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平理解好生意和护城河的重要指标。它不是随意卖高价的能力，而是因为产品差异化、用户信任和长期价值，让企业在合理范围内拥有不被价格战牵着走的能力。",22.5,{"title":150,"slug":151,"description":152,"category":132,"order":153,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"用户体验","yonghutiyan","段永平对用户体验的关注可以追溯到他做小霸王和步步高时期，那时他用\"消费者导向\"来表达类似的理念。2003年北大演讲中他说：\"对于企业来说，最重要的是产品，而产品又必须以消费者为导向，所以最终你要找准消...",23,{"title":155,"slug":156,"description":157,"category":132,"order":158,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"渠道","qudao","段永平对渠道的理解来源于他在步步高建立全国销售网络的实战经验。1999年在人民大学问答中，被问及步步高在管理上有什么特点时，他提到了\"地区唯一代理制\"的渠道管理模式。这是他最早公开谈论渠道策略的记录。",24,{"title":160,"slug":161,"description":162,"category":132,"order":163,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"平台","pingtai","段永平使用\"平台\"概念主要集中在分析苹果公司的商业模式时。最早出现在2011年他写的\"买入苹果思考\"中：",25,{"title":165,"slug":166,"description":167,"category":132,"order":168,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"生态系统","shengtaixitong","段永平使用\"生态系统\"这一概念主要是在分析苹果公司时。最早出现在2012年前后的投资问答中。当一位网友详细描述了苹果设备之间的联动体验（iPhone、iPad、Mac的无缝协作、App 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CEO、理解乔布斯追求、苹果文化与用户体验。",5230,{"title":848,"slug":849,"description":850,"category":753,"order":851,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","整理段永平对马云的评价：理想主义、现实主义、企业文化、勇气、阿里巴巴与保留。",5240,{"title":853,"slug":854,"description":855,"category":753,"order":856,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","整理段永平对丁磊的评价：很有悟性、网易、不卖公司、不会干傻事、单纯与现金克制。",5250,{"title":858,"slug":859,"description":860,"category":753,"order":861,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","整理段永平对马化腾的评价：人不错、年轻、微信、微信支付、腾讯商业模式与长期影响。",5260,{"title":863,"slug":864,"description":865,"category":753,"order":866,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","整理段永平对俞敏洪的评价：新东方、面对问题、韧性、好生意人、条汉子与能力边界。",5270,{"title":868,"slug":869,"description":870,"category":753,"order":871,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","整理段永平对季克良的评价：茅台质量文化、造钟人、长期工艺、质量坚持与企业传承。",5280,{"title":873,"slug":874,"description":875,"category":753,"order":876,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","整理段永平对黄仁勋的评价：真诚、有能量、长期方向一致、英伟达、AI 与能力圈边界。",5290,{"title":878,"slug":879,"description":880,"category":753,"order":881,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的公司，并区分高度评价、正面关注、曾评价后修正和仍需观察。",5300,"topic",{"title":884,"slug":885,"description":886,"category":753,"order":887,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的人：投资大师、企业家、创始人和关键经营者。",5310,{"title":889,"slug":890,"description":891,"category":753,"order":892,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","整理段永平从看不懂、保留或低估，逐步重新评估的公司案例：泡泡玛特、英伟达、阿里、新东方等。",5320,{"id":894,"title":450,"body":895,"category":416,"chapterOrder":25,"date":10,"description":452,"extension":2709,"meta":2710,"navigation":2711,"order":453,"path":2712,"seo":2713,"seoDescription":452,"seoTitle":2714,"slug":451,"source":10,"sourceDate":10,"sourceUrl":10,"stem":2715,"tags":2716,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"__hash__":2721,"_collection":2722},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fwenda-invest-04.md",{"type":896,"value":897,"toc":2701},"minimark",[898,903,907,910,917,920,923,926,929,932,935,938,943,946,954,957,960,963,966,969,972,977,987,996,1002,1004,1014,1017,1020,1023,1028,1031,1034,1037,1040,1043,1046,1049,1054,1057,1062,1065,1071,1074,1076,1081,1084,1088,1093,1096,1103,1106,1109,1112,1121,1124,1127,1135,1146,1151,1154,1159,1162,1167,1178,1183,1190,1195,1198,1203,1209,1221,1224,1229,1232,1235,1238,1244,1251,1257,1260,1263,1273,1279,1282,1285,1288,1291,1294,1299,1309,1314,1320,1323,1326,1329,1334,1340,1344,1353,1358,1363,1370,1375,1380,1387,1393,1400,1403,1406,1409,1418,1421,1427,1440,1443,1448,1454,1465,1471,1474,1486,1489,1492,1497,1500,1503,1506,1509,1512,1515,1518,1521,1526,1529,1543,1546,1549,1552,1565,1574,1581,1598,1604,1610,1613,1618,1621,1626,1629,1632,1635,1640,1643,1646,1649,1652,1659,1662,1667,1670,1675,1678,1687,1690,1695,1702,1705,1713,1722,1725,1728,1731,1737,1742,1748,1751,1754,1757,1762,1768,1773,1776,1779,1784,1787,1792,1795,1801,1804,1821,1824,1833,1836,1842,1847,1858,1868,1873,1876,1879,1882,1885,1890,1896,1904,1909,1912,1915,1928,1938,1944,1947,1952,1965,1977,1986,1989,1993,2000,2005,2011,2020,2029,2038,2044,2050,2055,2060,2063,2066,2071,2074,2098,2104,2118,2121,2126,2129,2136,2139,2144,2147,2155,2161,2165,2181,2184,2187,2193,2198,2209,2212,2220,2226,2229,2234,2237,2248,2257,2260,2268,2271,2279,2285,2296,2302,2305,2308,2314,2317,2320,2323,2326,2329,2332,2335,2340,2343,2359,2364,2373,2384,2387,2396,2399,2402,2411,2420,2429,2434,2446,2451,2470,2473,2482,2493,2498,2501,2504,2507,2513,2519,2525,2528,2533,2536,2539,2547,2550,2556,2566,2569,2577,2580,2582,2586,2591,2596,2601,2610,2613,2616,2619,2622,2627,2637,2645,2650,2653,2661,2665,2668,2674,2677,2680,2686,2689,2692,2695,2698],[899,900,902],"h2",{"id":901},"第一节-风险考量与纪律","第一节 风险考量与纪律",[904,905,906],"p",{},"网友：段学长好！我是浙大电机系毕业的，现在在读工程科的PhD。课余我看了一些价值投资方面的书，Graham的《The Intelligent Investor》和《Security Analysis》之类的，也看了巴菲特的传记《Snow Ball》，对价值投资的兴趣越来越浓，很想以此为终身事业，您觉得直接投身到投资领域好吗？",[904,908,909],{},"还是应该先有自己经营企业的经验才能真正理解企业？",[904,911,912,916],{},[913,914,915],"strong",{},"段永平："," 老实讲，我不知道什么人适合做投资。但我知道统计上大概80-90%进入股市的人都是赔钱的。如果算上利息的话，赔钱的比例还要高些。许多人很想做投资的原因可能是认为投资的钱比较好赚，或来的比较快。作为既有经营企业又有投资经验的人来讲，我个人认为经营企业还是要比投资容易些。",[904,918,919],{},"虽然这两者其实没有什么本质差别，但经营企业总是会在自己熟悉的领域，犯错的机会小，而投资却总是需要面临很多新的东西和不确定性，而且投资人会非常容易变成投机者，从而去冒不该冒的风险，而投机者要转化为真正的投资者则可能要长得多的时间。",[904,921,922],{},"投资和投机其实是很不同的游戏，但看起来又非常像。就像在澳门，开赌场的就是投资者，而赌客就是投机者一样。赌场之所以总有源源不断的客源的原因，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赢钱的总是比较大声些。作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人啊。",[904,924,925],{},"以我个人的观点，其实什么人都可以做投资，只要你明白自己买的是什么，价值在哪里。投机需要的技巧可能要高很多，这是我不太懂的领域，也不打算学了，有空还是多陪陪家人或打几场高尔夫吧。",[904,927,928],{},"作为刚毕业的学生，马上投入投资领域也没啥不可，但对企业的理解自然会弱些。但只要你热爱你干的事情，又知道自己的弱点，慢慢学习总是会明白的。",[904,930,931],{},"即使是号称很有企业经验的本人也是在经受很多挫折之后才觉得自己对投资的理解比较好了。我问过巴菲特在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。这些年，我在投资里亏掉的美金数以亿计，每一笔都是违背老巴教导的情况下亏的，而赚到的大钱也都是在自己真正懂的地方赚的。",[904,933,934],{},"作为刚出道的学生，书上的东西可能知道的很多，但融到骨子里还需要吃很多亏后才行。所以，如果你马上投入投资行业，最重要的是要保守啊，别因为一个错误就再也爬不起来了。这里唯一我可以保证的是，你肯定会犯错误的。",[904,936,937],{},"无论如何，投资是个非常有趣的工作，如果你真准备好了，那就来吧。你真的准备好了吗？（2010-02-04）",[904,939,940,942],{},[913,941,915],{}," option是双面刃，既可以是投资的辅助工具，也可以是投机工具。",[904,944,945],{},"我见过不少号称有“照”的人，实际上并不真明白option的所以然。",[904,947,948,949,953],{},"10年前一个香港的朋友告诉我有put这个东西，从那时开始做投资到今天，没看过任何option的书，也没听说过你说的这个人。我认为其实option是个很好的工具，因为这个市场上有太多的源源不断的投机的钱，卖option大概可以算最好的赚投机或对冲的钱的好办法。我自己从来就没有一个所谓的option策略，都是跟着",[950,951,104],"a",{"href":952},"\u002Fjibenmian","走的。",[904,955,956],{},"不过，作为辅助工具，卖option用好了还是蛮有效地，我管的钱在利用option上产生的利润好像可以赶上很多赚钱的上市公司了。",[904,958,959],{},"我见过的大多数人其实都把option复杂化了，其实option和价值投资的概念一样，不了解的公司的option是绝对不应该碰的。",[904,961,962],{},"只要有想用option赚快钱的想法，最后的结果一般都会很糟。",[904,964,965],{},"顺便说下，理解不了价值投资的人更难理解option，做option的技巧越高，最后吃的亏会越大。（2011-12-18）",[904,967,968],{},"我做股票的第一个交易就是卖put。一直不是很不明白为什么大多数人搞不懂卖put和卖covered call的道理。照说如果明白买股票就是买公司的道理后，应该很容易明白卖put无非就是让你更便宜买你原来想买的股票的办法而已。（只要用到杠杆就改变了游戏的性质。）",[904,970,971],{},"网友：您觉得一毕业就直接投身到投资领域好吗？还是应该先有自己经营企业的经验才能真正理解企业？",[904,973,974,976],{},[913,975,915],{}," 老实讲，我不知道什么人适合做投资。但我知道统计上大概80%-90%进入股市的人都是赔钱的。如果算上利息的话，赔钱的比例还要高些。许多人很想做投资的原因可能是认为投资的钱比较好赚，或来得比较快。作为既经营过企业又有投资经验的人来讲，我个人认为经营企业还是要比投资容易些。",[904,978,979,980,983,984,986],{},"虽然这两者其实没有什么本质差别，但经营企业总是会在自己熟悉的领域，犯错的机会小，而投资却总是需要面临很多新的东西和不确定性，而且投资人会非常容易变成",[950,981,119],{"href":982},"\u002Ftouji","者，从而去冒不该冒的风险，而",[950,985,119],{"href":982},"者要转化为真正的投资者则可能要长得多的时间。",[904,988,989,990,992,993,995],{},"投资和",[950,991,119],{"href":982},"其实是很不同的游戏，但看起来又非常像。就像在澳门，开赌场的就是投资者，而赌客就是",[950,994,119],{"href":982},"者一样。赌场之所以总有源源不断的客源，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赢钱的总是比较大声些。作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人啊。",[904,997,998,999,1001],{},"以我个人的观点，其实什么人都可以做投资，只要你明白自己买的是什么，价值在哪里。",[950,1000,119],{"href":982},"需要的技巧可能要高很多，这是我不太懂的领域，也不打算学了，有空还是多陪陪家人或打几场高尔夫吧。",[904,1003,928],{},[904,1005,1006,1007,1010,1011,1013],{},"即使是号称很有企业经验的本人也是在经受很多挫折之后才觉得自己对投资的理解比较好了。我问过",[913,1008,1009],{},"巴菲特","在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。这些年，我在投资里亏掉的美金数以亿计，每一笔都是在违背",[913,1012,1009],{},"教导的情况下亏的，而赚到的大钱也都是在自己真正懂的地方赚的。",[904,1015,1016],{},"作为刚出道的学生，书上的东西可能知道得很多，但融到骨子里还需要吃很多亏后才行。所以，如果你马上投入投资行业，最重要的是要保守啊，别因为一个错误就再也爬不起来了。这里唯一我可以保证的是，你肯定会犯错误的。",[904,1018,1019],{},"无论如何，投资是个非常有趣的工作，如果你真准备好了，那就来吧。你真的准备好了吗？",[904,1021,1022],{},"网友：请问普通人是不是不适合做可以空可以涨的股指期货这类品种？我总是小赚大亏，最后亏损本金。",[904,1024,1025,1027],{},[913,1026,915],{}," 任何人都最好别做空。（2025-10-19）",[904,1029,1030],{},"网友：阿段，我过去两年看了你几乎所有写的东西，从今年3月份开始实操，取得了不错的收益，到现在40%左右。特别是4月大幅下跌的时候，您直接晒操作，更加坚定了我的投资信心。我现在有个实操的问题：因为投资准则就是不做空，不加杠杆，不做不懂的东西。我也没有加杠杆，按照我的总资产来卖的put。现在很多股票大幅上涨，期权也几乎跌到了没有价值。",[904,1032,1033],{},"我现在想再卖一些put，是否要先把这些期权平仓呢？虽然被行权的几率不高，但是万一遇到市场大幅下跌就风险比较大，不想要富两次。如果平仓又感觉不划算，就几毛钱的价格，还要交手续费。您的操作应该是不会平仓，等到到期。我是否可以做一些变通？",[904,1035,1036],{},"大道：你的钱你想做啥都是可以的。（2025-10-28）",[904,1038,1039],{},"大道：你不过跟大多数散户一样亏钱了而已。老巴说过，如果你在坑里的话，至少不要继续往下挖了？（2026-08-08）",[904,1041,1042],{},"网友：段总您好，我是一个刚上两年班的普通银行职工，现在在坚持定投纳斯达克100。如果我定投到要退休的年纪来一波50%甚至更大的回撤怎么办呢，我应该怎么避免？",[904,1044,1045],{},"大道：这个是有可能发生的，避免的办法很简单，就是买国债呗。（2026-08-06）",[904,1047,1048],{},"网友：身为价值投资的一只菜鸟，最近我在学习价值投资时有这么一个想法：一般来说，投资盈亏具有不确定性（在盈亏方面），也就是所谓的投资风险，很多人强调这点，而对于价值投资来说，价值投资者在其买入和持有某公司股票的时候，其心中主要是对其价值判断的确定性，他主观上是很确认其价值的，非常确认其价值是远远低估的。您觉得我这么想对吗？",[904,1050,1051],{},[913,1052,1053],{},"段永平：价值投资的风险不该比开车出门大，投机的风险不会比去赌场小。最危险的可能是一知半解的那种：比如号称自己是价值投资者，也知道价值投资要拿长线的道理（知其然不知其所以然），结果买错股票又坚持长线持有的那种。（2011-03-01）",[904,1055,1056],{},"网友：如何避免投资碰到黑天鹅事件？",[904,1058,1059,1061],{},[913,1060,915],{}," 黑天鹅事件在买的时候就应该避开了，不然你就不应该投资。价值投资者其实最喜欢看到黑天鹅事件的发生，这种时候往往会有机会。上一次金融危机无数人中招，但巴菲特那么大盘子，那些一掉到底不复回的股票他一个都没有就是一个例子，这可绝对不是运气哈。顺便说一句，那些股票我也一个都没有。",[904,1063,1064],{},"要是你的“估值”会和公司的每一个产品的推出和定价联系在一起，你早晚会在不赚钱的前提下累趴下的。",[904,1066,1067,1068],{},"补充一点：",[913,1069,1070],{},"买的时候避开的意思就是不懂不做，事前想清楚。",[904,1072,1073],{},"去年有个朋友想投双汇，问我的看法。我说我不懂，你好像也不比我懂，但我觉得中国食品行业风险大，不知道啥时候就会出点啥问题，结果不幸而言中了。（2011-03-30）",[904,1075,1056],{},[904,1077,1078,1080],{},[913,1079,915],{}," 黑天鹅事件在买的时候就应该避开了，不然你就不应该投资。",[904,1082,1083],{},"价值投资者其实最喜欢看到黑天鹅事件的发生，这种时候往往会有机会。上一次金融危机无数人中招，但巴菲特那么大盘子，那些一掉到底不复回的股票他一个都没有就是一个例子，这可绝对不是运气哈。顺便说一句，那些股票我也一个都没有。",[899,1085,1087],{"id":1086},"第二节-不做空","第二节 不做空",[904,1089,1090,1092],{},[913,1091,915],{}," 我问巴菲特一些其他问题时，他间接回答了这个问题。",[904,1094,1095],{},"我问巴菲特，在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。",[904,1097,1098,1099,1102],{},"他说，",[913,1100,1101],{},"他只希望富一次，"," 如果借钱，可能会变成两次、三次富有了，然后又穷回去了。他这话的意思是要少犯错。",[904,1104,1105],{},"网友：最近正在向您的投资三原则靠拢。不借钱，不做空，不做不懂的东西。前两条已经做到了。在执行第三条时，发现自己之前投资的好多公司自己还没完全搞懂。真正最了解的就身边的格力与苏宁了。我卖了三年前买的中国平安（因为现在发现对它好多东西都不懂）加上自己省下的一些闲钱，放在银行有点难受。我打算跟您买点华侨城，再跟老巴买点比亚迪。",[904,1107,1108],{},"我想了很久，觉得这也符合您“不懂不做”的投资原则。因为我对您和巴菲特的投资方法很懂。这样比较容易让自己坚信。",[904,1110,1111],{},"请问段总我的想法对吗？还有想问您，您在09年为什么跟老巴买富国银行（你说过不懂银行的）而不是容易了解的强生，宝洁，沃尔玛啊？",[904,1113,1114,1117,1118],{},[913,1115,1116],{},"段永平"," ：首先你一定要明白一个基本的逻辑关系，",[913,1119,1120],{},"那就是投资一定要投自己了解或明白的公司，但不是说自己了解或明白的公司就一定要投。你要连这个逻辑都搞不清楚，“投资”会让你吃大苦头的。",[904,1122,1123],{},"老巴很懂银行，而且是WFC的董事，他说很便宜的时候那就是很便宜了。另外，我虽然不如老巴懂银行，但也不是一点也不懂，我看过他说的道理，非常认同。他们有的有些公司我就不太认同，所以不会跟。（2011-05-29）",[904,1125,1126],{},"网友：在10年投资中您都犯过哪些错误？补了哪些弱项？感到最难的是什么？",[904,1128,1129,1131,1132,1134],{},[913,1130,915],{}," 这些年犯的错误就那几个：做了自己其实不懂的东西，借过钱，做过空。所有的错误都和这些有关。以后不会再做空和借钱，但可能还会有机会做以为自己懂了其实还是没搞懂的东西。所以犯错率大幅度下降了。最难的就是什么都不做。当手里有很多现金的时候就很容易理解为什么这么说。",[913,1133,1009],{},"说他最容易犯错的时候就是手里有很多现金的时候，我也是。",[904,1136,1137,1138,1141,1142,1145],{},"网友：我目前在等",[913,1139,1140],{},"茅台","再便宜一点点，我很明白跟",[950,1143,64],{"href":1144},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","好的公司一直站在一起的感觉。",[904,1147,1148,1150],{},[913,1149,915],{}," 如果你知道你在等什么，那当然要等！如果你不知道在等什么，那你等什么？（2025-06-08）",[904,1152,1153],{},"网友：大道对携程看走眼了呀！携程现在蛮优秀的。",[904,1155,1156,1158],{},[913,1157,915],{}," 他看走眼的公司多了去了，你感觉是不是好了很多？！但投资不是关于你是不是看走眼了，而是你是不是有看懂的好公司下了重注。他要一直没有看走眼过，他早就是世界首富的好多倍了。（2025-07-27）",[904,1160,1161],{},"网友：作为一个新入门投资者，如果从现在2025年9月开始做10年期以上投资，请问什么方向或者公司，能做到年化10%以上的收益呢？",[904,1163,1164,1166],{},[913,1165,915],{}," 这和开口要钱没啥区别哈，自己搞不懂的投资是很难赚到钱的。（2025-09-09）",[904,1168,1169,1170,1173,1174,1177],{},"网友：深刻认同大道的总结，作为一个投资者，必须具备的一个特质是乐观：世界会变得越来越好，人们对优质产品和服务的追求是无止境的，以合适价格投资这些有好的",[913,1171,1172],{},"生意模式","+好的",[950,1175,129],{"href":1176},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","的公司，拉长时间看一定会取得相对不错的回报。",[904,1179,1180,1182],{},[913,1181,915],{}," 投资者需要“客观”，“乐观”是有可能害死人的哈。(2025-09-26)",[904,1184,1185,1186,1189],{},"网友：",[913,1187,1188],{},"腾讯","未来 5 年内会超过十万亿市值吗？",[904,1191,1192,1194],{},[913,1193,915],{}," 最好不要想市值，集中精力看生意！（2025-10-04）",[904,1196,1197],{},"网友：段总，看生意的话不是应该预估一下大概值多少钱吗？低估就买，高估就不买，为什么不要想市值呢？可以指点一下吗？谢谢您。",[904,1199,1200,1202],{},[913,1201,915],{}," 如果你会的话！猜别人肯出多少钱买你的生意是件很难的事情。（2025-10-05）",[904,1204,1205,1206,1208],{},"网友：看了你的投资语录，里面有句话：",[913,1207,1009],{},"说能看懂变化的人会赚大钱。这个变化是什么，或者怎么理解这句话？我的理解是看得懂这个公司未来可能比预计的赚更多的钱，但还是感觉理解上没抓住精髓。",[904,1210,1211,1213,1214,1217,1218,1220],{},[913,1212,915],{}," 举个例子你就明白了：10年前我没看懂nvda，你要看懂了你就能赚大钱。同理，十多年前我看懂了",[913,1215,1216],{},"苹果","，二十多年前我看懂了",[913,1219,599],{},"，你也没能赚到大钱。（2025-10-13）",[904,1222,1223],{},"网友：段总，对投资而言，是努力钻研发现不同公司的机会重要，还是坚守着一只好股不管波动重要？",[904,1225,1226,1228],{},[913,1227,915],{}," 看上去两者你都不会啊。（2025-10-18）",[904,1230,1231],{},"网友：请教大道，投资初期，“主意多于钱”的阶段您有遇到过吗？请问怎么克服或调整？",[904,1233,1234],{},"大道：很多馊主意是导致你没钱的原因哈。问题是你想克服吗？（2025-11-01）",[904,1236,1237],{},"网友：大道，我是小散户一名，大概一年前关注到你。然后发现你提到那些标，就里面的MRNA便宜，买得起。又发现期权费挺高的，目前手握600股成本29.5，同时双向卖一个月的30call和23put，现有备用资金大概还能接1000股。如果MRNA股价稳定在23-29区间，年化率会达到40%以上，不知我这样操作会不会太冒险？",[904,1239,1240,1241,1243],{},"大道：既然是",[950,1242,119],{"href":982},"哪有太冒险这个说法？（2025-11-05）",[904,1245,1246,1247,1250],{},"网友：大道，请教一下，您认为投资金额占个人资产多少百分比，才能比较",[950,1248,216],{"href":1249},"\u002Flixing","地去看待投资？",[904,1252,1253,1254,1256],{},"大道：你要是没明白这个问题，就说明你还很不",[950,1255,216],{"href":1249},"。（2025-11-13）",[904,1258,1259],{},"网友：大道，本人愚笨，目前的投资策略是拒绝碰个股，把所有年终奖all in 字节期权（买股票就是买公司，我相信他是优质的公司），其他的除留下日常花销以外，定投标普500&买点黄金，我这算是懂了吗？",[904,1261,1262],{},"大道：买期权？你会懂的！（2025-11-17）",[904,1264,1185,1265,1268,1269,1272],{},[950,1266,52],{"href":1267},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者的投资体系中有",[950,1270,124],{"href":1271},"\u002Fzhisun","或者动态止盈的概念吗？",[904,1274,1275,1276,1278],{},"大道：",[950,1277,52],{"href":1267},"的定义是什么？需要先搞清楚定义哈。（2025-12-01）",[904,1280,1281],{},"网友：个人愚见，我觉得您卖covered call本质上也是一种止盈手段。",[904,1283,1284],{},"大道：哈，确实是愚见。（2025-12-04）",[904,1286,1287],{},"网友：大道您好！“不做空，不借钱，不懂不做”，为什么学习的时候觉得很懂了但我到实践中都是要交了学费才能真正懂呀。",[904,1289,1290],{},"大道：所以你肯定交了学费了，但是不是懂了则很难说哈。（2026-02-01）",[904,1292,1293],{},"网友：能否分享一下自己认为的最差的一次投资？",[904,1295,1296,1298],{},[913,1297,915],{}," 不做空、不借钱、不懂不碰 63呵呵，亏钱的投资有好几次了，多数都可以原谅，但有一次属于极度愚蠢，就是跑去做空百度。之前投资表现非常好，有点飘飘然，真以为自己很厉害。开始还是想小玩玩，后来又不服输，最后被夹空而投降，所有账号加起来亏了很多钱，大概有1.5-2亿美元，其中有个账号到现在都翻不了身。",[904,1300,1301,1302,1305,1306,1308],{},"最可惜的是，这次错误把我们的现金储备全部消耗掉了，",[950,1303,109],{"href":1304},"\u002Fjihuichengben","巨大，不然这次金融危机我就可以帮大家赚更多钱了。而且最遗憾的是，这个错误是发生在",[913,1307,1009],{},"叫我不要做空之后。现在知道什么叫不听老人言的后果了吧？值得欣慰的是，这三年总的表现还不错。真有点感谢金融危机给了我逆转的机会。",[904,1310,1311,1313],{},[913,1312,1009],{},"的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！",[904,1315,1316,1317,1319],{},"不过，这其实不算我最差的投资，因为这根本就是彻头彻尾的",[950,1318,119],{"href":982},"。以后不会再有这种例子了。(2010-03-07)",[904,1321,1322],{},"引用：《对冲基金巨头：做空特斯拉是职业生涯最大失误之一》2014年06月12日",[904,1324,1325],{},"特斯拉堪称美股中最受争议的牛股之一，让无数投资者又爱又恨，对冲基金Kase Capital的创始人Whitney Tilson近日就表示，做空特斯拉是他整个职业生涯中最大的败笔……，Tilson还表示，他目前的投资组合中多空比是2：1，不过最近他更偏向空一些。他称“我并不是看空，我是谨慎。”",[904,1327,1328],{},"Tilson是Kase Capital的掌门人，是格雷厄姆与巴菲特倡导的价值投资的忠实信徒。",[904,1330,1331],{},[913,1332,1333],{},"段永平：总的来讲，苍蝇不叮无缝的蛋，虽然也有误伤的时候。不是很明白被唱空的公司为什么都那么火急火燎地马上反击。也有人做空老巴的BRK，老巴的反应很简单：空头根本改变不了一家公司的价值，只有某种情况下会有例外，比如公司的融资和股价有关时，股价大掉会有危险。但是，这种危险实际上也是由融资来的，和空头其实无关。",[904,1335,1336,1339],{},[913,1337,1338],{},"比如，在金融危机的大环境下，某些不够健康的银行就有可能会成为空头袭击的牺牲品。自从取消mark to the market，连这种情况都不太会见到了。好公司根本就不怕人做空！"," （2011-11-23）",[899,1341,1343],{"id":1342},"第三节-不借钱不加杠杆","第三节 不借钱、不加杠杆",[904,1345,1346,1348,1349,1352],{},[913,1347,915],{}," 你要没有现金在就等于在用margin，等于用你的港股在抵押。不是很推荐你卖puts。我卖puts（有时也卖些covered calls）的原因主要是资金量有点大，我把这个当套利。由于我能评估自己的风险，也很清楚自己在干什么，一年10-15%的回报还是可以接受的，",[913,1350,1351],{},"尤其是没有发现非常理想的目标时"," 。（2010-05-16）",[904,1354,1355,1357],{},[913,1356,915],{}," 不明白最好就别碰option。使用option时最重要的就是不要为option而option，只有对基本面非常明白时才有可能有时用一下。还有就是不要用margin做option。（2011-10-04）",[904,1359,1360,1362],{},[913,1361,915],{}," 40年复利15%=268倍，就已经很了不起了。40年20%=1469倍。有些对冲基金有些年头回报好的原因往往和他们用margin有关，所以不能单纯比业绩的。当然连着比40年自然合理。不过，我是业余投资者，没那么多时间去看企业，所以不参加任何比赛哈，just for fun.（2012-06-24）",[904,1364,1365,1366,1369],{},"网友L：段大哥，是不是也可以这样理解：在没有平常心的地方是找不到平常心的。我亲身经历平常心不是求来的，而是“做对的事，",[950,1367,22],{"href":1368},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","”后自然而然就有的一种心态。以前曾经有过的急躁其实也是在没弄懂或者没计划然后把事情搞砸后的一种自然反应。",[904,1371,1372,1374],{},[913,1373,915],{}," 在错的道路上是没办法有平常心的，比如用着margin的人们，昨天那种情况下，你懂的。（2015-05-29）",[904,1376,1377,1379],{},[913,1378,915],{}," 卖put的前提是你总是要准备好现金在那儿，不然就等于在用margin。",[904,1381,1382,1383,1386],{},"我认为“懂”不是个绝对的概念，大概就是“毛估估懂”的意思。懂不懂只有自己才知道，任何别人都很难评价。比如说我觉得我懂通用电气(",[913,1384,1385],{},"GE",")的文化的价值，但不懂的人就会在其很便宜的时候把股票卖给我。",[904,1388,1389,1390,1392],{},"从投资的角度而言，当你觉得你买的股票掉而你真的不受影响的时候，你大概就是懂了(不是心理因素)，不然就有可能是在",[950,1391,119],{"href":982},"(尤其是当你觉得害怕的时候)。",[904,1394,1395,1396,1399],{},"比如，雅虎(",[913,1397,1398],{},"Yahoo",")最近从今年的高点掉下来不少，我也重新审视过我投雅虎的理由，发现好的理由并没有任何减少，负面的东西也没有任何增加，我也就没有任何事情需要担心的了。(2010-05-20)",[904,1401,1402],{},"“懂”的定义不要太理想化。“懂”并不是能看到未来一切的“水晶球”，能看到一些重要的东西就很不错了。长远而言，我觉得投资实际上是个概率事件，真正“懂”的人犯错误的概率低，最后的回报高。很多时候不能简单地用某人对某只股票的行为来判断他对投资的理解。(2010-08-30)",[904,1404,1405],{},"所谓投资厉害不厉害实际上是很难定义的，这又不是比赛。",[904,1407,1408],{},"人们对投资“厉害”与否往往喜欢用某段时间的回报的比例来衡量，但这种衡量往往是不科学的，因为有很多因素会影响到短期的回报。下面举几个可能影响短期投资回报的例子。",[904,1410,1411,1414,1415,1417],{},[950,1412,27],{"href":1413},"\u002Fnengliquan",":懂投资的人的回报未必能一直比市场好，尤其是有时候",[950,1416,27],{"href":1413},"内没得可投时。",[904,1419,1420],{},"margin :有些用margin甚至是用很多margin的人是有可能在赌对的情况下在某个时段表现很好的一一但出来混是一定会还的。",[904,1422,1423,1424,1426],{},"把握性：",[913,1425,1009],{},"说，他的投资一般是在他认为有95%的把握时才出手(我觉得也许没那么高)，但很多人实际上在有60%的把握时就出手不做空、不借钱、不懂不碰 51了(或许更低，所以会看到他们深一脚浅一脚的)，可是10000个60%出手的人里面，总能在某个时段找到运气好而回报特别好的，但未必就是因为这些人厉害。",[904,1428,1429,1430,1433,1434,1436,1437,1439],{},"用功程度：",[913,1431,1432],{},"所谓懂投资的真正含义，我个人的理解是懂得不投不懂","。但投资回报的好坏其实是取决于投资人能找到自己懂的、好的投资标的，这就需要很用功才能经常找到好的目标(",[913,1435,1009],{},"的标准是一年一个)。像我这种等待",[913,1438,1216],{},"掉头上型的用功程度，四年能找到一个就很不错了。",[904,1441,1442],{},"网友T：公司上不上市本质上有区别吗？倒是不上市很难买到他的股份。",[904,1444,1445,1447],{},[913,1446,915],{}," 就是因为本没有区别，哪来的市场恐惧呢？比如欧洲金融危机和我住的房子是没关系的，当然如果你是借钱买的可能就有关系了。（2011-10-25）",[904,1449,1450,1451,1453],{},"网友：option(期权)可以作为",[950,1452,52],{"href":1267},"的辅助工具？",[904,1455,1456,1458,1459,1461,1462,1464],{},[913,1457,915],{}," 是啊，",[913,1460,1009],{},"也用啊。不过，",[913,1463,1009],{},"规模太大，只能卖点标普的put。我自己也觉得越来越难用了，规模大了以后市场没容量，卖不出好价钱就没意思了。(2011-12-18)",[904,1466,1467,1468,1470],{},"使用 option 时最重要的就是不要为option而option，只有对",[950,1469,104],{"href":952},"非常明白时才有可能有时用一下。还有就是不要用margin做option。(2011-10-04)",[904,1472,1473],{},"我说的卖call 一定指的是covered call，和市场无关但和了解有很大的关系，不了解的公司绝对不能碰任何option。卖put也不需要“大量”的资金，钱多多做些，没钱就不做，和别的一样。(2011-07-16)",[904,1475,1476,1477,1479,1480,1482,1483,1485],{},"从本质上来讲，卖option就是在赚",[950,1478,119],{"href":982},"者的钱，实际上是在和",[950,1481,119],{"href":982},"者对赌。",[950,1484,119],{"href":982},"者像来赌场的赌客，卖covered call和有些股票的put则有点像赌场。(2011-07-17)",[904,1487,1488],{},"你如果坚持用买call 的办法去买你想买的公司(其实你只是想赌个大涨而已)，最后的结果大概率是亏光光的。我自己是不买option 的，不管是 call 还是put。(2020-11-13)",[904,1490,1491],{},"网友：段大哥：昨天在香港问钟兆民，华人里投资最厉害的人是谁？他说是段永平。跟我的想法一样。",[904,1493,1494,1496],{},[913,1495,915],{}," 所谓投资厉害不厉害实际上是很难定义的，这又不是比赛。",[904,1498,1499],{},"人们对投资“厉害”与否往往喜欢用某段时间的回报的比例来衡量，但这种衡量往往是不科学的，因为有很多因素会影响到短期的回报。下面举几个可能影响短期投资回报的例子：",[904,1501,1502],{},"1．能力圈：懂投资的人的回报未必能一直比市场好，尤其是有时候能力圈内没得可投时；",[904,1504,1505],{},"2．margin：有些用margin甚至是用很多margin的人是有可能在赌对的情况下在某个时段表现很好的----但出来混是一定会还的；",[904,1507,1508],{},"3．把握性：巴菲特说，他的投资一般是在他认为有95%的把握时才出手（我觉得也许没那么高），但很多人实际上60%的把握就出手了（或许更低，所以会看到他们深一脚浅一脚的），可是10000个60%出手的人里面总能在某个时段找到运气好而回报特别好的，但未必就是因为这些人厉害。",[904,1510,1511],{},"4．用功程度：所谓懂投资的真正含义，我个人的理解其实是懂得不投不懂的东西。但投资回报的好坏其实是取决于投资人能找到自己懂的好的投资标的，这就需要很用功才能经常找到好的目标（巴菲特的标准是一年一个）。像我这种用等待苹果掉头上型的用功程度4年能找到一个就很不错的。",[904,1513,1514],{},"如果非要找个厉害的华人投资者，我个人觉得最厉害的是李嘉诚，不会有啥争议吧？（2012-08-27）",[904,1516,1517],{},"网友：多谢提醒！具有“天时地利人和”的条件，只是胜算的把握大些罢了。",[904,1519,1520],{},"我们要做赢的把握大的事情，但不是做百分之百可以赢的事情，世间没有百分之百可以赢的投资。人无完人嘛，公司也一样。估计理解这个道理的人，在今后的投资里就不会再有该不该借钱的疑问了。",[904,1522,1523,1525],{},[913,1524,915],{}," 是的，用margin是危险的，有机会富两次。（2013-03-29）",[904,1527,1528],{},"网友：A股大动荡，现在多庆幸自己没融资，压力小多了。真到了危机时刻，才会发现您说的原则是多么珍贵。",[904,1530,1531,1533,1534],{},[913,1532,915],{}," ",[913,1535,1536,1538,1539,1542],{},[950,1537,22],{"href":1368},"的能力只有在",[950,1540,17],{"href":1541},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","时才能让时间站在自己的一边，不然早晚会出事的。(2015-08-10)",[904,1544,1545],{},"反正你借不借钱一生当中都会失去无穷机会的，但借钱可能会让你再也没机会了。(2010-04-11)",[904,1547,1548],{},"用杠杆炒房和用margin没有本质差别，但问题来的时候要更惨，因为房子的流通性一定会差些。(2013-10-09)",[904,1550,1551],{},"网友：您说“这些年花在投资上的时间不多，但投资水平有很大长进”，具体是什么意思？",[904,1553,1554,1533,1556,1172,1559],{},[913,1555,915],{},[913,1557,1558],{},"就是不再受市场影响，更加坚信要买那些有好的",[913,1560,1561,1562,1564],{},"和好的",[950,1563,129],{"href":1176},"的好公司。(2019-07-28)",[904,1566,1567,1570,1571],{},[913,1568,1569],{},"比如","茅台，",[913,1572,1573],{},"过去30年里不管你在酒前酒后、左侧右侧买，10年后看都是好投资，但用margin买的还是有可能要裸奔的。所以，不懂不碰，不用margin就是不为清单。(2020-10-11)",[904,1575,1576,1577,1580],{},"网友：要做到",[950,1578,12],{"href":1579},"\u002Fpingchangxin","好难，是不是再怎么努力也无法完全做到？有什么方法吗？",[904,1582,1583,1585,1586,1588,1589,1591,1592,1594,1595,1597],{},[913,1584,915],{}," 股市掉这么点儿就这样了？平常人是很难有",[950,1587,12],{"href":1579},"的，所以",[950,1590,12],{"href":1579},"又叫不",[950,1593,12],{"href":1579},"。如果你关心的不是事物的本质，没有",[950,1596,12],{"href":1579},"是正常的。",[904,1599,1600,1601,1603],{},"倒过来也一样，如果你关注的只是事物的本质，",[950,1602,12],{"href":1579},"自然就在那里了。",[904,1605,1606,1607,1609],{},"在错的道路上是没办法有",[950,1608,12],{"href":1579},"的，比如用着margin(保证金)*的人们，昨天那种情况下，你懂的。",[904,1611,1612],{},"网友：我说的天气不好是泛指，也就是找不到可投资的标的时候，尤其是雨雪天，很多因素是我们无法控制也无从判断的，那时最好就停下来歇歇；回看2 008年，我觉得再来一遍，我也判断不出来次贷危机会有如此严重的后果，也判断不出政府的刺激政策有这么快速的反应，相对比较可行的是判断几家长期跟踪公司的股价是否在合理区间。",[904,1614,1615,1617],{},[913,1616,1116],{}," ：任何时候，你不懂的公司你都不应该买。所以你是对的！不过，我觉得你说的雨雪天好像还是和大市有关吧？危机大概5-8年来一次，希望下一次来的时候你记得来这里看一眼，然后擦擦冷汗，然后把能投进去的钱全投进去。千万别借钱哦，因为没人知道市场疯狂起来到底有多疯狂。（2010-03-05）",[904,1619,1620],{},"网友：给大家概括一下咱们自己的价值投资（组合）应该持循的“企业文化”要素好不？",[904,1622,1623,1625],{},[913,1624,915],{}," 不做空、不margin、不做不懂的东西。（2010-04-06）",[904,1627,1628],{},"网友：段兄，请教两个问题：",[904,1630,1631],{},"1、投资股票，你最热衷什么行业？巴老的意思应该是自己懂的行业，不懂不碰！我想问的是，什么行业确定性最大？",[904,1633,1634],{},"2、关于巴老提出的：最好的企业就是那些不需要大量资本去更新从而达到维持优势，创造利润的企业！从这点，很多技术性企业就被踢出出去了，而您好像投资了不少技术企业，你怎么看这个问题？",[904,1636,1637,1639],{},[913,1638,915],{}," 呵呵，行业问题说不清，好像存在的大多行业里都有好公司。",[904,1641,1642],{},"巴菲特有几条东西：能力圈、护城河、margin of safety，没说哪个行业。巴菲特追求的是产品很难发生变化的公司，所以他买了后就可以长久持有。但他也说过，如果你能看懂变化，你将会赚到大钱。归根到底，买股票就是买公司。无论你看懂的是长久还是变化，只要是真懂，便宜时就是好机会。",[904,1644,1645],{},"如果一，两年能看到一个这样的好机会，你的回报一定会很好。（2010-05-07）",[904,1647,1648],{},"以下内容不要轻易看，确实不容易懂，尤其是不要以为自己懂了就去做，尤其尤其不要用option去做投机！",[904,1650,1651],{},"金融衍生品有很多种，option是其中的一种。可以基于各种目的使用金融衍生品。比如：保险、对冲、投机、投资etc……",[904,1653,1654,1655,1658],{},"巴菲特卖的S&P的put option实际上就是一种（长线）投资，由于他用的是",[950,1656,206],{"href":1657},"\u002Fxinyu","担保，而且只有到期日才可以被执行，我不认为他是在用Margin。",[904,1660,1661],{},"网友：（投资）难在对未来风险的不确定性",[904,1663,1664,1666],{},[913,1665,1116],{}," ：不确定性是用margin of safety去对付的。（2011-05-09）",[904,1668,1669],{},"网友：决定申请融资融券账户了！段大哥一直说不要借钱，还是忍不住啊！",[904,1671,1672,1674],{},[913,1673,915],{}," 从此你会有个激动人心的生活！(2012-08-10)",[904,1676,1677],{},"网友：今困惑卡拉曼所说投资衡量重要标准不是投资回报率，而是所承担风险的回报率。不知如何较好理解。",[904,1679,1680,1682,1683,1686],{},[913,1681,915],{}," 长期看只有投资回报率。",[913,1684,1685],{},"短期看，有人会为了提高投资回报率而铤而走险，比如用margin。很多对冲基金是会用很高的margin的，所以摊上事儿的时候都是大事，所以大家对那些说今年回报有多高多高的基金的数字别太当真"," 。（2013-05-29）",[904,1688,1689],{},"网友：如果投了一个负债率很高的企业，属于使用margin吗？",[904,1691,1692,1694],{},[913,1693,915],{}," 似乎不属于直接用margin，不会导致你需要富两次。但是，我是不太喜欢买负债率高的企业的，除非我能特别懂。(2016-11-12)",[904,1696,1697,1698,1701],{},"“如果你想提高自己的认知能力，忘记过去犯过的错误是坚决不行的。”(",[913,1699,1700],{},"芒格",")",[904,1703,1704],{},"想起小偷被抓以后，满脑子都是如何改进偷技的想法的那个故事。",[904,1706,1707],{},[913,1708,1709,1710,1712],{},"所以这里的错误有两种性质：(1)做了错的事情一以后不能再做放上不为清单；(2)在",[950,1711,22],{"href":1368},"上犯了错误一这个不可避免，但可以通过学习改进。那个小偷犯的是第一个错，但用的是第二个改进办法，会更糟的。",[904,1714,1715,1716,1719,1720,1701],{},"“",[913,1717,1718],{},"最好是从别人的悲惨经历中学到深刻教训，而不是自己的。我们有些成功是早就预言的，有些是意外获得的。","”(",[913,1721,1700],{},[904,1723,1724],{},"不听老人言，吃苦在眼前和眼后。看了这句话以后，其实大多数人还是不会听的。",[904,1726,1727],{},"能从自己的错误里吸取教训就已经很了不起了，能从别人的错误里吸取教训的那都是天才。",[904,1729,1730],{},"坚持犯自己犯过的错误的人也不用太不高兴啊，至少股市上85%以上的人是这样的。有人陪总是一件不错的事情。(2012-06-26)",[904,1732,1733,1734,1736],{},"网友：我长期低杠杆投资比如0.3倍以内，融资成本6个点，在股指偏低位建仓，国内融资盘大概要跌七成才会爆仓，这种低杠杆长线",[950,1735,52],{"href":1267},"策略可以吗？",[904,1738,1739,1741],{},[913,1740,915],{}," 勿以恶小而为之。(2019-05-20)",[904,1743,1744,1745,1747],{},"用margin的人都不傻，但用margin是会上瘾的，直到掉坑里为止。其实还是",[913,1746,1009],{},"说得好，如果你懂投资，你不需要用margin，因为你早晚会富有的。(2024-09-03)",[904,1749,1750],{},"长期资本(Long-Term Capital Management)就是个很好的例子。那些人都极度聪明，两个诺贝尔经济学奖获得者加一群特别“厉害的人”，而且还赌上了自己的身家。(2024-09-01)",[904,1752,1753],{},"如果你懂投资，你不需要用杠杆，因为你早晚会变富的。如果你不懂投资，你更不应该用杠杆，不然裸奔的将可能会是你。投资是件快乐的事情，用杠杆会让你有机会睡不好觉的。(2020-12-06)",[904,1755,1756],{},"网友：感觉很惭愧，这些道理都是从十几年前就看熟了的，能背的，竟然还会时不时“不小心”动了用margin的念头，好在没有真的去做。",[904,1758,1759,1761],{},[913,1760,915],{}," 你值得惭愧一下。理解赚慢钱不容易，但理解复利更难。慢钱在复利的影响下，效果是非常厉害的。(2024-09-04)",[904,1763,1764,1765,1767],{},"网友：2023年时等了大半年",[913,1766,1140],{},"就是不跌，忍不住1600元时用手上的钱都买了。最近倒是一路跌下来了，可是没有余钱加仓了，好想借钱抄底啊。",[904,1769,1770,1772],{},[913,1771,915],{}," 我们不知道市场会有多疯狂，也不知道事情可能会坏到什么程度。",[904,1774,1775],{},"不要用margin是投资的基本要求！我们一直说的是10年20年，但你用margin可能会让你在那之前就陷入困境，没必要。(2024-09-18)",[904,1777,1778],{},"网友：我认为价值投资中的margin of Safety是重中之重，您怎么看？",[904,1780,1781,1783],{},[913,1782,915],{}," 很重要的东西之一吧。（2010-04-04）",[904,1785,1786],{},"网友S：今晚道琼斯跌了接近10%，9百多点，疯了。段大哥又有机会进yahoo了。想问问段大哥，此时的心态怎么控制。",[904,1788,1789,1791],{},[913,1790,915],{}," 如果你不是用margin，心态就不应该有问题啊。呵呵，头几年也会不太舒服，现在基本上无所谓。（2010-05-07）",[904,1793,1794],{},"网友：段总当年您创立步步高初时，花那么多钱做广告迅速开拓市场，我感觉有些冒险，但也觉得当时可能是最好的选择，您能讲讲当年成败得失吗？",[904,1796,1797,1800],{},[913,1798,1799],{},"段永平：我们做自己懂的东西，为什么你说是冒险呢？"," 和我买网易或者苹果没区别，可不知道为什么老是有人追着问为什么要冒那个险。用一块钱去买两块钱的东西不叫冒险，叫理性，只要记得不用margin就行。（2012-02-02）",[904,1802,1803],{},"网友：相信您在买入很多企业后也会出现一段时间内的股价大跌，请问您最惨时亏损了多少？是如何做心理安慰的？",[904,1805,1806,1808,1809,1811,1812,1814,1815,1817,1818,1820],{},[913,1807,915],{}," 你如果买的是好公司，没用margin，那你的公司大掉时你应该是高兴的。我买了",[913,1810,1216],{},"后，",[913,1813,1216],{},"从最高点掉下来超过40%的好像就有好几次，20%-30%的就多了去了(我没认真看过，也不在意)。任何一个公司的真正买家就只有它自己，",[913,1816,1216],{},"掉了的时候，哪怕我没钱再多买，我也是高兴的，因为",[913,1819,1216],{},"这么赚钱，公司一定会继续买的。",[904,1822,1823],{},"如果你不太小心地买了家烂公司，安慰自己的办法大概就是不停地对自己说：以后再也不赌了，再也不赌了，再也不赌了。于是从此可以打败90%以上的“投资人”了。",[904,1825,1826,1827,1829,1830,1832],{},"我们拿着",[913,1828,1216],{},"拿着",[913,1831,1140],{},"这么多年，老是有人在旁边一直说：你好难啊！我难吗？!难在哪里了？什么事情比这个更容易呢？",[904,1834,1835],{},"拿着好公司比爬山这种东西要简单甚至容易很多，如果你能确定拿着的是“好公司”的话。如果你不知道拿着的是不是好公司，那你坚持什么？爬山这种事情对很多人是需要坚持的。拿着好公司的时候为什么会有要坚持的感觉？是因为你不喜欢吗？",[904,1837,1838,1839,1841],{},"网友：您之前说过：如果你懂投资，那么你不需要加杠杆；如果你不懂投资，那么你更不需要加杠杆。年轻人往往处在需要钱（买房买车，付彩礼，养孩子）又没钱（刚出社会，没有积累）的阶段，所以年轻人可以在好公司股价特别便宜（例如前段时间",[913,1840,1140],{},"1400左右）的时候通过银行贷款来投资吗？",[904,1843,1844,1846],{},[913,1845,915],{}," 我的意思是：“如果你懂投资，你不需要加杠杆，因为你早晚会赚到钱的；如果你不懂投资，那么你更不应该加杠杆，因为杠杆早晚会让你破产的。”这里杠杆指的是margin，就是在证券行用自己的股票抵押的贷款。经常看见有人因为自己年轻又不懂投资，所以想学点更容易迅速亏钱的办法，这个逻辑很有意思。（2025-06-17）",[904,1848,1849,1850,1852,1853,1852,1855,1857],{},"网友：如果20年前融资买的是",[913,1851,1216],{},"、",[913,1854,1140],{},[913,1856,1188],{},"这些好公司，好像也没问题。但加杠杆的人总是喜欢乱买。",[904,1859,1860,1533,1862,1864,1865,1867],{},[913,1861,915],{},[913,1863,1216],{},"在过去二十年里，从高点下降40%或以上就有至少10次，10-20%更是不计其数，要是用margin买了",[913,1866,1216],{},"，就算不破产，大概率也已经吓破胆了？(2023-12-19)",[904,1869,1870],{},[913,1871,1872],{},"简而言之，太enjoy百分比有时候是危险的，有一天你有可能会去因为追求这个百分比而失去平常心。另外，很多对冲基金的短期百分比（10年以内）也是不真实的，因为他们往往会用margin。",[904,1874,1875],{},"顺便给大家讲个用margin的小故事：我有个朋友，对投资很在行，15岁来到美国，几万块钱起家，20多年里在股市上最高时赚到过20多亿美金，但2008年那次亏掉了大概90%，09、10年大逆转，11年大概又亏掉70%。所有大起大落的最大的罪魁祸首实际上就是margin！",[904,1877,1878],{},"有意思的是，我所有对不能用margin的道理最早都是他告诉我的，比如巴菲特怎么说margin，芒格怎么说margin等等。我个人觉得他之所以老是忍不住用margin的原因实际上是内心对百分比追求造成的。投资实际上是谋事在人成事在天，看重短期百分比是危险的。（2011-12-02）",[904,1880,1881],{},"有件事情很有意思：你可能拥有一家价值100亿美元的公司，而这家公司可能连1亿美元都借不到。但是，由于公司是上市公司，公司的大股东凭着手里的小纸片（股票）做担保却能借到好几十亿美元。但是如果公司不是上市的，它可能连那些大股东能借到的20分之一的钱都借不到。",[904,1883,1884],{},"网友：做生意可以贷款，为什么不建议借钱买股票？",[904,1886,1887,1889],{},[913,1888,915],{}," 借钱做生意一般而言是有还款期的，而且借款人对要做的生意一般了解度高，但也还是有很多人因为借钱做生意而陷入一生的麻烦。",[904,1891,1892,1893,1895],{},"借钱做股票是用你的其他股票抵押的，完全由经纪人(broker)控制，但市场大跌时他们会随时要求你卖股票还钱。股票市场有时会疯狂到无法想象，用margin的人一生也许只需要碰上一次市场向下的疯狂就可能会损失惨重(wiped out)。",[913,1894,1700],{},"这么聪明的人就曾经(20世纪70年代)因为margin而陷入大麻烦。",[904,1897,1898,1900,1901,1903],{},[913,1899,1009],{},"厉害的地方是其投资生涯中从来就没有过致命的大麻烦。",[913,1902,1009],{},"讲过，即使只有1%的破产机会你也不应该干。懂投资的人不需要用margin，不懂投资的人更不应该用margin。(2011-09-08)",[904,1905,1906],{},[913,1907,1908],{},"不买高负债的公司",[904,1910,1911],{},"网友补充2：大家可以想想借钱的好处和坏处：好处是如果一帆风顺的话会发展得快点；坏处1：增加经营成本，容易去赚不该赚的钱；2：经常在10年、8年中会有经济危机或者企业本身的经营困难，从而出现债权人要把钱收回去，资金周转出问题；貌似相当比例死掉的企业都是倒在这两点上。",[904,1913,1914],{},"【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012-02-17）",[904,1916,1917,1927],{},[913,1918,1919,1920,1923,1924,1926],{},"任何一家公司的获利能力取决于（1）资产报酬率（2）",[950,1921,58],{"href":1922},"\u002Ffuzhai","的成本（3）财务杠杆的运用（也就是其运用",[950,1925,58],{"href":1922},"而非股东权益来支应资产取得的程度）"," 。（1995）",[904,1929,1930,1931,1933,1934,1937],{},"网友：看了一下",[913,1932,1140],{},"和",[913,1935,1936],{},"万科","的年报，两家公司的盈利居然相差无几，而市值几乎相差一半，如果有钱买下整家公司的话，你会选择谁呢？",[904,1939,1940,1943],{},[913,1941,1942],{},"段永平：你借过钱不？"," （2014-03-23）",[904,1945,1946],{},"网友：段大哥别笑话我，没有看懂“你借过钱不”是想说明什么？",[904,1948,1949,1951],{},[913,1950,915],{}," 慢慢看就懂了。（2014-03-23）",[904,1953,1954,1955,1957,1958,1933,1961,1964],{},"网友：我有个一直困扰我很久的问题想请教您：“绿城中国”目前市值110亿，2018年财报显示现金及等价物490亿，流动资产2800亿，总",[950,1956,58],{"href":1922},"2500亿，即使现在清算也有300亿的价值，收入每年提高，缺点是年利润11亿有下滑（2017年26亿利润），另外绿城品质和口碑一直不错，为什么股价一直很低，我清楚这个标的肯定长期不如",[913,1959,1960],{},"贵州茅台",[913,1962,1963],{},"中国平安","，但就是不明白什么原因导致价格持续走低，请赐教。",[904,1966,1967,1969,1970,1976],{},[913,1968,915],{}," 我也不明白，",[913,1971,1972,1973,1975],{},"但我也不会买这种高",[950,1974,58],{"href":1922},"的公司"," 。（2019-05-20）",[904,1978,1979,1980,1982,1983,1985],{},"网友：想起好多年前大道对房地产企业的评价，高",[950,1981,58],{"href":1922},"、高杠杆，祝他们好运。当时很多人还颇为不忿的辩解说这是行业特征，大家都这样，不值得大惊小怪。现在看来违反了基本规律的，没什么能够避免最终结局。对很多常规意义上不会破产的企业，相对投资者来说是会破产的，资产重组、",[950,1984,58],{"href":1922},"化股等，对投资者来说可能都类似破产。",[904,1987,1988],{},"大道：哈，2012年的时候有个还算蛮有名的房地产商来“讨教”，我跟他说，你们债务太高了。他说，我们这个行业都这样，我的算低的了。我说出事的时候，有人从三十楼跳下来，你觉得你从十五楼跳下来会更安全吗？（大致意思）。他现在大概率不行了，不知道会不会后悔当年没听我的。那个时候如果他想救自己是来得及的。逻辑真是个好东西啊。（2025-12-04）",[899,1990,1992],{"id":1991},"第四节-不懂不碰","第四节 不懂不碰",[904,1994,1995,1996,1999],{},"网友：我认为",[950,1997,95],{"href":1998},"\u002Fanquanbianji","是重中之重，您怎么看？",[904,2001,2002,2004],{},[913,2003,915],{}," 很重要的东西之一吧。(2010-04-04)",[904,2006,2007,2008,2010],{},"我对",[950,2009,95],{"href":1998},"的理解是对公司的理解度而不是股票短期的价格波动。对一个伟大公司而言，有时候一点点价格差别10年后看都不是事，但因为差那点价格而错过一个好公司就可能是大事了。",[904,2012,2013,2014,2016,2017,2019],{},"其实这个问题我想了很多年，一直没懂",[913,2015,1009],{},"说的",[950,2018,95],{"href":1998},"是什么意思，但自己最后的体会就是这样，不了解的公司再便宜也可能不便宜。(2020-10-15)",[904,2021,2022,2023,2025,2026,2028],{},"“如果你对一家企业及其未来发展了如指掌，那么你所需要的",[950,2024,95],{"href":1998},"就会很小。所以，假设你仍想投资一家较为脆弱的企业，你就需要更大的",[950,2027,95],{"href":1998},"。",[904,2030,2031,2032,2034,2035,2037],{},"就好比你开着一辆卡车通过一座标明限重10000磅的桥，而你的卡车重9800磅，如果桥下只有6英寸深的沟壑，你可能会觉得没问题；但要是这座桥横跨大峡谷，你可能就会觉得需要更大的",[950,2033,95],{"href":1998},"。”(",[913,2036,1009],{},"，1997)",[904,2039,2040,2041,2043],{},"以前没看过",[913,2042,1009],{},"讲的原话，今天偶尔看到，发现跟我的意思一样一样的。(2024-01-21)",[904,2045,2046,2047,2049],{},"网友：大家都知道",[913,2048,1009],{},"不做科技股，那不符合他的理念。但科技股反而成就了您，您怎样衡量这种反差？",[904,2051,2052,2054],{},[913,2053,915],{}," 我只是做我认为我能懂的东西(以为自己懂也不一定就真懂了)，有些可能也许正好是大家说的所谓科技股吧。我分不清什么是科技股。(2010-05-30)",[904,2056,2057],{},[913,2058,2059],{},"看得懂什么不重要。好像现在的中国首富是能看懂饮料的人，也许下一个是个能看懂猪饲料的人。",[904,2061,2062],{},"另外，我从来不认为自己介入过互联网或高科技什么的。互联网或所谓的高科技都只是工具而已，就像当年的铁路、公路、高速公路、航空等等一样。(2010-10-22)",[904,2064,2065],{},"网友：好想买能安心睡觉的公司。",[904,2067,2068,2070],{},[913,2069,915],{}," 能不能安心睡觉在买以前就决定了。(2011-03-29)",[904,2072,2073],{},"我只是侥幸看懂了几个我刚好懂得的好企业而已。绝大部分我也是看不懂的，和绝大多数人一样。不过我看不懂就不碰了，很多人做不到还想赚快钱。当然，我也是很想赚快钱的，但知其不可为而已。(2024-06-17）",[904,2075,2076,2077,2079,2080,2082,2083,2085,2086,2088,2089,2091,2092,2094,2095,2097],{},"不懂不做，",[913,2078,1009],{},"一直如此。但懂有时候要有个过程，",[913,2081,1009],{},"也不例外，也会碰到以为懂了但后来发现其实不完全懂的东西。另外，",[913,2084,1009],{},"公司还有其他人管投资，",[913,2087,1009],{},"是放权给他们做的，但他们的理解有时候和他会不完全一样，所以大家看到的",[913,2090,1009],{},"的持股未必一定就是",[913,2093,1009],{},"的风格。其实比亚迪就不是",[913,2096,1009],{},"的风格，通用汽车也不是。",[904,2099,2100,2101,2103],{},"在石油公司上",[913,2102,1009],{},"也认为自己犯了一个几十亿美元的错误(把中石油上赚的钱亏进去很多)。(2012-10-10)",[904,2105,2106,2108,2109,2111,2112,2114,2115,2117],{},[913,2107,1009],{},"讲的",[950,2110,27],{"href":1413},"子指的就是每个人都有自己有限的了解范围。每个人总是有些东西懂有些东西不懂。所以投自己懂的东西就容易知道价值，就知道什么叫便宜，就有机会赚钱，反之亦然。如果你买觉得心虚的东西就是",[950,2113,119],{"href":982},"，",[950,2116,119],{"href":982},"当然也有赚钱的时候，但风险大，睡不好觉。(2010-03-25)",[904,2119,2120],{},"网友L：（借钱、做空、做不懂的）是投资失败的充分条件。其实，要做到不借钱和懂企业也是需要相当的时间（这是开始投资前的必要条件）。好消息是做自己能力圈里的喜欢的事，容易并乐在其中并往往有机会有闲钱，如果有闲钱的同时还喜欢投资（投资成功的必要条件），就有机会弄懂“好的生意模式、好的价格、好的管理人”，段大哥，我这样理解对吗？",[904,2122,2123,2125],{},[913,2124,915],{}," 借钱、做空、投机都是有诱惑的，未必一定会失败，所以也不是充分条件。看来充要条件的逻辑确实不好懂。（2013-03-30）",[904,2127,2128],{},"网友：随着投资经验的增加，你和以前比进步在哪些方面？",[904,2130,2131,1533,2133],{},[913,2132,915],{},[913,2134,2135],{},"呵呵，心态好很多，不怕失去机会，最重要的是不犯大错。(2010-03-18)",[904,2137,2138],{},"网友：投资中超出自己的领域时，求助专家建议也许不是最坏的打算？",[904,2140,2141,2143],{},[913,2142,915],{}," “砖家”建议你也敢听？超出领域时最好别碰，除非你能搞懂。当你不懂时，专家帮不了忙。专家只能提供参考意见，你要是不懂还是无法决策的。(2010-04-18)",[904,2145,2146],{},"专家可以在细节上帮很多忙，但不能帮你决策。(2010-04-19)",[904,2148,2149],{},[913,2150,2151,2152,2154],{},"其实我最大的财富就是我犯过的这些错误，",[913,2153,1009],{},"也是。(2010-05-05)",[904,2156,2157,2158,2160],{},"网友：投资股票，你最热衷什么行业？什么行业确定性最大？",[913,2159,1009],{},"提出最好的企业是不需要投入大量资本于更新而能维持优势、创造利润的企业。从这点，很多技术型企业就被踢出去了。而您好像投资了不少技术企业？",[904,2162,2163,1639],{},[913,2164,915],{},[904,2166,2167,2169,2170,1852,2172,1852,2175,2177,2178,2180],{},[913,2168,1009],{},"有几条东西：",[950,2171,27],{"href":1413},[950,2173,68],{"href":2174},"\u002Fhuchenghe",[950,2176,95],{"href":1998},"，他没说哪个行业。",[913,2179,1009],{},"追求的是产品很难发生变化的公司，所以他买了后就可以长久持有。但他也说过，如果你能看懂变化，你将会赚到大钱。归根到底，买股票就是买公司。",[904,2182,2183],{},"无论你看懂的是长久还是变化，只要是真懂，便宜时就是好机会。",[904,2185,2186],{},"如果一两年能看到一个这样的好机会，你的回报一定会很好。(2010-05-08)",[904,2188,2189,2190,2192],{},"网友：比尔·米勒(Bill Miller)这次金融危机亏掉了老本，连续15年战胜指数，但一年的亏损就把15年的利润搞没有了，亏的比赚的多。他是不是太高估自己了？以前觉得他是个",[950,2191,52],{"href":1267},"者，这次危机中露出原形了，他曾经在安然公司上栽跟头，这次又在房地美等企业上栽跟头。其实价值骗子还蛮多的。",[904,2194,2195,2196,2028],{},"所以你对多少次都无所谓，关键是错的时候千万不要损失太大，这涉及",[950,2197,95],{"href":1998},[904,2199,2200,2202,2203,2205,2206,2208],{},[913,2201,915],{}," 我认为当一个人开始追求战胜指数的时候，他可能已经失去",[950,2204,12],{"href":1579},"了。很多人在这次金融危机中都有一些再也回不来的重伤股，",[913,2207,1009],{},"一个也没有，这绝对不是偶然的，但好像很少人注意到这点。(2010-05-23)",[904,2210,2211],{},"网友：当时卖空百度的理由是什么？",[904,2213,2214,2216,2217,2219],{},[913,2215,915],{}," 首先，卖空行为是错的。当时确实看到了一些百度不对的东西，事实上百度后来也因为这个掉得很低(如果我能一直空到那时实际上可以赚大钱)，但我也确实忽略了一些对百度有利的重要条件，比如政策环境等。总而言之，卖空行为是",[950,2218,119],{"href":982},"行为，吾不该为之。(2010-09-14)",[904,2221,2222,2223,2225],{},"当时不知道哪根神经起了主导作用，属于失去",[950,2224,12],{"href":1579},"的愚蠢行为。(2012-03-14)",[904,2227,2228],{},"网友：看懂一家公司是否一定要到上市公司所在地考察？有些人为了了解上市公司，就专程到上市公司的所在地租房住了半年。",[904,2230,2231,2233],{},[913,2232,915],{}," 公司内部人也未必就懂自己公司，在当地住上半年怎么就一定能懂？搞懂一个公司实际上是没有公式的，不然就可以在学校开课教了。(2011-01-13)",[904,2235,2236],{},"过多拜访公司容易短视。我的意思是，很多人拜访公司是为了了解公司短期运营的状况，这种心态对长期投资的帮助不一定大。(2010-04-12)",[904,2238,2239,2244,2245,2247],{},[913,2240,2241,2242,1701],{},"“永远不要问理发师你是否需要理发。”(",[913,2243,1009],{}," 知道",[913,2246,1009],{},"为什么认为拜访公司不一定有用了吧？(2012-07-27)",[904,2249,2250,2251,2253,2254,2256],{},"所谓",[950,2252,52],{"href":1267},"说通了就是要能理解企业。所有能帮助你理解企业的东西都是有用的，但不会有一个充分条件保证你会投资。我没啥更好的建议。我一般讲的都是要有自己不做的事情，至于怎么才能",[950,2255,22],{"href":1368},"是要靠自己去摸索的。(2019-06-26)",[904,2258,2259],{},"网友：想起了彼得·林奇说过的话，你喜欢公司的产品，就要想想要不要买它的股票。",[904,2261,2262,1533,2264,2267],{},[913,2263,915],{},[913,2265,2266],{},"我一般倒过来想，不喜欢的产品的公司的股票不碰，因为没办法了解(感觉)。","(2011-03-24)",[904,2269,2270],{},"网友：投资难在未来风险的不确定性。",[904,2272,2273,2275,2276,2278],{},[913,2274,915],{}," 不确定性是用",[950,2277,95],{"href":1998},"去对付的。(2011-05-09)",[904,2280,2281,2282,2284],{},"网友：基于对价值的估计，在价格过高时做空算不算",[950,2283,52],{"href":1267},"?",[904,2286,2287,2289,2290,2292,2293,2295],{},[913,2288,915],{}," 做空不是",[950,2291,52],{"href":1267},"，因为你经常需要面对市场的疯狂，最糟糕的是，你不知道市场到底有多疯狂，所以做空会睡不好觉的。总而言之，",[950,2294,52],{"href":1267},"就是那种能睡好觉的投资。(2011-05-22)",[904,2297,2298,2299,2301],{},"任何时候，只要你还想着要空一把谁，那就表示你还是个",[950,2300,119],{"href":982},"分子(以为自己比市场聪明)。早点收起做空头的念头吧，老老实实去找那些可以让你睡得好觉的deal!(2011-10-29)",[904,2303,2304],{},"做空是愚蠢的！(2013-03-04)",[904,2306,2307],{},"我不做空，不想跟自己过不去。做空一家公司需要了解的东西远比做多要难得多得多，而且一旦错了就可能是灾难性的。(2020-10-28)",[904,2309,2310,2311,2313],{},"希望你有一天能理解",[913,2312,1009],{},"为什么讲不要做空，那时，你的投资就会再进一步。(2010-05-22)",[904,2315,2316],{},"我有个邻居(没那么熟)，是专门做做空生意的(我搞不懂怎么做哈)。前段时间突然问我是否知道“跟谁学”这家公司，说好几个做空公司在做空它，因为它做假账，理由是他们的成长太快了。我真的让我们教育电子的同事去了解了一下，得出的结论是：它的成长在这个环境下看不出任何明显不符合逻辑的地方。于是我告诫邻居，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。",[904,2318,2319],{},"那时候股价好像是在30-40之间。前两三个礼拜打球又碰到邻居，问起他是否还空着呢？他说是的，他们的成长太不可思议了，肯定是做假账。我看了一眼股价，那天80左右。",[904,2321,2322],{},"我完全不了解跟谁学这家公司，这里我想说的是：最好别做空哈！这个世界有很多你不懂的事情，为什么要跟自己过不去？",[904,2324,2325],{},"我其实就是想告诉那些和我的邻居有同样想法的人们，做空是很危险的，时间很可能不站在你这边。我看到这家公司从30多涨到130多的时候，我真的有点替邻居担心哈，我觉得他恐怕很难睡好觉，何苦呢？!",[904,2327,2328],{},"不喜欢的公司避开就好了，千万不要去做空，因为看错一次会让你难受很久甚至一辈子的，尤其是那些已经有钱的人们。没人希望自己需要富两次的。(2020-08-11)",[904,2330,2331],{},"网友：想请教你两个问题：第一个是：巴老做不做空，如果他能比较肯定，他还是不做空么？",[904,2333,2334],{},"第二个是：你有没有对未来不确定的时候，或者说恐惧的时候，如果有，是怎么克服的？",[904,2336,2337,2339],{},[913,2338,915],{}," 1．老巴教我的：不做空、不借钱不做自己不懂的东西。这个在这里讲过n次了。",[904,2341,2342],{},"2．只有不懂的东西才会恐惧，不懂不做就没什么可怕的了。这个好像也讲过n次了吧？（2011-08-24）",[904,2344,2345,2346,2349,2350,2352,2353,2355,2356,2358],{},"网友：看",[913,2347,2348],{},"伯克希尔","2002年的年报，",[913,2351,1009],{},"说：“在投资股票时，我们预期每一笔投资都会成功，在我们经营",[913,2354,2348],{},"的38年中，投资获利的个案和投资亏损的个案比例约为100:1。”这才是",[913,2357,1009],{},"真正牛的地方啊！厉害在几乎不犯错。",[904,2360,2361,2363],{},[913,2362,915],{}," 呵呵，你说到关键了。高手和其他选手的差别就在错误率低而不是能打出多少好球来。(2011-09-07)",[904,2365,2366,2367,2369,2370,2372],{},"网友：您大量买入",[913,2368,599],{},"和U-Haul Holding Company(UHAL)似乎都发生在2002、2003年左右，最近三五年有没有比较经典的大手笔投资的案例(除了",[913,2371,1216],{},")?",[904,2374,2375,2377,2378,2380,2381,2383],{},[913,2376,915],{}," 最好把",[913,2379,599],{},"也除掉，我就快成笑话了。(仿",[913,2382,1700],{},"语)(2012-02-02)",[904,2385,2386],{},"平均两年做一个大的投资决策的效果肯定比一年做两个更好。(2012-06-26)",[904,2388,2389,2390,2392,2393,2395],{},"大道这四年里只真正出手了一次，就是",[913,2391,1216],{},"，上一次出手是",[913,2394,1385],{},"，大概这是其会成为极少数人的原因？",[904,2397,2398],{},"如果大道只敢平均两年出手一次，凭什么“散户”可以出手更多？(2012-07-17)",[904,2400,2401],{},"我选股不厉害，是业余级的，花的功夫太少。但我犯错的机会的确是大师级的，不懂就是不碰。真看得懂这两句话的人日子长了一定会有不错的赚头哈。(2011-11-03)",[904,2403,2404,2405,2407,2408,2410],{},"好的",[950,2406,52],{"href":1267},"者并不是那些没有犯过错误的人。好的",[950,2409,52],{"href":1267},"者的最典型特征是从很多年的历史来看，犯错误(尤其是大错)的概率很低。常胜将军的意思是赢的比例高而已，百战百胜则是神话。(2011-12-19)",[904,2412,2413,2414,2416,2417,2419],{},"经营企业和投资一样，少犯错很重要。但所谓少犯错不是通过什么都不敢做实现的，那叫裹足不前。少犯错要通过坚持",[950,2415,17],{"href":1541},"来实现。而所谓坚持",[950,2418,17],{"href":1541},"是发现是错的事情就马上停止，不管多大的代价都会是最小的代价。不为清单也很重要。(2020-10-14)",[904,2421,2422,2423,2425,2426,2428],{},"网友：能否说说460美元的",[913,2424,1216],{},"与160元人民币的",[913,2427,1140],{},"哪个更便宜？",[904,2430,2431,2433],{},[913,2432,915],{}," 取决于你懂哪个以及懂多少。(2013-03-23)",[904,2435,2436,2437,2439,2440,2442,2443,2445],{},"我",[950,2438,27],{"href":1413},"小，能看懂的东西太少了，这些年确实没发现什么能让我用",[913,2441,1216],{},"或",[913,2444,1140],{},"去换的公司。(2017-03-13)",[904,2447,1185,2448,2450],{},[913,2449,1009],{},"不喜欢高科技行业是因为变化太快吗？",[904,2452,2453,1533,2455,2457,2458,2460,2461,2028,2464,2466,2467,2469],{},[913,2454,915],{},[913,2456,1009],{},"不喜欢高科技？",[913,2459,1009],{},"从来没说不喜欢，只说看不懂而已，但他一旦看懂也是一样会出手的，比如",[913,2462,2463],{},"IBM",[913,2465,1009],{},"还说过，如果你能看懂变化，你将能赚大钱。投资最重要的不是",[913,2468,1009],{},"能看懂什么，最重要的是你自己能看懂什么。(2013-05-26)",[904,2471,2472],{},"网友：投资和打好高尔夫，哪个更难？",[904,2474,2475,2477,2478,2481],{},[913,2476,915],{}," 两个都是我最喜欢的游戏，它们都很难。也许高尔夫更难些吧。我认为高尔夫更难的原因是，高尔夫你不能说这杆我还没想好，所以我现在不想打。",[913,2479,2480],{},"投资你永远都可以说，我还没想好，我不想做什么","。(2019-03-30)",[904,2483,2484,2485,1852,2487,2489,2490,2492],{},"网友：从",[950,2486,64],{"href":1144},[950,2488,129],{"href":1176},"、市场价格这三个维度去考察，懂的边界或标准是什么？考察到什么程度才算真正懂？往往会出现您常说的自认为懂其实还不懂的状况，也会出现因欠缺考虑某个关键因子而投资失误的情况。我记得",[913,2491,1700],{},"先生有个筛选公司的过滤清单。",[904,2494,2495,2497],{},[913,2496,915],{}," 这里没有一个公式，但你真的懂的时候你会知道的。最重要的东西是你能真正忽略市场的波动，聚焦在生意上。想象你打算买一家公司，拿着10年都不上市你依然能睡好觉，那你大概就懂了。或者倒过来也一样，当你觉得一家公司10年内肯定会有大麻烦的时候，你大概不会想买的吧？(2019-05-04)",[904,2499,2500],{},"看懂了一家公司的最简单的标准就是你不会想去问别人“我是不是看懂了这家公司”。(2019-07-24)",[904,2502,2503],{},"没看懂的公司比较容易鉴别，就是股价一掉你就想卖，涨一点点你也想卖的那种。看懂大概就是怎么涨你都不想卖，大掉时你会全力再买进。",[904,2505,2506],{},"看懂并买进的那种公司最好的状态就是不想卖。(2019-04-06)",[904,2508,2509,2510,2512],{},"你只要一直本着不懂不做，你就会少犯错误，时间长了你的结果自然比你不懂也做要好很多，这是要",[950,2511,17],{"href":1541},"的范畴。",[904,2514,2515,2516,2518],{},"如何搞懂是如何",[950,2517,22],{"href":1368},"的范畴，如果实在是搞不懂，就什么都别碰，把钱存银行，表现可能比大部分人强。(2022-02-18)",[904,2520,2521,2522,2524],{},"在",[950,2523,22],{"href":1368},"的过程中，错误是不可避免的，是个学习的过程。每个人都有自己的学习曲线。(2020-12-13)",[904,2526,2527],{},"网友：真的不懂相对容易分辨，但就是这似懂非懂害死人。",[904,2529,2530,2532],{},[913,2531,915],{}," 多数人的问题不在这里。另外，懂的意思差别也很大。很多人一辈子都努力在懂市场，我只是想办法搞懂某些个企业，难度差别非常大。搞懂市场是不可能的任务，Mission impossible!懂了吗？",[904,2534,2535],{},"懂市场这个说法不严谨。市场长期是“称重机”，短期是“投票器”。搞懂这两点的区别很重要。多数人花太多时间和心思在搞懂“投票器”上了。(2022-03-05)",[904,2537,2538],{},"网友：大道觉得什么时候可以抄作业呢？还是小仓位玩玩纯属为了跟踪一下？",[904,2540,2541,2543,2544,2546],{},[913,2542,915],{}," 我只偶尔抄一下",[913,2545,1009],{},"的作业，纯属好玩。不完全懂是不应该赌身家的。不敢赌身家的“投资”其实都很难算得上正经“投资”。(2023-03-12)",[904,2548,2549],{},"如果不懂，作业是抄不了的。如果懂了，不需要抄。投资非常简单，就是买生意。搞懂投资唯一的办法就是搞懂生意。当然，对搞不懂生意的人们理财是另外一个办法，比如买标普500指数或者QQQ这类指数。买基金其实比买公司还难，因为看懂一个公司比看懂某个人要容易很多，而且基金还要收费。(2024-08-08)",[904,2551,2552,2553,2555],{},"网友：按照这个懂的标准，普通人或许很久(3年、5年)也找不到一个",[913,2554,1172],{},"好、又几乎全懂、价格又合适的公司了。",[904,2557,2558,2560,2561,1933,2563,2565],{},[913,2559,915],{}," 这也是为什么大道一直觉得自己是普通人的原因。大道过去十几年实际上就真的看懂了两家公司，",[913,2562,1216],{},[913,2564,1140],{},"。平均六年看懂一家。(2023-11-16)",[904,2567,2568],{},"网友：您的投资公司名字可以透露吗？想跟踪它的13-F。",[904,2570,2571,2573,2574,2576],{},[913,2572,915],{}," 直接问买啥可以马上赚大钱岂不是更简单？知道别人投什么对不懂公司的人来说不会有啥帮助的。有时间还是看看",[913,2575,1009],{},"1998年在佛罗里达的演讲吧，有视频的。(2024-06-08)",[904,2578,2579],{},"你懂得，所以才是你的好生意。(2010-10-23)",[904,2581,1022],{},[904,2583,2584,1027],{},[913,2585,915],{},[904,2587,2588,2589,1701],{},"“市场就像上帝一样，帮助那些自己帮助自己的人，但与上帝不一样的地方是，他不会原谅那些不知道自己在做什么的人。”(",[913,2590,1009],{},[904,2592,1185,2593,2595],{},[913,2594,2348],{},"自己有保险业务，相当于买入同行UNH。想听下您的看法。",[904,2597,2598,2600],{},[913,2599,915],{}," 我不懂保险但直觉上觉得UNH前段时间可能遇到了恐慌卖出，很可能是个捡便宜的机会？我前些天还跟朋友说如果老巴买我就跟进一些（就是卖点put的意思），看来明天起我会开始卖点put了。",[904,2602,2603,2604,2606,2607,2609],{},"大致上我觉得UHN的",[950,2605,64],{"href":1144},"还是可以的，",[950,2608,129],{"href":1176},"方面不是那么了解但通过AI搜寻，也没看到特别不好的文化。负面新闻说他们的拒赔率高，但事实上他们去年利润并不高（不知道人们能不能看懂这里面的内在联系？）。",[904,2611,2612],{},"保险是个有意思的生意，老巴一直很懂保险，我也一直想搞懂，但一直不得其门而入，希望可以从这里开个头。",[904,2614,2615],{},"隔行如隔山，下不了重手赚不到啥钱。先这样吧，就当做个标记关注一下，说不定哪天就看懂了呢。",[904,2617,2618],{},"（2025-08-15）",[904,2620,2621],{},"网友：黄金是不是能跑赢通胀？",[904,2623,2624,2626],{},[913,2625,915],{}," 我以前也这么想过，后来发现黄金是跑不过通胀的(黄金的购买力也是会下降的)。不过，恶性通胀发生的时候，黄金应该有一定的保值作用吧。(2022-01-25)",[904,2628,2629,2636],{},[913,2630,2631,2632,2635],{},"段永平：黄金不产生",[950,2633,82],{"href":2634},"\u002Fxianjinliu","，不保值。"," (2020-05-17)",[904,2638,2639,2641,2642,2644],{},[913,2640,915],{}," 比特币不产生",[950,2643,82],{"href":2634},"，无法评估，属于不懂不碰的范畴。同理，我也不会投资名画、邮票、古董、郁金香……自己用的不算投资，虽然也可能会赚钱。(2022-05-02)",[904,2646,2647,2649],{},[913,2648,915],{}," 前几天还跟很早就买了不少比特币的一个朋友聊过几句。他的观点是比特币就像黄金，和市面上的说法差不多。我似懂非懂。黄金是稀缺的，比特币也是稀缺的，但搞出一个像比特币一样稀缺的东西很容易啊，搞出一个黄金属性的东西很难，毕竟铜汞银铂金，金是最稳定的金属哈。(2020-11-23)",[904,2651,2652],{},"网友：想请教一下大道对于稳定币数字资产的看法。",[904,2654,2655,2657,2658,2660],{},[913,2656,915],{}," 稳定币有点道理，发行方可以赚tbill的利息和",[950,2659,119],{"href":982},"者的期望，不过我没兴趣。（2025-07-18）",[899,2662,2664],{"id":2663},"第五节-杠杆的诱惑与下注的勇气","第五节 杠杆的诱惑与下注的勇气",[904,2666,2667],{},"网友：（网友分享持有比特币多年的开心）",[904,2669,2670,2671,2673],{},"大道：我有个很熟的朋友（球友），以前是跟着乔布斯的，非常聪明厉害的人，也有很多",[913,2672,1216],{},"的股票（成本几分钱或者几毛钱一股的那种）。他很早就投了比特币，一直没卖过。他几年前就一直跟我说比特币很有意思，等等……",[904,2675,2676],{},"两个月前我们一起打球的时候，我突然好奇问了一句：你那么喜欢比特币，而且一直没卖过，那比特币占你的财产比重能有多少，10%以上？他犹豫了一会儿，然后小声说大概1%吧。",[904,2678,2679],{},"投资很重要的一点是要敢下重注，那么喜欢的东西在涨了那么多倍之后才占了不到1%？那叫啥？概率上敢赌的人里面总有人会赌中的，但能不能重复是最关键的。（2026-04-12）",[904,2681,2682,2683,2685],{},"网友：大道，最近",[913,2684,1140],{},"跌得厉害，我已经没有钱加仓了，我今天去开了融资账户。我想在这个价位少配一点资感觉风险不大，但又违背您不加杠杆的教诲，真的好纠结啊。",[904,2687,2688],{},"大道：用margin其实蛮好玩的。大概就像拿着一把能装100发子弹的左轮手枪，但你知道里面只有一颗子弹。每天开盘时朝自己脑门扣一下扳机，大部分时候都可能没事的，但真的很刺激哈。（2026-05-26）",[904,2690,2691],{},"网友：我也用了margin，不过我场外有足够的钱能补足目前的债务部分。",[904,2693,2694],{},"大道：场外有钱且变现没问题的其实不算margin。margin指的是你用股票抵押借的钱，而且只有这个账号里的股票可以用来还债的那种。（2026-05-27）",[904,2696,2697],{},"网友：目前我个人财务状况简单，仅持有房贷。面对每月结余，应该优先清偿房贷再投资，还是保留温和的房贷，用增量现金流坚持入市布局？",[904,2699,2700],{},"大道：取决于你的财务状况。每月的收入多少，保障程度多大，房贷利息多少，心理承受能力多大。最关键的是，投资能力如何。如果你不懂投资的话，还是先老老实实把房贷还了比较好一点。以后有闲钱了再投资吧。投资一定是要用闲钱的，不然压力山大不合算。（2026-06-09）",{"title":2702,"searchDepth":15,"depth":15,"links":2703},"",[2704,2705,2706,2707,2708],{"id":901,"depth":15,"text":902},{"id":1086,"depth":15,"text":1087},{"id":1342,"depth":15,"text":1343},{"id":1991,"depth":15,"text":1992},{"id":2663,"depth":15,"text":2664},"md",{},true,"\u002Fdao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fwenda-invest-04",{"title":450,"description":452},"风险第一：不做空、不借钱、不懂不碰｜段永平投资问答录","dao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fwenda-invest-04",[2717,2718,2719,2720],"投资原则","风险控制","不做空","不加杠杆","teUyzYUU1ICG8t2eRn4B4sCnqtYa0jv6BKTe2wXHxKc","dao",[2724,2725,2726,2727,2728,2729,2730,2731,2732,2733,2734,2735,2736,2737,2738,2739,2740,2741,2742,2743,2744,2745,2746,2747,2748,2749,2750,2751,2752,2753,2754,2755,2756,2757,2758,2759,2760,2761,2762,2763,2764,2765,2766,2767,2768,2769],{"title":420,"slug":421,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9,"order":423},{"title":432,"slug":433,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":15,"order":435},{"title":441,"slug":442,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":20,"order":444},{"title":450,"slug":451,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":25,"order":453},{"title":459,"slug":460,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":30,"order":462},{"title":464,"slug":465,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":35,"order":467},{"title":473,"slug":474,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":45,"order":476},{"title":478,"slug":479,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":50,"order":481},{"title":483,"slug":484,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":56,"order":486},{"title":488,"slug":489,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":62,"order":491},{"title":493,"slug":494,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":71,"order":496},{"title":498,"slug":499,"type":424,"volume":425,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":80,"order":501},{"title":503,"slug":504,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":9,"order":506},{"title":509,"slug":510,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":15,"order":512},{"title":514,"slug":515,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":20,"order":517},{"title":519,"slug":520,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":25,"order":522},{"title":524,"slug":525,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":30,"order":527},{"title":529,"slug":530,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":35,"order":532},{"title":534,"slug":535,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":45,"order":537},{"title":129,"slug":539,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":50,"order":541},{"title":543,"slug":544,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":56,"order":546},{"title":548,"slug":549,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":62,"order":551},{"title":553,"slug":554,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":71,"order":556},{"title":558,"slug":559,"type":424,"volume":507,"volumeOrder":15,"chapterOrder":80,"order":561},{"title":563,"slug":564,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":9,"order":566},{"title":569,"slug":570,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":15,"order":572},{"title":574,"slug":575,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":20,"order":577},{"title":579,"slug":580,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":25,"order":582},{"title":584,"slug":585,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":30,"order":587},{"title":589,"slug":590,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":35,"order":592},{"title":594,"slug":595,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":45,"order":597},{"title":599,"slug":600,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":50,"order":602},{"title":604,"slug":605,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"chapterOrder":56,"order":607},{"title":609,"slug"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