还获得过诺贝尔奖的，呵呵！",[904,1638,1639,1641],{},[910,1640,912],{}," 有很多很好的经济学家。但经济学家大多比较宏观，而投资往往非常微观，不是一回事。（2012-05-25）",[904,1643,1644],{},"芒格：我以前那个年代，汉堡包5美分一个、最低时薪是40美分，所以我算是见证了巨大的通胀了。但它摧毁了投资环境吗？我不这么认为。",[904,1646,1647,1649],{},[910,1648,912],{}," 投资是抵抗通胀的最好办法，不是最好办法之一。所以没有闲钱投资是件痛苦的事情。",[904,1651,1652,1654],{},[910,1653,912],{}," 我也不是。（2012-06-26）",[904,1656,1657,1659],{},[910,1658,912],{}," 哈哈，这个说法很妙。（2012-07-28）",[904,1661,1662],{},"网友C：无论怎样，你都要相信国家的大趋势的方向永远是向前的，这是投资的前提，哪怕经济等各方面最终崩溃。",[904,1664,1665,1667],{},[910,1666,1035],{}," ：国家的说法有点复杂，比如很难想象北韩可以烂这么久。（2013-07-12）",[904,1669,1670,1671,1675],{},"网友：突然发现有个关于中国人口结构的问题，似乎有点触目惊心。请教大道，90后、00后人口数量锐减，是不是会对目前很多最终客户是年轻人，根基又不扎实的",[1027,1672,1674],{"href":1673},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","生意模式","逐渐产生致命影响？",[904,1677,1678,1680],{},[910,1679,912],{}," 会有影响，这个影响面会比大多数人想象的宽。（2015-05-23）",[904,1682,1683],{},"网友：（实体企业的寒冬）读完感到冬天真的来了！",[904,1685,1686,1688],{},[910,1687,912],{}," 谁的冬天？关于冬天的说法，茅台肯定是不同意的，我们也不太同意，类似观点的应该还有很多家企业，比如苹果，Google……（2016-02-23）",[904,1690,1691],{},"网友：现在你对与经济周期随之而来的股市周期怎么看？是不是可以在周期性股灾后的平稳期买一些有价值的股票（平时买经不起吓），然后放几年到牛市疯狂时候卖掉？你怎么看？",[904,1693,1694,1696],{},[910,1695,912],{}," 我对市场的七窍已经通了六窍，但目前对周期这一窍还完全不通，回答不了你这个问题。（2019-4-02）",[904,1698,1699],{},"网友：您会把您手中的资产做资产配置分成股票和固定收益两类吗？",[904,1701,1702,1704],{},[910,1703,912],{}," 我绝对不会去做固定收益的东西。固定收益的东西长期肯定是输给通胀的，所以长期来说是件错的事情。（2019-04-21）",[904,1706,1707],{},"网友：老总，您怎么看现在的贸易战呢？",[904,1709,1710,1712],{},[910,1711,912],{}," 从投资的角度看，会多出一些投资机会，因为好企业笑到最后的概率要大很多。（2019-06-26）",[904,1714,1715],{},"网友：段总，要想把国家大趋势和股市前景区分开来，对我来说好难啊，做长期投资不得不老是想到这些问题。在这种性格中，能成为价值投资者吗？",[904,1717,1718,1720],{},[910,1719,1035],{}," ：能看懂国家大趋势也是很了不起的事情哈，能帮你赚很多钱的。不过，如果其实看不懂的话，还不如不看？",[904,1722,1723],{},"网友：长期来说（30年），你看好还是看空中国经济呢？",[904,1725,1726,1728],{},[910,1727,1035],{}," ：和谁比？",[904,1730,1731],{},"网友：我等“巴菲特”出来说可以买股票了再买进还不迟。",[904,1733,1734,1736],{},[910,1735,912],{}," 巴菲特每次说的时间都不太对，但最后都是对的。这一次他已经说过了，包括股东大会他也说了：拿着现金是最危险的。记得有一次他说“我只是早了3年而已”。",[904,1738,1739,1741],{},[910,1740,912],{}," 好多人以为自己看看新闻就能比老巴明白，可笑不？",[904,1743,1744],{},"从预言中你可以得知许多预言者的信息，但对未来却所获无几。",[904,1746,1747],{},"网友：段哥，上午好。美债收益大幅度上涨，引起经济危机，那全球股市会剧烈震动吗？",[904,1749,1750],{},"大道：会呀，跟之前一样，每天都是剧烈震动的。你离得越近，震动的越厉害。（2026-08-18）",[904,1752,1753],{},"网友：美债达40万亿美元，会引发美元信用体系崩塌和经济危机吗？",[904,1755,1756],{},"大道：当然会啊！如果你现在拿着美金，该好好想想要换成什么货币了。如果你没美金，那恭喜你没这个烦恼。（2026-08-18）",[904,1758,1759],{},"网友：我很庆幸在我20多岁的时候经历了一轮完整的牛熊周期而不是40岁。",[904,1761,1762],{},"大道：其实没啥用的，因为“这一次跟以往不一样“这句话一直成立。（2026-08-10）",[904,1764,1765],{},"网友：想请教段总两点：",[904,1767,1768],{},"1、很多人很看好中国大陆的未来，我想问段总，在当前制度体系不做大的变更前提下，中国的未来真的会那么美好吗？很想听听在国内实体经济领域打拼多年的您能够发表点宝贵意见。",[904,1770,1771],{},"2、我看了看巴老09年初的就对公开上市公司部分的投资组合，消费类占比超过40%，其次为金融（20%），其中很多是跨国大企业。假如说制度、文化等都不是问题，不知道我们面对美国这些占据了先发优势的企业的竞争中，我们是否同样能够在很多领域成长出同样多的、甚至更伟大的企业？",[904,1773,1774,1776,1777,1780],{},[910,1775,1035],{}," ：1、我相信中国的未来一定是美好的，只是不知道你说的未来指的是多少年的未来？体制我也相信早晚一定会改的，因为不改进是会走不下去的。我们只是不知道这种改变需要多少年。太快肯定是不好的，fast is slow就是这个道理。太慢的",[1027,1778,109],{"href":1779},"\u002Fjihuichengben","又太高。这个大老板不好当啊。",[904,1782,1783],{},"2、不知道你指的是哪些企业，也不知道你的更伟大的定义是什么。客观讲，我个人的感觉总体上中国的企业水平目前还有点像我们的篮球，要更伟大好像不太可能啊。体制很可能是制约的重要因素之一，文化是另一个重要因素。这两个东西变过来，尤其是文化要改变非常不容易，没有个一两百年恐怕不行。（2011-01-08）",[904,1785,1786],{},"网友：我记得原来股市涨到点位很高，好像是5000点吧，段大哥就在一次访谈中就明确说了我看是有点高了，玩玩可以，赌身家是万万不能了。我看没有哪个“技术”专家明确说过这样的话。",[904,1788,1789,1791],{},[910,1790,912],{}," 我对大盘的判断很简单。如果你有足够的钱把所有股票买下来，然后赚所有上市公司赚的钱，如果你觉得合适，那这个大盘就不贵，不然就贵了。（这里还没算交易费呢）（2010-05-08）",[904,1793,1794],{},"网友：这里发表评论的人好像有一大部分是国外（好像大都是美国）的朋友。不知道国外的资本市场如何的发达，而国内的证券市场是一个畸形的政策市场，股市看政府的脸色，大部分股民都是赌徒。段总怎么看！",[904,1796,1797,1799],{},[910,1798,1035],{}," ：如果真是大多数投资金额都是在赌的话，那一定会有个时点可以赚大钱。",[904,1801,1802],{},"补充：我是说一定会有个时点（时间长了会有很多时点）价值投资者能赚大钱。",[904,1804,1805],{},"这里时点指的是一个时间区域。（2010-04-20）",[904,1807,1808],{},"网友K：这就是所谓“证券化率”。不过TOPCP兄弟你能说出“要是在GDP的1\u002F2以上，我就不再买股”这话，如果严格执行的话，真是一条不错的规则。",[904,1810,1811,1813],{},[910,1812,912],{}," 他这话对大盘而言是有道理的，对个股没道理。真这样就说明他非常棒，还有很大的进步空间，是成长股。（2010-06-07）",[904,1815,1816],{},"网友：预测大盘和个股是同一回事。长远来说，大盘也就是经济的反映。",[904,1818,1819,1821],{},[910,1820,912],{}," 预测一般指的是短期的东西，我不做预测。评估一个公司的价值是另一回事。那不是预测，是在描述一个现象，和预测无关。（2011-08-14）",[904,1823,1824],{},"网友：段总，房价一直涨，会不会有泡沫？而今天A股已经到了2491点，如果以价值投资来分析，我们如何分析目前A股股票的价值。",[904,1826,1827,1829,1830,1833],{},[910,1828,912],{}," 不知道你能否有数据了解这个A股市场。如果你用整个A股的企业价值（市值＋",[1027,1831,58],{"href":1832},"\u002Ffuzhai","-现金）去买下所有A股企业的价钱便宜吗？如果便宜则A股就便宜了，如果贵就还是贵。我没有数据，没分析过。",[904,1835,1836],{},"对于房价，如果你自己需要房子住，比较一下是租便宜还是买便宜就知道房价贵不贵了。短期而言价格和价值是有可能背离的，长期不会。",[904,1838,1839],{},"网友T：如果A股整个市值超过整个GDP那么我就认为牛市已经接近到顶了。如果A股整个市值低于GDP的1\u002F3或者还要低，那么接近熊底了，看好的股票可以买了，也差不多了。",[904,1841,1842,1844],{},[910,1843,912],{}," 这就是把大市当一只股票，对判断大市会很有帮助。",[904,1846,1847,1850],{},[910,1848,1849],{},"从我们卖学习工具的生意里好像也能体会到人口年龄层的变化","。算起来房地产泡沫(如果有的话)大概到这些人需要买房子的时候就该差不多了。(2011-01-10)",[904,1852,1853],{},"网友：请问大道如何看待AI泡沫？纳斯达克和标普高估值等于泡沫吗？",[904,1855,1856],{},"大道：AI的历史车轮滚滚向前，会碾碎所有ai的泡沫的。（2025-11-27）",[904,1858,1859],{},"网友：为什么老巴说买卖股票，你都不应基于宏观经济的预测。这个问题困扰我很久了。",[904,1861,1862,1864],{},[910,1863,912],{}," 你如果能用10年的眼光看企业你就明白了。（2014-3-22）",[904,1866,934,1867,1869],{},[910,1868,1035],{},"周期投资厉害很经典，不知道段总这次是否能躲过贝森特七伤拳的做空美股，春节到五一节之间。如果段总看到这条信息，不妨花个100万请卢麒元做个咨询。",[904,1871,1872],{},"大道：来了个大韭菜而已。（2025-11-14）",[904,1874,1875],{},"网友：我很想请教一下大道老师：消费不景气，对企业的影响有多大？我看了大道老师所有的发言，但这个问题似乎从没有提及。",[904,1877,1878],{},"大道：影响很大的。（2026-01-21）",[904,1880,1881,1882,1884],{},"网友：段老师您好，刚刚您说美股的股票贵了，",[910,1883,937],{},"持有大量现金，如美股崩盘了，对A股冲击有多大，影响是长期还是短期呢，望赐教。",[904,1886,1887],{},"大道：我哪里说美股贵了？你仔细看看？（2026-01-23）",[899,1889,1891],{"id":1890},"第四节-牛市与熊市","第四节 牛市与熊市",[904,1893,1894,1896],{},[910,1895,912],{}," 顺便讲一句，我个人认为抄底是投机的概念（没有褒贬的意思），价值投资者不应该寻求抄底。抄底是在看别人，而价值投资者只管在足够便宜的时候出手（不管别人怎么看）。",[904,1898,1899],{},"对我而言，如果一只股我抄底了，往往利润反而少，因为反弹时往往下不了手，所以容易失去机会。最典型的例子就是当年买万科时我们就正好抄到底了，郁闷啊（其实没那么郁闷，总比亏钱好），买的量远远少于我们的原计划。（2010-02-23）",[904,1901,1902],{},"网友：因此，正如段永平先生所说“事实上，我发现只有很少人会去真正认真地学（巴菲特）”，真正开始学的人就不多，加上估计企业的价值很需要一些无法量化的功夫，所以又有很多人学着学着跑了。这个领域的人其实并不多。bargain总是会出现，因为没有人可以用巴菲特的方法和洞察力分析整个市场的所有企业。",[904,1904,1905,1907,1908,1911,1912,1914,1915,1921],{},[910,1906,912],{}," 呵呵，我个人的理解是，如果有个公式可以赚大钱的话，那所有人都会用这个公式，然后赚大钱的就是卖公式的人。其实现实中就有很多人是靠教人看图看线赚钱的，但他们不靠看图看线投资赚钱。",[910,1909,1910],{},"赌场里也有很多看图看线的人，他们好惨啊"," 。",[1027,1913,52],{"href":1074},"不是个公式。",[910,1916,1917,1918,1920],{},"以我个人的经历而言，对",[1027,1919,52],{"href":1074},"的理解真的需要很多年，同时还真是需要有点悟性才行"," 。（2010-03-05）",[904,1923,1924],{},"网友：一直没弄懂，GE您咋就能买在最低价了呢？是运气好？还是知道底在哪里呢？",[904,1926,1927,1929],{},[910,1928,1035],{}," ：买到底部的就是运气！如果再掉多些我会买得更多。这世界没人知道底在哪，抄底就是投机。（2010-03-05）",[904,1931,1932,1933,1936],{},"网友：我认为bargain很容易看出来找到，只是人们到那时候反而不敢下手去买了，而且bargain也是需要无限的",[1027,1934,191],{"href":1935},"\u002Fnaixin","去等待的。耐心加勇气加理性加常识呵呵",[904,1938,1939,1941],{},[910,1940,912],{}," 不敢下手是人们不认为那是bargain。价值投资不需要勇气，需要的是对投资标的的了解。投机却需要很大的勇气。（2010-03-05）",[904,1943,1944],{},"网友：投资这东西除了智慧还需要胆量吧。",[904,1946,1947,1949],{},[910,1948,912],{}," 需要胆量的是投机，投资不需要勇气，也就是说当你需要勇气时你就危险了。（2010-03-16）",[904,1951,1952],{},"网友：钱少的时候更要投机！不然更没有希望了。",[904,1954,1955,1957],{},[910,1956,912],{}," 也可能是因为投机而钱少啊。谁不是从钱少过来的呢？（2010-03-18）",[904,1959,1960],{},"网友：那么请问我们应该赚投机人的钱还是被投机人的钱？",[904,1962,1963,1965],{},[910,1964,912],{}," 如果你也是投机人的话，这两种情况会交替出现。价值投资者眼里只看投资标的，不应该看别人。（2010-03-26）",[904,1967,1968],{},"网友：做波段是投机的特征之一。很难把握吧？",[904,1970,1971,1973],{},[910,1972,912],{}," 做波段当然是投机啊，而且是典型的投机。投资的眼睛是看着投资标的，投机的眼睛是看着别人的。呵呵，总有些人在某些波段能赚到钱，而另一波人在同一个波段亏钱。（2010-03-26）",[904,1975,1976],{},"网友：虽然目前我很喜欢投机而非投资，但不妨碍将来转向投资。",[904,1978,1979,1981],{},[910,1980,1035],{}," ：呵呵，投机是会上瘾的，不好改。这个是芒格说的。（2010-03-27）",[904,1983,1984],{},"网友：投机很难学到的。我还是先做：好业务、好管理、好价格的“三好学生”！",[904,1986,1987,1989],{},[910,1988,912],{}," 呵呵，你这话很精辟。其实投机比投资难学多了，但投机刺激，好玩，所以大多数人还是喜欢投机。（2010-03-27）",[904,1991,1992],{},"网友：我在想为什么我一开始就接触巴菲特和彼得林奇的价值投资，而中途又转向各种技术分析，后又思考价值投资．也许价值投资太过博大，易学难精，技术分析让人觉得有章可循，但却更容易陷入贪婪与恐惧中追涨杀跌。作为一个学投资的硕士生，我发现中国的证券投资教育好像也从没有向价值投资考拢的趋势．呵呵，希望老师能推荐几本经典给我们",[904,1994,1995,1997],{},[910,1996,912],{}," 看巴菲特的东西就够了。（2010-03-30）",[904,1999,2000],{},"网友：底没人能知道，短期是涨还是跌也是无法预测哦，但是便宜和贵我们还是能够知道的。模糊的正确胜过精确的错误。",[904,2002,2003,2005,2006,2009],{},[910,2004,1035],{}," ：呵呵，是不是底其实不重要。",[910,2007,2008],{},"抄底是投机的概念，眼睛是盯着别人的"," 。（2010-04-24）",[904,2011,2012,2014],{},[910,2013,1035],{}," ：呵呵，再说一遍，我认为抄底是投机的概念。",[904,2016,2017],{},"买股票时参考过去到过的价钱是危险的。抄底主要是看过去到过什么价，然后掉到一定程度跳进去，有可能真的会跳进去出不来的，如果不知道买的是什么的话。（2010-05-09）",[904,2019,2020],{},"网友：我日志里面有一篇专门请教你的问题，望不惜宝贵时间赐教，很多困扰我很久的问题。",[904,2022,2023,2025],{},[910,2024,1035],{}," ：如果我没有理解错的话，你的问题其实就是对“不懂不做”时，什么情况能叫懂。",[904,2027,2028],{},"我认为“懂”不是个绝对的概念，大概就是“毛估估”懂的意思。懂不懂只有自己才知道，任何别人都很难评价。比如说我觉得我懂ge的文化的价值，但不懂得人就会在其很便宜的时候把股票卖给我。",[904,2030,2031],{},"从投资的角度而言，当你觉得你买的股票掉的时候你真的不受影响的时候，你大概就是懂了（不是讲的心理因素），不然就有可能是在投机（尤其是当你觉得害怕的时候）。",[904,2033,2034],{},"比如，yahoo最近从今年的高点掉下来不少，我也重新review过我为什么投yahoo的理由，发现好的理由并没有任何减少，负面的东西也没有任何增加，我也就没有任何事情需要担心的了。",[904,2036,2037],{},[910,2038,2039],{},"投资和投机的很大差别其实就在这里。投机的很多理由是和市场上其他人的观点有很大关系的，而其他人的观点（市场的观点）可以变化的很快，所以投机人可能需要每天根据他自己投机的理由的变化做出调整。厉害的投机者（比如索罗斯）确实也有机会赚（亏）大钱，但是很累且不好学。",[904,2041,2042],{},[910,2043,2044],{},"比如前段时间我看到有报道说索罗斯开始大举投入黄金，理由是他已经看到了黄金的泡沫正在形成，现在还是泡沫的初级阶段，所以现在进去，等到泡沫破灭前出来就可以赚到大钱。呵呵，我想我大致明白他的意思，但我自己绝对没有能力去搞清楚现在泡沫到底处在哪个阶段。我可不想让自己的生活处在索罗斯们的阴影下，最后还要在泡沫破灭前做他的买家。",[904,2046,2047],{},[910,2048,2049],{},"投机是个刺激的游戏，建议喜欢玩的人一定要量力而行。",[904,2051,2052,2055],{},[910,2053,2054],{},"投资是个快乐的事情，投资人可以慢慢享受其过程。"," （2010-05-20）",[904,2057,2058],{},"网友：股票市场严格来说是一个以各种人性主体参与，以利益为核心的博弈文化。少而精确更容易取得博弈的主动权！",[904,2060,2061,2063],{},[910,2062,912],{}," 博弈是投机的概念（2010-05-20）",[904,2065,2066,1487,2068,2071],{},[910,2067,1035],{},[910,2069,2070],{},"我也确实见过一些懂看图看线的人长期也能赚钱，那就是（写书）教人怎么看图看线"," 。（2010-05-22）",[904,2073,2074],{},"网友：我今天只是Covered一些空头，我手上只有空头&Cash，明天看看Market可能去买一些，不急慢慢来买，因为Margin Call的l还没出手……",[904,2076,2077,2079],{},[910,2078,912],{}," 希望你有一天能理解老巴为什么讲不要做空时，你的投资就会再进一步。（2010-05-22）",[904,2081,2082],{},"网友：我刚开始也看图，不过三个月之后就放弃了，是不是投资人刚开始都要经过这一步啊？",[904,2084,2085,2087],{},[910,2086,1035],{}," ：呵呵，我也看过几天，就是不明白所有人看一张图，为什么可以得出相反的结论。（2010-05-24）",[904,2089,2090],{},"网友：你投资股票关注K线趋势图，成交量这些吗？经常看盘吗？",[904,2092,2093,2095],{},[910,2094,912],{}," 我不看图不看线不看盘。（2010-06-02）",[904,2097,2098,2099,2101],{},"网友X：学长对“看图看线”好像特别敏感啊，记得您已经质问过三四位朋友了，",[910,2100,912],{}," 呵呵，这几天陪朋友去赌场玩，也看图看线来着。（2010-07-04）",[904,2103,2104],{},"网友Y：阿段前辈是不是也懂看图看线呢？只是不用？是不是应该两手都要硬（价值投资和看图看线）？",[904,2106,2107,2109],{},[910,2108,912],{}," 我的水平已经到了知道不应该看图看线的地方。（2010-07-05）",[904,2111,2112],{},"网友：我每天在看市场目标赚$100，今天来回交易8次佣金去了$80，赚到$555还不错吧",[904,2114,2115,2117],{},[910,2116,912],{}," 你这种做法，时间长了一定没钱赚，搞不好连利息都赔掉啊（也许你已经知道了，但就是改不了）。为什么放着阳关道不走呢？看起来你也不笨，应该找个地方去面壁10天，也许能有所悟。（2010-07-07）",[904,2119,2120],{},"网友S：现在我大部分钱都买YHOO@$14左右；放着走阳光道！剩下两万多现金，用来day trading目标每天赚$100，来维持日常开销……",[904,2122,2123,2125],{},[910,2124,912],{}," 呵呵，day trading is good for fun。（2010-07-07）",[904,2127,2128],{},"网友B：都像您这样day trading，股市就成慈善机构了。",[904,2130,2131,2133],{},[910,2132,912],{}," 股市里很多人这样，不然那些行怎么活？（2010-07-08）",[904,2135,2136],{},"网友：我有个感叹，要是很多投资人能像段总那样，一进投资的世界把路就走对就好了，不用走很多弯路，我相信很多投资人都是从看图看线，浮躁的情绪中走过来的，是付出代价的。投资要是刚开始就做对的事情，走从企业出发的投资之路，肯定都会很出色。",[904,2138,2139,2141,2142,2145],{},[910,2140,912],{}," 呵呵，",[910,2143,2144],{},"我从来没用k线图决定过投资。到目前为止，我发现用过看图看线的人就很少有真正放弃的。其实，什么时候明白都一样，如果真的明白的话。"," （2010-07-09）",[904,2147,2148],{},"网友：见有一些文章提到，比如芒格继子说芒格以前每天晚上研究一番标普500指数，芒格看不看K线图这事儿得问段总，反正我没见过芒格，说啥都是个猜。",[904,2150,2151,2153],{},[910,2152,1035],{}," ：标普500指数可不是k线图啊。我就有标普500（SPR）的puts。这么无聊的问题。难道下次我见到芒格时先问他：你用k线图吗？k线图只能代表别人现在怎么看（买卖）这只股票，和你的观点本不应有关系的。如果谁还有问题，请先回到事物的原点。（2010-07-09）",[904,2155,2156],{},"网友：老巴从小就喝碳酸饮料，吃垃圾食品，健康状况为何会如此良好，仅仅是因为喜欢还是掌握什么长寿的秘诀？比如只做喜欢的事，只吃喜欢的东西，只要心情愉悦就能长寿？",[904,2158,2159,2161],{},[910,2160,912],{}," 这种问题应该有很多砖家啊。巴菲特身体好是因为不做短线，心情好。（2010-07-22）",[904,2163,2164],{},"网友：请教段大哥一个问题：股票价值投资者对社会整体创造财富有帮助吗？或者说，对比投机者，股票投资者对社会的贡献更大一些？",[904,2166,2167,2169],{},[910,2168,912],{}," 如果没有股市，很多好企业就根本无法开始。没有价值投资者，就根本没有股市。（2010-08-14）",[904,2171,2172],{},"网友C：没有投机者也没有股市，看来投资和投机都是要并存的。",[904,2174,2175,2177],{},[910,2176,912],{}," 其实没区别，差异在谁会生存下来。",[904,2179,2180,2183],{},[910,2181,2182],{},"同意，但从长远的角度看，投机者很难长期生存下来。难道大家没看到总是有很多人会告诫你说不要炒股或者说自己已经不炒股了？当然，当大家都认为该炒股时，价值投资者就该狂逃了"," 。（2010-08-15）",[904,2185,2186],{},"网友：刚报名了高校炒股大赛，4个交易周，应该很刺激。",[904,2188,2189,2191],{},[910,2190,912],{}," 那你白来这里了。（2010-11-10）",[904,2193,2194],{},"网友：误会啊，我的账户是做价值特投资的。我也知道炒股大赛都是短线投机（制度缺陷），但是很好玩啊，巴老和您不也觉得短线好玩吗？",[904,2196,2197],{},"没有白来。一直在看您的博客，今晚突然有个灵感：段总是教不会我投资的，唯一的办法是靠我自己去悟。一直都搞错了。",[904,2199,2200,2202],{},[910,2201,912],{}," 所谓有关投资的比赛其实都是比投机的，所以报名的都是投机的，所以你还没有基本的价值投资的概念。（2010-11-11）",[904,2204,2205],{},"网友：其实牛市来不来真的无所谓，牛市来了所有的股票都涨的差不多。好的股票是在熊市也在慢慢涨，而且熊市中的涨幅甚至超过牛市。",[904,2207,2208,2211],{},[910,2209,2210],{},"段永平：我个人认为牛熊市的叫法不是价值投资的。事实上也没有人真的知道什么时候是牛市什么时候是熊市（事后知道的挺多），而且大多数人在牛熊市都亏钱"," 。（2010-12-06）",[904,2213,2214],{},"网友：请教段总，芒格说“只要知道自己会死在哪里，然后就永远不去那个地方”，这话的普世哲理可以理解，但是运用到投资中，您认为他所指的主要是什么？",[904,2216,2217,2219],{},[910,2218,1035],{}," ：比如：芒格知道做空会出大问题，所以就不做空。知道用margin会破产就不用margin。巴菲特说过，他有很多很厉害的朋友最后都破产了，原因就是因为用了margin，所以不能用margin等等。（2011-01-14）",[904,2221,2222,2223],{},"段永平做客新浪财经 ",[910,2224,2225],{},"“最糟糕的投资方式”就是嘴上讲的是价值投资，干的却是投机的事。（2011-01-22）",[904,2227,2228],{},"网友：是呀，好在醒悟得早，归根到底我也不是学者，不是搞理论研究的，目标还是赚钱，看图看线不赚钱呢，现在找到老巴的理论，实在幸甚。",[904,2230,2231,2233],{},[910,2232,912],{}," 其实老巴并没有教我们什么。我们如果本来不懂的话，是没有人可以教会的。（2011-03-07）",[904,2235,2236],{},"网友：我最佩服的两种trader是：第一种是纯以forex为生的，因为炒forex比stock难。第二种是在中国大陆纯以A股为生的，因为没有dt，没有option，炒期指门槛高。这种人能长期存活并赚钱的是真正的牛，如果让他们操美股，那将是飞龙在天，游刃有余。各位都佩服什么样的人呢？",[904,2238,2239,2241],{},[910,2240,1035],{}," ：我佩服那些一直坚持不懈亏钱的人们。（2011-09-24）",[904,2243,2244,2246],{},[910,2245,912],{}," 交易员出身转到价值投资确实不容易，因为你的障碍会比别人多。你现在还偶尔看图看线吗？（2011-10-21）",[904,2248,2249],{},"刘志超：去年常看，今年看得少了，但偶尔也会看。现在看K线，不会像之前产生价格高或低的看法，也不会据此形成对未来走势的判断。炒股软件自买股后基本没打开过，看价格只在i美股看关注公司市值的变化。",[904,2251,2252,2254],{},[910,2253,912],{}," 呵呵，有进步哈。我发现价值投资对很多人来讲就像对面那座大山，看起来很近，实际上可能还很远。（2011-10-21）",[904,2256,2257],{},"刘志超：感谢大道的点拨。价值投资这条路对于我来说未来还很艰难，我会做好准备，踏实的走下去。",[904,2259,2260,2262],{},[910,2261,912],{}," 呵呵，在这么有乐趣有钱途的大道上干嘛那么一副苦大仇深的样子啊？（2011-10-21）",[904,2264,2265],{},"网友：雅虎要跌吗？感觉没人能挽救雅虎了，是不是可以空一把？",[904,2267,2268,2270],{},[910,2269,912],{}," 任何时候，只要你还想着要空一把谁，那就表示你还是个投机分子（以为自己比市场聪明）。早点收起做空头的念头吧，老老实实去找那些可以让你睡得好觉的deal！不过，投机是件非常好玩的事情，就像偶尔去下赌场一样，如果你做好输钱的准备的话（赌点小钱？）（2011-10-29）",[904,2272,2273],{},"网友：A股的投资者有希望吗？毕竟投不了美股，钱一直存银行也不是办法，今天下定决心投入50%仓位。",[904,2275,2276,2278],{},[910,2277,912],{}," 哪个股票市场里大部分“投资者”都是没希望的，牛市熊市都一样。好的“投资者”在哪个市场最后都能找到机会！（2011-12-15）",[904,2280,2281,2283],{},[910,2282,912],{}," 呵呵，我确实有过体验，发现和厉害的人打牌的时候，每次我有牌他总能fold，确实有意思。（2011-12-31）",[904,2285,2286],{},"网友L：对，主要是fish多。我同意你德州和投资是不同游戏的观点，尽管看起来有点像。",[904,2288,2289,2291],{},[910,2290,912],{}," 呵呵，投资和投机本来就是双胞胎一样，但实际上是两个人。（2011-12-31）",[904,2293,2294,2296],{},[910,2295,912],{}," 很好奇人们为什么会有2012年的投资策略和选股思路，难道年年不一样吗？或者说是看别人的反应不一样？（2012-01-10）",[904,2298,2299,2301],{},[910,2300,912],{}," 抄底就是投机，为什么被套牢后就成了价值投资了？老巴被套citi了吗？为什么没有？所谓的价值投资者不是口里喊几句价值投资就会成为价值投资的。真正的价值投资者是骨子里相信价值的。（2012-01-28）",[904,2303,2304],{},"网友：随便说一个方法开发一点思路。如果你发现有两个或以上的股票／ETF比较接近，考察一下内在关联机理，打个比方，SOHU／CYOU，SPY／EEM。建立模型，以模型为基础，建立一个对冲仓位，对对冲仓位进行历史数据分析，比如说你有一个对冲仓位的图表。那你就有点牛皮了，如果这个仓位的确有内涵的道理存……",[904,2306,2307,2309],{},[910,2308,1035],{}," ：这种工夫花得越多赚得越少。对冲的好处是该赚时不多赚，该赔时不少赔。（2012-03-14）",[904,2311,2312,2314],{},[910,2313,912],{}," 小翟能到今天确实不容易，也很了不起。感觉小翟对投资的理解还有些教条主义，还没有到骨子里，或许时间可以弥补，多关心些投资以外的东西或许也能有帮助？（2012-04-04）",[904,2316,2317],{},"网友：芒格说的应该是对的。专注根本的东西就是要排除不必要的信息，把精力放在最重要的事情上。",[904,2319,2320,2322],{},[910,2321,912],{}," 今天开车听广播时突然想起投资的不必要信息是非常多的，比如什么20天线、50天线啊，什么超买超卖啊等等等等。凡是过几年回头看觉得很无聊的信息都是应该被排除的。（2012-05-23）",[904,2324,2325],{},"网友：会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅．-----我认为这是投机。",[904,2327,2328,2330],{},[910,2329,912],{}," 同意你的说法。（2012-06-24）",[904,2332,2333,2334,2337],{},"网友H6688：你说“巴菲特的书里面没有具体写周期性的企业”，----看来对巴菲特的了解还是不够。巴菲特致股东信里曾详细回顾和反思了对纺织行业，航空公司投资失败的心路历程。并且，巴菲特·还由此总结出来“雪茄烟蒂型”投资的缺陷，从而总结并推崇竞争优势理论和",[1027,2335,68],{"href":2336},"\u002Fhuchenghe","理论。",[904,2339,2340,2342],{},[910,2341,1035],{}," ：我认识但斌，但还在想他怎么又过渡回看图看线了，说明这哥们骨子里还是有图有线的。（2012-08-11）",[904,2344,1231],{},[904,2346,2347,2349],{},[910,2348,1035],{}," ：那你认为看图看线应该放在第几位？（2012-08-13）",[904,2351,2352,2354],{},[910,2353,1035],{}," ：你这话给我的感觉像是说某人并不总是坏人，所以是好人的感觉。这话和但斌无关哈。",[904,2356,2357],{},[910,2358,1242],{},[904,2360,2361,2364],{},[910,2362,2363],{},"看图看线实际上就是看目前（这个时刻或时段）别人对股票的看法。所谓的价值投资者的心中是无图无线的！"," （2012-08-14）",[904,2366,2367,2370],{},[910,2368,2369],{},"段永平：最好的办法是不用杠杆，不然早晚会成无臂壮士了"," 。（2012-09-02）",[904,2372,2373],{},"网友：只根据数据和计算就投资，赚钱的人确实有，就是数学家James Simons，他是一个很厉害的几何学家，和陈省身起名，他们的很玄很玄的几何理论是很玄很玄的弦理论的基础，智力应该和我们凡人处在完全不同的位置上。他赚钱的基金Medellion，主要交易利率、外汇有关的衍生品，历史表现比索罗斯还强。",[904,2375,2376],{},"但他也有两个投资于股票市场的基金，Nova Fund和Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund，都跑输标普……？连这么聪明的人都没办法在股票市场上找出纯数据的策略，我们普通人更应该专心沿着巴菲特的朴素路线找投资机会了。",[904,2378,2379,2381],{},[910,2380,912],{}," 你知道有多少搞数学的人在搞投资吗？也许同样多猩猩去做同样的事情，从中也能找出一个能够在某段时期打败索罗斯的。我想我在过去10年的投资业绩（比例）肯定超过索罗斯，你觉得这个说明了以下的哪个？",[904,2383,2384],{},"1．计量经济毕业的学生战胜了索罗斯；",[904,2386,2387],{},"2．人大经济系毕业的烟酒生战胜了索罗斯；",[904,2389,2390],{},"3．浙大信电系毕业的学生战胜了索罗斯；",[904,2392,2393],{},"4．江西人战胜了索罗斯；",[904,2395,2396],{},"5．姓段的战胜了索罗斯；",[904,2398,2399],{},"6．高尔夫让他战胜了索罗斯；",[904,2401,2402],{},"7．其实他没战胜索罗斯；......",[904,2404,2405],{},"我估计能一直说下去，然后需要的人都可以找到自己喜欢的那条。（2013-04-02）",[904,2407,2408],{},"网友：段大哥谈了很多投资，可否谈一点点投机呢？",[904,2410,2411,2413],{},[910,2412,1035],{}," ：投资像种田，投机像打猎？（2013-04-18）",[904,2415,2416],{},"网友D：打猎若是不知道目标为何物是很危险的。",[904,2418,2419,2421],{},[910,2420,1035],{}," ：投机是零和游戏，大家互为猎物。（2013-04-18）",[904,2423,2424],{},"网友：不太懂……我已经上了船，但总是提心吊胆的，公司不是确实为股东而存在。",[904,2426,2427,2429],{},[910,2428,912],{}," 如果你提心吊胆就表示你不知道自己买了什么，或者叫在投机。当然，我知道有人喜欢提心吊胆的感觉，所以澳门的生意才那么好。有至少85%的人是不适合投资的，突然发现自己不适合也不是什么不好意思的事情，只要现在“回头是岸”，你的“不投资”表现至少可以比85%的人好哈。（2013-04-24）",[904,2431,2432],{},"网友：段总玩不玩德州扑克？我感觉德州扑克和投资有很大的相似性，打打德州扑克可以磨磨人的性格，在这个游戏里面，赢的多的人不是最聪明的，而是最有理性的人。",[904,2434,2435,2437],{},[910,2436,912],{}," 不太像投资，倒有点像投机。（2013-07-01）",[904,2439,2440],{},"网友：不知道在a股市场里有谁是价值投资的成功者，那个最牛的王亚伟是专业的重组垃圾股的投资者。朋友们能介绍几个a股的价值投资的成功者吗？好好的学学！",[904,2442,2443,2445],{},[910,2444,912],{}," 林园算一个。（2013-07-07）",[904,2447,2448],{},"网友T：还有不少人说起哪个公司的股票，都是提代码。有时候我在想，又不是囚犯，干嘛不直接说名字，难道代码更容易记？",[904,2450,2451,1487,2453,2456],{},[910,2452,1035],{},[910,2454,2455],{},"一般而言，一说就是“票”或代码的都是在trade，我还没见过例外。"," （2014-09-23）",[904,2458,2459,2461,2462,2465],{},[910,2460,1035],{}," ：难道不应该是一样的吗？！任何时候，",[1027,2463,17],{"href":2464},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","都应该摆在第一位，就投资而言，想不明白5年10年的公司最好不要碰哈。（2015-06-27）",[904,2467,2468],{},"网友：讲“牛市以及熊市的投资策略”的人不多不少都有一些投机的心态吧。",[904,2470,2471,2473],{},[910,2472,1035],{}," ：应该叫“或多或少”不过，这里用或多或少可能也不太合适。想着牛熊市本身就是投机，不是或多或少的问题。（2015-06-28）",[904,2475,2476],{},"网友：我没见过经营企业还分牛市卖掉，熊市买回的！",[904,2478,2479,2481],{},[910,2480,1035],{}," ：这个例子不错。（2015-06-28）",[904,2483,2484,1487,2486,2489],{},[910,2485,1035],{},[910,2487,2488],{},"用margin就必须要“风控”，希望短期炒一把赚点快钱也必须要“风控”。老老实实买自己看得懂的好企业，想着10年都不卖的人是没道理用margin的，不然赚的钱都变成利息给人了。"," （2015-07-09）",[904,2491,2492,2494],{},[910,2493,912],{}," 我也想过这么做来着，谁不想赚差价啊，但这么做的结果基本上都是瞎忙半天还少赚了，所以以后就不再想干这种事情了。知其不可为也很重要啊。（2019-05-20）",[904,2496,2497],{},"【引用】巴菲特语录：想要在股市从事波段操作是神做的事，不是人做的事。",[904,2499,2500],{},"网友：我是一个职业投资者，我很喜欢老巴的投资理念，也知道老巴说过的三不原则，请问我长期低杠杠投资比方说0.3倍以内，融资成本六个点，在股指偏低位建仓，国内融资盘大概要跌七成才会爆仓，再假设每年我平均投资收益2 0%，这种低杠杠长线价值投资策略可以吗？",[904,2502,2503,2506],{},[910,2504,2505],{},"段永平：勿以恶小而为之"," 。（2019-05-20）",[904,2508,2509],{},"网友n：这一切都会过去的：98年亚洲金融危机，2000年科技网络股泡沫破裂，08年美国次贷危机，15年股灾，当前的贸易战……",[904,2511,2512,2514],{},[910,2513,912],{}," 炒股最危险的日子是礼拜一，其次分别是礼拜五，礼拜四，礼拜二，礼拜三。类似的话好像是海明威说的？（2019-05-24）",[904,2516,2517],{},"网友：我是一名操盘手，目前做的不是很好，做了五年了。对股票很热爱，平时工作不是很忙，周围很多朋友建议我转行当老师，薪资待遇会更好一些。由于投资并不需要盯盘，我想问一下我应该继续现在的工作多看看各类报告还是多转行看看设身处地了解各行各业。我的经济压力并不是很大。很多人说隔行如隔山，但证券行业确实不是太景气。我想工作投资两不误是不是贪心了。",[904,2519,2520,2522],{},[910,2521,1035],{}," ：我不了解证券行业，但投资一直很好啊。确实隔行如隔山，我回答不了你的问题。（2019-09-10）",[904,2524,2525,2527],{},[910,2526,912],{}," 投资非常像种田，是个结硬寨，打呆仗的过程，所以投资者就像农夫。投机则像狩猎，是个零和游戏，投机者之间互为猎物，非常刺激。（2020-11-20）",[904,2529,2530],{},"网友：A股有时像赌场甚至不如赌场有规则，吴敬琏老师几年前也这样认为，不知道现在是不是？",[904,2532,2533,2535],{},[910,2534,912],{}," 在投机的人的眼里，哪个市场都是赌场，美国也一样。吴敬琏老师的意思可能是认为A股的投机比例特别高些。我认为是正常的，美国投机的人也很多，不然我们怎么赚钱？",[904,2537,2538],{},"网友：有人出个对联：追题材割蓝筹股股亏损，拆东墙补西墙墙墙有洞！",[904,2540,2541,2543],{},[910,2542,912],{}," 横批：钱越玩越少。",[904,2545,2546],{},"网友S：我回个。是借段先生一个幽默写的。先抄底再割肉刀刀痛心，睡半夜哭醒后哭哭再睡。横批：底越抄越低。",[904,2548,2549,2551],{},[910,2550,1035],{}," ：很正常，抄底本来就是投机的概念。",[904,2553,2554,2556],{},[910,2555,912],{}," “价值投资者容易抄底抄在半山腰，花旗银行的股价从60美元跌至1美元的过程中就套牢了一大批试图抄底的价值投资者。”？",[904,2558,2559,2561],{},[910,2560,912],{}," 想想不认错的后果可能就没那么疼了。",[904,2563,2564],{},"网友L：坐在桌上打牌的时候，我会不自禁的去观察每个人的表情和动作，给他建立一套打牌风格。",[904,2566,2567,2569],{},[910,2568,912],{}," 我也很喜欢打德州扑克，但不觉得这个游戏和投资的关系很大。投资的时候我是可以完全忽略别人的，但打牌的时候却必须时刻关注别人的反应，所以觉得打牌确实像博弈。",[904,2571,2572],{},"网友L：我发现在牌桌上有一种人，只按着自己的套路打牌，长期算下来总账是赢不少的。因为总有人在他已经成牌的情况下仍然愿意花大钱去买牌。",[904,2574,2575,2577],{},[910,2576,912],{}," 那是因为对手的水平不高吧？",[904,2579,2580],{},"网友：【十大投资书籍】1、《超越金融——索罗斯的哲学》；2、《曹仁超创富智慧书》；3、《一个证券分析师的醒悟》；4、《恐慌与机会》；5、《投机教父尼德霍夫回忆录》；6、《彼得·林奇教你理财》；7、《小心！这是投资圈套》；8、《邓普顿教你逆向投资》；9、《趋势跟踪》；10、《华尔街幽灵》",[904,2582,2583,2585],{},[910,2584,912],{}," 一本都没看过［汗］，惭愧。不过也顺便说明不看这些书也是可以做好投资的。这种书看多了对投资一定是帮倒忙的。芒格讲要过滤掉不必要的信息大概就是这个意思吧。",[904,2587,2588],{},"问：您认为融资风险非常大，在资本市场用融资这个手段，在可持续发展上会遇到很大问题？",[904,2590,2591,2593,2594,2597],{},[910,2592,912],{}," 对，因为",[910,2595,2596],{},"你从事的是很长期的事业，但是用到融资就变成短期的投机了，"," 一旦价格影响，就会导致你出现巨大的亏损，这样就不合算了。本来找对了目标却用了错误的方法，最后可能赔钱。（2006-07-07）",[904,2599,2600],{},"网友F：感觉段总把投机和赌博搞混了。相信您一定没看过jesse livermore的How to Trade in Stocks（杰西·利弗摩尔\u003C股票大作手操盘术>）。他开篇的一段话就说明了投机不是赌博：“投机，天下最彻头彻尾充满魔力的游戏。但是，这个游戏愚蠢的人不能玩，懒得动脑子的人不能玩，心理不健全的人不能玩，企图一夜暴富的冒险家不能玩。",[904,2602,2603],{},"这些人如果贸然卷入，到头来终究是一贫如洗。”",[904,2605,2606],{},"投机其实很简单，只是因为人性都喜欢复杂，把它也搞复杂了。",[904,2608,2609,2611],{},[910,2610,912],{}," 你说的有道理。我其实从来不认为投机是贬义，有朋友说投机就是“投资在机会上”，呵呵。我只是认为投资和投机不是一种游戏。从投资的角度看，投机确实有点像赌博。也许从赌博的角度看，投机有点像投资？（2010-03-28）",[904,2613,2614],{},"网友K：不好意思，个人的理解是：赌场只有资产的转移，没有资产的增值。A股至少到目前为止现状类此。然后赌场算是规矩清晰，而A股规矩缺失，并且也违规没有强硬彻底的追究。所以吴老说A股不如赌场。说到投机，个人认为理智的投机者也是极其讲究和依赖逻辑的，不过可能他们不苛求逻辑链条的全部的清晰严谨，而允许有部分环节的灵活弹性哈。请段总交流一下。",[904,2616,2617],{},"呵呵如果引入逻辑这个概念，那么从投资的角度来看，投机确实不够严谨清晰，而因为风险无处不在，所以：不清晰＋风险无处不在＝收益不可靠，赌博的收益也不可靠，所以它们像。不过在赌博角度，赌博纯运气主宰，非条理、不靠谱、无需专业训练，而无论投资投机，总是靠谱的，有想法并按想法下手，所以它们像哈。",[904,2619,2620,2622],{},[910,2621,912],{}," 呵呵，有道理。像我这种普通老百姓还是觉得学投机太难了，还很难赚钱，何苦呢？（2010-03-28）",[904,2624,2625],{},"网友：今天看到金岩石的文章，让我又想起了索罗斯的价值投资之外，泡沫投资方式，记得索罗斯说过，我看到泡沫开始时建仓，等泡沫成熟时撤出。",[904,2627,2628],{},"金岩石的说法是这样的：当人们一讲到泡沫时都以下假设，我觉得这是个错误的观念，只要是泡沫就会破，而且只要泡沫生成必然马上要破，当年我们对资产泡沫缺乏理论认识，最近研究逐渐开始让人们认识泡沫是可能长期存在的，而且泡沫实际上是现代社会一种财富形态，它可能会在未来的某一个时点破，这就意味着风险在上升，但是我们有可能需要接受泡沫资产化和泡沫会长期存在的事实。",[904,2630,2631,2633],{},[910,2632,1035],{}," ：呵呵，这就是有水平的投机？（2010-04-04）",[904,2635,2636],{},"网友：我是从技术分析转向价值投资的，但一直以来一个问题始终比较困惑，在坚定的持有一支股票的过程中，出现了许多技术共振指标，明知道要下跌，却因坚定的持有而没有卖，坐了几次的过山车。所以我想请教您，如果执行波段操作，是否违背了价值投资？深为困惑，望您指点津。",[904,2638,2639,2641],{},[910,2640,1035],{}," ：波段操作没有违背价值投资。我觉得波段操作根本就不是价值投资。（2010-05-08）",[904,2643,2644],{},"网友：如果市场恐惧和疯狂的程度可以大致评估的话，恐惧到什么程度可买进？疯狂到什么程度应抛出？是否有1个可量化的指标？或曰1个可量化的参照物？段总在“可买进”的时候初始仓位一般控制在多少呵呵？然后若股价递减多少时增仓多少？呵呵。",[904,2646,2647,2649],{},[910,2648,912],{}," 炒股票啊？你这样炒股怎么可能天天开心呢？这种想法的结果一定是天天操心。（2011-01-05）",[904,2651,2652],{},"网友：基于对价值的估计，在价格过高时做空算不算价值投资？",[904,2654,2655,2657],{},[910,2656,912],{}," 做空不是价值投资，因为你经常需要面对市场的疯狂，最糟糕的是，你不知道市场到底有多疯狂，所以做空会睡不好觉的。总而言之，价值投资就是那种能睡好觉的投资。（2011-05-22）",[904,2659,2660],{},"网友：话虽如此，但段总是在已经连续大跌的美股市场抄底明显折价的美股，而信奉价值投资的各位博友，热衷的却是于现在就参与到全球表现一枝独秀的A股抄底，担心诸位在国内房地产泡沫破灭，地方债风险充分暴露，经济短期大调整的时候，会遭遇不小的损伤。段总虽常说不太了解A股，在此关键时刻，难道没有一两句关于A股市场的话要提点给大家？",[904,2662,2663,2666],{},[910,2664,2665],{},"段永平：总觉得抄底是投机者的做法。我眼里没什么a股，美股市场，我只关心公司。"," （2011-08-18）",[904,2668,2669],{},"网友：做空挺累，入市以来唯一挣钱的是苹果，老乔逝世后，从350涨到了560，涨了60%但我整个盘子现在只盈利8%，盈利都被做空侵蚀了。从A股过来的人，总是免不了要经历这一阶段，小孩玩火，越禁忌越玩。烧痛了手，也就罢手了。",[904,2671,2672,2674],{},[910,2673,1035],{}," ：老调重弹：不做空、不margin，不做不懂的东西。什么时候明白都不晚，不过真的明白恐怕都是在付出大代价之后。（2012-03-14）",[904,2676,2677],{},"网友：做了个很大的决定，申请融资融券账户了！段大哥一直说不要借钱，还是忍不住啊！",[904,2679,2680,2682],{},[910,2681,912],{}," 从此你会有个激动人心的生活！（2012-08-10）",[904,2684,2685],{},"网友：巴菲特说：“查理和我对做空都不陌生，我们两个都失败了。”芒格谈做空则表示：“我们不喜欢以痛苦地交易来换金钱。”我想问段大哥的是：做空为什么会失败和做空为什么会痛苦？",[904,2687,2688,1487,2690,2693],{},[910,2689,1035],{},[910,2691,2692],{},"我不想解释，反正说了也没用。人们不吃点亏是没法明白的哈。","（2013-11-07）",[904,2695,2696],{},"网友：好像林园说过，他在熊市末期喜欢买入可转债，现在有些可转债到期收益率达到5%左右，风险应该不大！",[904,2698,2699,2701],{},[910,2700,912],{}," 知道到了熊市末期居然还会买债券？居然还有人信？（2014-02-21）",[904,2703,2704],{},"老调重弹：不做空、不用margin，不做不懂的东西。什么时候明白都不晚，不过真的明白恐怕都是在付出大代价之后。",[904,2706,2707],{},"买自己不懂的东西是为什么85%的人可以在牛市熊市都亏钱的原因。没有比因为股票涨了很多而买人更荒唐的理由了。(2015-06-26)",[904,2709,2710,2711,2719],{},"我投资中的不为清单(StopDoing List)很简单，就是不懂不碰。懂主要集中在两个方面：",[910,2712,2713,2715,2716],{},[1027,2714,64],{"href":1673},"和",[1027,2717,129],{"href":2718},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","。(2020-10-10)",[904,2721,2722],{},"网友：不到两周的时间，很多讲故事的公司已经跌去50%以上的幅度了……借钱做不懂的，就如同开车加速去撞墙……（2015-06-26）",[904,2724,2725,2728],{},[910,2726,2727],{},"段永平：买自己不懂的东西是为什么85%的人可以在牛市熊市都亏钱的原因"," 。没有比因为股票涨了很多而买入更荒唐的理由了。（2015-06-26）",[904,2730,2731],{},"巴菲特：市场就像上帝一样，帮助那些自己帮助自己的人，但与上帝不一样的地方是，他不会原谅那些不知道自己在做什么的人。",[904,2733,2734,2735,2738],{},"网友：这次事件（2015年7月股市暴跌），让我体会到，无论是市场监管者和市场参与者，做好风险控制都是至关重要的，可以说是首要职责和投资的前提。而作为个人投资参与者，巴菲特讲的不做空、不借钱做保证金交易、不做不懂的东西、留足",[1027,2736,95],{"href":2737},"\u002Fanquanbianji","，这些讲的就是关于风险控制的事，对吗？",[904,2740,2741,2743],{},[910,2742,1035],{}," ：我从来不做风控。银行需要风控是因为银行需要借钱进来还要借钱出去。投资的风控是什么意思我不太知道，但投机是绝对需要风控的。（2015-07-08）",[904,2745,2746],{},"网友：老段，价值投资的东西在这里学习了太多，再次谢过！但是我有一个毛病，帮我诊断一下。就是我还是经常看行情（就是看图看线），虽然看图看线不作为决策依据。要不要戒掉？",[904,2748,2749,2751],{},[910,2750,912],{}," 不用谢哈，反正你啥也没学会。（2015-12-06）",[904,2753,2754],{},"网友：您说的我理解，我的意思是我们要不要需要经常看公司的市值（股价），主要目的是和我们心中公司内在价值比较。以免不错过投资机会。",[904,2756,2757,2759],{},[910,2758,912],{}," 看个股价不需要看图看线的，偶尔看下就可以了，常看容易短视。（2015-12-10）",[904,2761,2762],{},"网友：我是07年5200点入市，10多年来在股市收益己远超我的其他所有收入之和。到现在我仍会追高杀跌，仍会关注持仓每日的价格并受困扰。我的投资主要是精选个股中短期持有（几天-24个月）．对于过去的投资结果，我自己总结是运气和选股。",[904,2764,2765],{},"我的问题是：这几个月，我常常有减少交易频次，精选企业并长期投资的想法，常常有一种站在某个门槛之外，跨过去就更上一层楼的感觉，请问，我是否需要改变交易方式，这种感觉是否是长期盈利之后的某种自我膨胀？",[904,2767,2768,2770],{},[910,2769,1035],{}," ：你真的想改变吗？我认识一个球友，非常好赌，输了很多钱（过10亿人民币了），怎么劝都是没用。他本来做生意赚了不少钱，但赚得越多就赌得越大。对有些人来说，赌的快感是非常有吸引力的，理性有时候难以抗衡哈。（2019-09-16）",[904,2772,2773],{},"问：长线持有、非多元化，这样的投资理念是否需要极大的勇气？",[904,2775,2776,2778],{},[910,2777,1035],{}," ：投资不需要任何勇气。投资做的是“两块钱的东西，一块钱卖给你”的生意，这不需要任何勇气，只需要你确信它是值两块钱的。反之，一个投资者，如果需要借助勇气，那么说明他正在恐慌。之所以恐慌，是因为他对投资产品的不了解，而这恰恰是与巴菲特“不做空，不借钱炒股，不做不懂的东西”的投资戒律相抵触的。需要勇气的都是投机。",[904,2780,2781],{},"区别投资和投机这两种类似行为的一个有效办法就是，当股票价格下跌的时候，投资者不会感到恐慌和害怕，而投机者会。",[904,2783,2784],{},"网友：请问段老师，你对美国的威廉·欧奈尔（William J. O’Neil）（国内有他的译著‘ How To Make Money In Stocks’ by William J. O'Neil（198 8），中译本名为《笑傲股市》。‘24 Essential Lessons For Investment Suc cess’ by William J.",[904,2786,2787],{},"O'Neil（1999），中译本名为《股票投资的24堂必修课》。‘The Successful Investor’ by William J. O'Neil（2003），中译本名为《股票买卖原则》。",[904,2789,2790],{},"‘How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short’，co-author w ith Gil Morales，Wiley（December 24，2004），ISBN 0471710490，中译本名为《如何在卖空中获利》。）以及维克多·斯波朗迪（著有《专业投机原理》）他们的技术分析有什么看法？你在投资过程中会参考技术分析吗？",[904,2792,2793,2795],{},[910,2794,912],{}," 投资看这些书很容易亏钱的。（2010-03-30）",[904,2797,2798],{},"网友S：我和art讨论的是那个B-S公式波幅标准差σ如何确定的问题。",[904,2800,2801,2803],{},[910,2802,1035],{}," ：哦。我不知道什么是B-S公式，但我可能会bs任何公式的。（2010-08-15）",[904,2805,2806],{},"网友：但斌的水平真的不怎么样！他学习价值投资比较照搬，没有真正领悟。",[904,2808,2809,2811],{},[910,2810,912],{}," 但斌的水平比绝大多数人还是要高很多的。（2010-10-30）",[904,2813,2814],{},"网友：行家一出手，就知有没有。会卖是重要的，会买是非常重要的。对价值投资者来说买入已经决定成功与否了。",[904,2816,2817,2819],{},[910,2818,912],{}," 其实会不会买和会不会卖对价值投资是一件事，看成两件事就表示有投机成分在里面了。（2012-06-26）",[904,2821,2822],{},"网友S：投资也好，投机也罢，都是博弈。今年最大的收获是临近年底，才能将价值，趋势和交易融合在一起。也是临近年底，才开始体会理解了一些如何识别好的生意模式。",[904,2824,2825,2827],{},[910,2826,912],{}," 其实投机是博弈，非常需要水平，也很难学，反正我学不会，觉得太累。投资像打golf，只管自己打好就行了，其实和别人干什么没有直接关系，虽然结果看起来是有关的。（2012-12-31）",[904,2829,2830],{},"网友J：西蒙斯和Edward Thorp估计是极其少数可以在20-30年的交易历史里从事量化投资稳定盈利的（从这个角度，他们激励着一些人去寻找圣杯）。但是相比价值投资来说，估计难了很多，不然，华尔街那么多从事量化投资的基金早就扬名立万了，他们都是顶尖学府毕业的高材生。",[904,2832,2833],{},"2008年，美国、加拿大、欧洲等倒了很多的量化基金，巴菲特却在那个时刻拥有充足资金，公开发表了买入的言论。量化交易的魅力可能是看起来“短平快”+“融资便利”，我曾经花了不少时间去研究，也知道有人花了10年光阴去研究这个，结果白忙一场，如果当初他静心走价值投资的路，可能结果会好很多。段总关于您的留言的回复让我想了好一会。",[904,2835,2836],{},"“条条道路都可能通罗马，这里是一条未必最好但肯定能到的。”",[904,2838,2839,2841],{},[910,2840,912],{}," 其实这句话的意思和丘吉尔那句话差不多。可惜很多人都是非要试过别的路才会醒悟过来的，当然，大部分人会一直寻找捷径的。",[904,2843,2844,2845,2848,2849],{},"你能记住这句话说明你有悟性，有悟性不去悟就可惜了。其实那句话的意思是投资只有价值投资一条路。",[910,2846,2847],{},"量化投资就像赌场里的看图看线，有时候真准啊，就是没办法事先知道到底哪次会是准的。我烟酒生时学的是计量经济学，如果量化投资真管用的话，那现在世界上最有钱的一定都是我以前的那些老师和同学们或其他数学家们"," ，",[910,2850,2851],{},"啥时候能轮到那些数学其实不那么好的人们？",[904,2853,2854,2857],{},[910,2855,2856],{},"这个悖论真得那么难懂吗？"," （2013-04-03）",[904,2859,2860],{},"网友b：华人里面做价值投资的真的不多，都是号称自己是价值投资者，我们还是学习巴菲特和老段吧！",[904,2862,2863,2865],{},[910,2864,1035],{}," ：华人和其他人里面100%真正做价值投资的人本来就不多。但其实大多数投资人都或多或少都是价值投资者，经常能看到深一脚浅一脚的价值投资者，可能包括自己在内。（2013-04-07）",[904,2867,2868],{},"网友：一直有几个问题：炒股时的感觉到底是不是快乐的。我很多时候就不快乐，困惑，焦虑。不快乐为什么炒股呢？为了赚钱炒股，还是应该是因为有了钱再投资股票。我觉得很多人都是为了赚钱，这是不是有问题呢？他们能快乐吗？怎么样才能快乐投资呢？",[904,2870,2871,2873],{},[910,2872,912],{}," 这个问题你可能需要去问炒股的人们吧？我其实也很好奇炒股的人们到底是在干什么。（2013-05-24）",[904,2875,2876],{},"网友X：读书是学习的一个的途径，但毕竟每个人学习的方法都一些不同。在这里交流也算是一种学习吧。",[904,2878,2879,2881],{},[910,2880,912],{}," 学习除了看外，最重要的是悟。那么多人读着看图看线的书，如何才能学会投资呢？（2015-01-15）",[904,2883,2884],{},"网友：如何能快速入睡是一个大大的课题。如能解决失眠的问题，是对人类的一大贡献啊。",[904,2886,2887,2889],{},[910,2888,1035],{}," ：对有些人而言，不用margin会容易入睡很多哈。（2015-07-04）",[904,2891,2892],{},"网友：那我要是想经常关注公司市值，不经常看的话那怎么知道呢？",[904,2894,2895,2897],{},[910,2896,912],{}," 关注生意而不是股价。（2015-12-08）",[904,2899,2900],{},"网友：“如果你是个投资者，你会关注资产怎么增值；如果你是个投机者，你会常常关心市场价格将会怎么波动。这不是我们的游戏。”",[904,2902,2903,2905],{},[910,2904,912],{}," 应该是这个意思。（2016-12-22）",[904,2907,2908],{},"网友：从前景上看10年20年后有很多的票都很有前景，为什么您能做到只持有茅台不动心过其它的？……",[904,2910,2911,2913],{},[910,2912,912],{}," 把公司叫票的人大概内心深处都是炒家，你不会真的在乎10年20年的，说了也没啥用哈。（2019-05-21）",[904,2915,2916],{},"网友：你怎么看美国这个事件（贸易战）对中国电子产业和科技的影响。作为投资人，面对当前的情形从中长期来看应该怎么做？",[904,2918,2919,2921],{},[910,2920,912],{}," 长期来说，该干嘛干嘛！（2019-05-23）",[904,2923,2924],{},"网友：我95年开始投资中国香港股市，至今个人账户市值升值数千倍，2011年成立投资公司投资港股，公司市值至今却几乎无增长，个人觉得成功投资不可复制，段大哥如何看法？",[904,2926,2927,2929],{},[910,2928,1035],{}," ：很久以前，有人对我说，股市就是个赌场，我说不是，他坚持说是。我突然悟到：对那些说股市是赌场的人来说，那就是赌场！（2019-09-16）",[904,2931,2932],{},"网友：我集中精力学习研究在2，3个行业上面，资金也都放在2，3个票上……。",[904,2934,2935,1487,2937],{},[910,2936,1035],{},[910,2938,2939],{},"非常讨厌有人把公司股票叫“票”，对自己投资的公司没有一点尊重或喜欢的感觉。",[904,2941,2942],{},"网友：行为上该怎么区别投资和投机呢？",[904,2944,2945,2947],{},[910,2946,912],{}," 其一，你是在动用大笔钱还是小笔钱。在我看来，投机有点像在赌场玩，不能下重注，也不可能赢大钱。投资的概念就是可以下重手，没有很高的把握，比如90%左右，就不应该出手。",[904,2949,2950],{},"其二，当股价下跌时，投机和投资的态度正好相反。投资者看到股价下跌，往往很开心，因为有机会买到更便宜的东西，而投机者想的是，公司肯定是出什么事情了，赶紧走人。",[904,2952,2953],{},"投资和投机是很不同的游戏，看起来又非常像。就像在中国澳门，开赌场的是投资者，赌客是投机者。赌场总有源源不断的客源，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赌客总是赢钱的比较大声些。",[904,2955,2956],{},"作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人。不懂不碰，至少85%的人不适合投资。",[904,2958,2959],{},"网友：我不得不说，虽然任何时候都有投资的机会，现在一定是最好的时机。我的问题是缺钱，房贷，小孩子等各项开支。真希望现在的行情能持续一年，这样我还能存点钱投资。现在是下大注的时候。投自己懂的企业。",[904,2961,2962,2964],{},[910,2963,912],{}," 投资是一辈子的乐趣，现在也未必就是最好的机会。只有你了解的好公司特别便宜的时候才是最好的机会，和大盘其实不一定有关。（2011-09-20）",[904,2966,2967],{},"网友：最近很多国内的亲戚开始热烈讨论股票，街头巷尾都在流传着炒股致富的故事，甚至官方媒体上都在报道老人炒股多少多少年，为孙子买房子的新闻。我回家跟亲戚们聊天，觉得大家都像着了魔，全在聊K线图、国家政策一定会保股市什么的，我有一种随时会出大事的不安感觉。（2015-04-18）",[904,2969,2970,2972],{},[910,2971,1035],{}," ：可能是泡沫的初期，也可能是中期或者末期。（2015-04-18）",[904,2974,2975,2977,2978,2981],{},[910,2976,1035],{}," ：金融客",[1027,2979,160],{"href":2980},"\u002Fpingtai","：您如何看待现在实体经济疲弱、股市猛涨的状况？吴敬琏：在农村，农忙的时候大家没空都埋头干活，农闲的时候大家有空就赌博。加尔布雷斯有一本书讲美国的股市（小编注：《1929年大崩盘》），他说美国人健忘，25年就忘了。现在看来，中国人更健忘。现在的情况不太正常，如果继续放钱，问题会更严重。但现在市场是一片狂热。",[904,2983,2984],{},"泡沫迟早是要破的，但什么时候破没有人知道，美国那次大危机之前就有7年的繁荣，很多人觉得这个时候如果袖手旁观会错过发财的良机。所以我只能提醒大家谨慎。（2015-04-18）",[904,2986,2987,2988],{},"网友：段大哥说的很对，stay with好公司永远是王道，而且越低越应该买入．但我一直有一个疑惑是，我看老巴传记\u003C",[2989,2990,2992],"snow",{"ball":2991},"",">，里面提到1969年，巴菲特认为市场估值太高，宣布解散公司“退休”，这一休息就是5年．那未来一两年我们可能回面临一个相似的市场：美联储加息，缩表，和史上最高的市值。",[904,2994,2995],{},"那我们也该学当年的老巴，减少一些手中的仓位为下一次危机准备弹药吗？",[904,2997,2998,3000],{},[910,2999,912],{}," 如果你认为该减少一些的话，为什么不是全部呢？如果你觉得你拥有的公司太贵了你就该都卖了，除非留点做纪念，不然留一部分赌市场再涨一点吗？老巴当年是看着自己手里的东西而不是看着市场吧？老巴当年不干了是因为实在找不到自己敢买的公司，拿着大家的钱不舒服，所以就干脆解散了。（2018-09-12）",[904,3002,3003],{},"网友：A股今天4121点，以后如果过高了，请段总给大家一下预警！",[904,3005,3006],{},"2007年7月，段总在波士堂说：“我也不能说这股市高了低了，说它高了，大家确实会不高兴，虽然我确实是那样认为的”，诚实而委婉的提出预警！",[904,3008,3009],{},"2007年10月巴菲特全部卖出中石油！",[904,3011,3012],{},"李嘉诚2007年5月提出A股预警，“内地股市的PE达50倍至60倍，是惊人的市盈率，所以希望市民量力而为”品质、能力同样一流的人才啊！2015-04-15",[904,3014,3015,3017],{},[910,3016,912],{}," 算大市是不是贵其实有个简单的办法：假设自己拥有指数的相关公司，20年不许卖，你马上就能感觉到是不是贵了。（2015-04-15）",[904,3019,3020],{},"网友：美国股指已经达到17个月高点了，这个时候你的策略是什么？加仓减仓？",[904,3022,3023,3025],{},[910,3024,912],{}," 我买卖股票不是基于大盘的，所以和他是否高点无关。",[904,3027,3028],{},"如果我投资指数的话，我肯定不会加仓，因为便宜的时候肯定早就进去了。当然，如果有新的钱出来的话，还是要考虑一下是否加仓的问题。我发现我回答不了是否要因为大盘而加仓的问题，没什么概念。（2010-03-18）",[904,3030,3031],{},"网友：就我的理解来讲，给指数估值不是采用类似分析公司的估值方法，而是采用最直接简单的方法：在大多数人恐慌的时候买进，在大多数人贪婪的时候卖出。",[904,3033,3034,3036],{},[910,3035,1035],{}," ：我也是这么理解的。我理解的巴菲特讲的买美国其实就是买指数。（2010-04-13）",[904,3038,3039],{},"网友：刚看了林园的博客。典型熊市第三期——",[904,3041,3042],{},"目前股市据我们的观察和研究，就是典型的熊市第三期，它具备熊市第三期的所有要素。6月27号我在广州同广州证券和谢百三教授以及炒股的十几人吃晚饭，大约吃了接近两小时，大家谈股市的话题却占了不到整个话题的百分之十，业内人士都不谈论股市，说的都是和股市不相干的事。",[904,3044,3045],{},"第二个现象就是管理层不断的出利好措施或者不断的喊话提振股市信心，但市场却一跌再跌，毫无反应，继续下跌，这就正好印证了熊市三期对任何利好都不会有反应。第三，目前，绝大部分投资者都是严重套牢，几乎没人愿意炒股，市场极度恐慌，一买就套。",[904,3047,3048],{},"第四，从财务指标看，很多股票已跌破净资产，现在买银行股就等于开银行（包括一些垄断的行业），这就相当于，我们现在买这些股票就相当于自己在开这些公司。第五点，还有一个现象就是，一些公司的可转债都在面值以下。第六点，普通投资者和舆论都在给投资者算账，说投资中国股市十年都不盈利的言论。第七点，近期又有很多股票加速下跌，杀伤力很大。以上现象都具备熊市第三期的所有要素。",[904,3050,3051],{},"第八点，人们都在骂股市和基金。",[904,3053,3054],{},"我对熊市第三期的看法，最终的结果是管理层对股市的利好最终都要体现，几年后，人们发现今天不炒股不买基金，会自己打自己的耳光，同时还要说“笨”，很多人又对我说“你都是那时候买的便宜，今天都高了”我的股票又都成了高在天上的欣赏品。十年不赚钱这个结论是熊市第三期得出来的结论，是不准确的。",[904,3056,3057,3058,3061],{},"我们对个股或者股指的看法应该是在一个长时间的平均值，而不是取某一个点来说这个问题，我们对个股或者资产的价格应该取这么多年的平均值，这样才合理。熊市第三期买股要赚钱是小概率事件，亏钱是大概率事件，从这点来看投资者亏钱也是很正常的事情，我们要有",[1027,3059,12],{"href":3060},"\u002Fpingchangxin","。我的方法是熊市第三期满仓持有，牛市第三期资产上大台阶。",[904,3063,3064],{},[910,3065,3066],{},"段永平：牛市熊市的说法是眼睛看着别人（或叫市场）的表现。用这种办法投资有时候会对，因为“熊市”时往往股价都便宜，买到便宜股票的概率高。",[904,3068,3069],{},[910,3070,3071],{},"在自己了解并喜欢的公司便宜的时候满仓往往都是对的，和熊市牛市无关，虽然看起来好像有点相关度。",[904,3073,3074,3077],{},[910,3075,3076],{},"right business、right people、right price和牛市熊市没有必然关系，但“熊市”时right price出现的概率确实会比“牛市”高很多，但当right price出现时买的人并不需要知道现在是“牛”还是“熊”。"," （2012-07-08）",[904,3079,3080,3081,3083,3084,3087,3088,3090],{},"网友：为什么",[910,3082,937],{},"最近连接大幅减持股票，持有巨量现金？是觉得未来1-2内，美国会爆发债务危机吗？ 最新财报显示，",[910,3085,3086],{},"伯克希尔","·哈撒韦的美股持仓规模降至2575亿美元，创三年新低，而现金储备高达3441亿美元（约人民币2.48万亿）。更令人惊讶的是，",[910,3089,937],{},"已连续11个季度净卖出股票，仅今年二季度就减持30亿美元。",[904,3092,3093,3095],{},[910,3094,912],{}," 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