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平理解好生意和护城河的重要指标。它不是随意卖高价的能力，而是因为产品差异化、用户信任和长期价值，让企业在合理范围内拥有不被价格战牵着走的能力。",22.5,{"title":150,"slug":151,"description":152,"category":132,"order":153,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"用户体验","yonghutiyan","段永平对用户体验的关注可以追溯到他做小霸王和步步高时期，那时他用\"消费者导向\"来表达类似的理念。2003年北大演讲中他说：\"对于企业来说，最重要的是产品，而产品又必须以消费者为导向，所以最终你要找准消...",23,{"title":155,"slug":156,"description":157,"category":132,"order":158,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"渠道","qudao","段永平对渠道的理解来源于他在步步高建立全国销售网络的实战经验。1999年在人民大学问答中，被问及步步高在管理上有什么特点时，他提到了\"地区唯一代理制\"的渠道管理模式。这是他最早公开谈论渠道策略的记录。",24,{"title":160,"slug":161,"description":162,"category":132,"order":163,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"平台","pingtai","段永平使用\"平台\"概念主要集中在分析苹果公司的商业模式时。最早出现在2011年他写的\"买入苹果思考\"中：",25,{"title":165,"slug":166,"description":167,"category":132,"order":168,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"生态系统","shengtaixitong","段永平使用\"生态系统\"这一概念主要是在分析苹果公司时。最早出现在2012年前后的投资问答中。当一位网友详细描述了苹果设备之间的联动体验（iPhone、iPad、Mac的无缝协作、App 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CEO、理解乔布斯追求、苹果文化与用户体验。",5230,{"title":848,"slug":849,"description":850,"category":753,"order":851,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","整理段永平对马云的评价：理想主义、现实主义、企业文化、勇气、阿里巴巴与保留。",5240,{"title":853,"slug":854,"description":855,"category":753,"order":856,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","整理段永平对丁磊的评价：很有悟性、网易、不卖公司、不会干傻事、单纯与现金克制。",5250,{"title":858,"slug":859,"description":860,"category":753,"order":861,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","整理段永平对马化腾的评价：人不错、年轻、微信、微信支付、腾讯商业模式与长期影响。",5260,{"title":863,"slug":864,"description":865,"category":753,"order":866,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","整理段永平对俞敏洪的评价：新东方、面对问题、韧性、好生意人、条汉子与能力边界。",5270,{"title":868,"slug":869,"description":870,"category":753,"order":871,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","整理段永平对季克良的评价：茅台质量文化、造钟人、长期工艺、质量坚持与企业传承。",5280,{"title":873,"slug":874,"description":875,"category":753,"order":876,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","整理段永平对黄仁勋的评价：真诚、有能量、长期方向一致、英伟达、AI 与能力圈边界。",5290,{"title":878,"slug":879,"description":880,"category":753,"order":881,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的公司，并区分高度评价、正面关注、曾评价后修正和仍需观察。",5300,"topic",{"title":884,"slug":885,"description":886,"category":753,"order":887,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的人：投资大师、企业家、创始人和关键经营者。",5310,{"title":889,"slug":890,"description":891,"category":753,"order":892,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","整理段永平从看不懂、保留或低估，逐步重新评估的公司案例：泡泡玛特、英伟达、阿里、新东方等。",5320,{"id":894,"title":589,"body":895,"category":416,"chapterOrder":35,"date":10,"description":591,"extension":2880,"meta":2881,"navigation":2882,"order":592,"path":2883,"seo":2884,"seoDescription":591,"seoTitle":2885,"slug":590,"source":10,"sourceDate":10,"sourceUrl":10,"stem":2886,"tags":2887,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"__hash__":2890,"_collection":2891},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-maotai-03.md",{"type":896,"value":897,"toc":2871},"minimark",[898,903,907,914,917,920,929,932,939,958,967,970,976,982,988,997,1006,1011,1014,1017,1020,1023,1028,1031,1034,1037,1042,1049,1054,1057,1063,1066,1071,1074,1089,1101,1104,1109,1132,1159,1177,1180,1199,1217,1221,1224,1229,1232,1235,1240,1243,1246,1249,1252,1263,1269,1272,1275,1278,1281,1284,1287,1292,1295,1300,1303,1308,1313,1316,1325,1328,1333,1336,1339,1344,1347,1356,1369,1375,1383,1398,1404,1407,1414,1419,1425,1428,1442,1448,1451,1456,1459,1462,1465,1470,1473,1481,1493,1496,1501,1504,1509,1512,1517,1523,1526,1529,1535,1540,1549,1560,1563,1568,1571,1576,1579,1584,1590,1595,1598,1601,1604,1607,1616,1619,1625,1628,1631,1634,1637,1640,1643,1648,1651,1656,1659,1664,1667,1670,1675,1682,1685,1688,1691,1694,1697,1702,1708,1734,1740,1748,1757,1760,1765,1768,1771,1777,1780,1783,1792,1795,1800,1806,1817,1820,1825,1828,1833,1839,1847,1853,1860,1866,1871,1877,1883,1889,1897,1903,1908,1911,1916,1924,1927,1937,1940,1946,1955,1964,1970,1977,1992,1995,2014,2027,2032,2037,2040,2047,2059,2062,2075,2086,2109,2124,2129,2142,2145,2157,2166,2171,2180,2193,2196,2205,2210,2215,2224,2230,2237,2240,2243,2249,2252,2255,2265,2268,2277,2280,2285,2296,2299,2304,2307,2310,2315,2321,2326,2332,2340,2344,2347,2350,2355,2358,2363,2366,2371,2376,2379,2384,2390,2393,2399,2404,2407,2412,2415,2418,2421,2424,2427,2433,2438,2442,2447,2452,2455,2460,2466,2471,2474,2479,2482,2485,2488,2491,2497,2500,2503,2508,2511,2516,2525,2534,2537,2542,2550,2571,2574,2580,2583,2586,2591,2594,2600,2603,2606,2609,2614,2619,2622,2627,2630,2635,2638,2643,2646,2651,2654,2659,2662,2667,2673,2676,2680,2691,2696,2702,2705,2713,2716,2725,2728,2731,2736,2739,2744,2753,2761,2772,2775,2779,2782,2791,2799,2805,2811,2820,2853,2856],[899,900,902],"h2",{"id":901},"第一节-长期价值与十年判断","第一节 长期价值与十年判断",[904,905,906],"p",{},"网友：如果看好一个公司，某一年增长缓慢一点或者负增长（正常情况下）你会担心吗？是不是长期看好就可以了？",[904,908,909,913],{},[910,911,912],"strong",{},"段永平："," 我是这样看的。如果我能看懂一家公司，认为其长期很有前途，短期的问题往往是买入的机会。（2010-04-12）",[904,915,916],{},"网友d：老巴说过“如果你在错误的路上，奔跑也没有用”，看来我在奔跑。“如果能从历史推测未来，那么最富有的人都是图书管理员”。pe是过去和未来没有关系，而投资就是要搞懂未来。如果给茅台给20pe也就是说我看懂了20年的盈利模式，那就要做好持有20的准备，20年才能回本好漫长的路。",[904,918,919],{},"老巴说“经验表明，经营盈利能力最好的企业，经常是那些现在的经营方式与5年前甚至10年前几乎完全相同的企业”，有点像茅台。",[904,921,922,925,926],{},[910,923,924],{},"段永平"," ：千万不要被pe误导，因为pe是个历史数据，未必能说明未来。",[910,927,928],{},"我说的pe一般指的是相对于未来长期实际利润的pe，不是一般财报上的那个pe。",[904,930,931],{},"你愿意给多少pe完全取决于你自己的能力或者说你自己的资金的机会成本，其实和市场无关。（2011-10-01）",[904,933,934,935,938],{},"网友：",[910,936,937],{},"茅台","塑化剂美国送检情况……",[904,940,941,943,944,946,947,951,952,954,955,957],{},[910,942,912],{}," 确实是我委托朋友去送检的，那瓶30年的",[910,945,937],{},"因为检测的指标多，时间确实有点长。报告上能有的都有了，大家只要不带预设观点去看，或许能有个",[948,949,216],"a",{"href":950},"\u002Flixing","的结论？如果",[910,953,937],{},"会为了改善口感加点啥的话，那30年的",[910,956,937],{},"肯定是最有动机加的，检测结果很能说明问题。",[904,959,960,961,963,964,966],{},"个人观点一直认为",[910,962,937],{},"不可能故意加塑化剂，这次的检验结果也从侧面间接证明了这一点。我绝不可能做空任何一只股票的，当然也绝不会做空",[910,965,937],{},"，看了这次检验结果后想多买点倒是真的。这个价钱拿个5年或更长时间的回报应该会不错。",[904,968,969],{},"大致重复一下自己的观点：",[904,971,972,973,975],{},"1.",[910,974,937],{},"不可能主动加塑化剂，但由于之前工艺或环境等问题可能真的多少有点，这次的检验结果间接证明了这点；",[904,977,978,979,981],{},"2.在1的前提下，该喝",[910,980,937],{},"的还是会喝的，因为酒精的伤害要大得多，按报告结果的分析也大致可以说明这点；",[904,983,984,985,987],{},"3.禁酒令对",[910,986,937],{},"销量的影响应该不会太大，这个纯属个人看法；",[904,989,990,991,993,994,996],{},"4.",[910,992,937],{},"这个价从长期来看不贵。这里不贵的意思是现在这个价买",[910,995,937],{},"，5年以后怎么看都应该比存银行要合算得多。(2013-02-07)",[904,998,999,1000,1002,1003,1005],{},"好像当年我们就是根据这份送检报告确信",[910,1001,937],{},"没问题然后开始大规模买入",[910,1004,937],{},"的。(2018-08-21)",[904,1007,1008,1010],{},[910,1009,912],{}," 确实是我委托朋友去送检的，那瓶30年的茅台因为检测的指标多，时间确实有点长。报告上能有的都有了，大家只要不带预设观点去看，或许能有个理性的结论？如果茅台会为了改善口感加点啥的话，那30年的茅台肯定是最有动机加的，检测结果很能说明问题。",[904,1012,1013],{},"3、个人观点一直认为茅台不可能故意加塑化剂，这次的检验结果也从侧面间接证明了这一点。我绝不可能做空任何一只股票的，当然也绝不会做空茅台，看了这次检验结果后想多买点倒是真的。这个价钱拿个5年或更长的时间的回报应该会不错。",[904,1015,1016],{},"4、大致重复一下自己的观点：1．茅台不可能主动加塑化剂，但由于之前工艺或环境等问题可能真的多少有点；这次的检验结果间接证明了这点。2．在1的前提下，该喝茅台的还是会喝的，因为酒精的伤害要大得多；按报告结果的分析也大致可以说明这点。3．禁酒令对茅台销量的影响应该不会太大，这个纯属个人看法；4．茅台这个价从长期来看不贵。",[904,1018,1019],{},"这里不贵的意思是现在这个价买茅台，5年以后怎么看都应该比存银行要合算得多。（2013-02-07）",[904,1021,1022],{},"网友：贵州茅台（600519）周四盘后发布年报，公司2012年实现净利润133.08亿元，同比增长51.86%。拟采取每10股派发现金股利64.19元的利润分配预案。",[904,1024,1025,1027],{},[910,1026,912],{}," 期内公司实现营业收入264.55亿元，同比增长43.76%；实现每股收益12.82元，同比增长51.86%。",[904,1029,1030],{},"2012年公司生产茅台酒及系列产品基酒42824.38吨，同比增长8.33%。",[904,1032,1033],{},"公司在年报中表示，预计2013年度公司实现营业收入同比增长20%左右。（2013-03-29）",[904,1035,1036],{},"网友：可惜买早了。（2013-04-01）",[904,1038,1039,1041],{},[910,1040,912],{}," 贵不贵要用用五年十年的眼光看，没办法绝对知道市场短期到底会怎么样的。如果没办法看懂五年十年就不应该碰，不要因为过去到过的价钱做决定。（2013-04-01）",[904,1043,1044,1045,1048],{},"网友：茅台半年报出来了，按这个半年报分析上半年销量减少了不少吧。按我以前预测的",[948,1046,95],{"href":1047},"\u002Fanquanbianji","，最差情况下茅台保持0.8-1元的业绩。长期看180元买入不亏。现在就面临这个最坏的可能了。",[904,1050,1051,1053],{},[910,1052,912],{}," 出报表了？长期看，在人民币不能流通的前提下，茅台这种商业模式我愿意给20倍的pe。未来10年茅台如果可以做到平均每年利润100亿，今天这个价钱就不贵了。如果能高些就有利润了。不要太在意季报或半年报或年报啥的吧？（2013-08-31）",[904,1055,1056],{},"网友K：多谢段大哥的提点！我会好好思考下这句话。",[904,1058,1059,1062],{},[910,1060,1061],{},"段永平：这是投资的本质，你懂不懂他都在那里"," 。（2014-01-17）",[904,1064,1065],{},"网友Z：送股的意义何在？",[904,1067,1068,1070],{},[910,1069,912],{}," 长期而言，送股除了能增加一点交易费用外是没有任何意义的！（2014-03-25）",[904,1072,1073],{},"网友：大道，请问您投资时会关注宏观经济形势吗？大道：主要看公司本身。好公司虽然也会受到大环境影响，但因为好公司大多比较健康，往往受到的影响比平均要小，回来的时候也经常是更快的。",[904,1075,1076,1077,1079,1080,1082,1083,1085,1086,1088],{},"就",[910,1078,937],{},"而言，一段时间内，",[910,1081,937],{},"的销售肯定是会受到房地产行业景气，商业景气以及禁酒令的影响的，但长期来讲i",[910,1084,937],{},"很可能解决了在哪里能买到真",[910,1087,937],{},"的问题，似乎打开了普通老百姓消费的口子。这么多家庭，每年逢年过节来上一瓶的概率还是蛮大的。蚂蚁雄兵的力量是非常大的哈。",[904,1090,1091,1092,1094,1095,1097,1098,1100],{},"对于想靠着买个票马上就涨速赚一票的人来说，",[910,1093,937],{},"很可能不合适，因为没人知道",[910,1096,937],{},"最后会掉到哪里。但10年后来看，今天的",[910,1099,937],{},"是真的不贵哈。（2026-01-22）",[904,1102,1103],{},"网友：大道，未来10年20年，你觉得茅台增长的瓶颈是什么？",[904,1105,1106,1108],{},[910,1107,912],{}," 我觉得在相对于通胀而言，茅台增长没有瓶颈，应该可以轻松打败通胀。",[904,1110,1111,1112,1114,1115,1118,1119,1122,1123,1125,1126,1128,1129,1131],{},"网友：有人说",[910,1113,937],{},"的",[948,1116,68],{"href":1117},"\u002Fhuchenghe","是强大的",[948,1120,135],{"href":1121},"\u002Fpinpai","价值，您说所谓",[948,1124,135],{"href":1121},"是产品在消费者心里留下的印象，没有",[948,1127,135],{"href":1121},"溢价，因为产品是不同的产品。我认同您的观点，但我就是想不明白，为什么53度飞天",[910,1130,937],{},"不能被模仿，不能被拷贝，拷贝后同样的品质卖更低的价格？很希望得到您的解答。",[904,1133,1134,1136,1137,1139,1140,1142,1143,1145,1146,1148,1149,1151,1152,1154,1155,1158],{},[910,1135,912],{}," 跟不喝",[910,1138,937],{},"也不认识喝",[910,1141,937],{},"的人们聊",[910,1144,937],{},"是不是件很怪异的事情？喝酒有害健康，年轻人不喝",[910,1147,937],{},"，禁酒令，以及你这种认为有人会喝和",[910,1150,937],{},"差不多的酒的想法都是有点那个啥的。fact is有人可以copy",[910,1153,937],{},"吗？有人可以copy",[910,1156,1157],{},"可口可乐","吗……？",[904,1160,1161,1162,1164,1165,1167,1168,1170,1171,1173,1174,1176],{},"（2025-08-21）\n前两天有朋友自远方来，开了这两瓶酒和不错的威士忌以及不错的红酒品一下。这两瓶",[910,1163,937],{},"一个是三十年的，一个是五十年的（蓝茅）。三十年的",[910,1166,937],{},"是我在塑化剂事件期间买的，也有十几年了。品完后大家一致认为，这瓶买了十几年的30年的",[910,1169,937],{},"确实比50年的",[910,1172,937],{},"好喝。另外当时买的一升装的",[910,1175,937],{},"现在也非常不错了。",[904,1178,1179],{},"（2025-09-07）",[904,1181,1182,1183,1185,1186,1188,1189,1192,1193,1114,1195,1198],{},"网友：飞天",[910,1184,937],{},"可以拥有很强的提价权，而",[910,1187,1157],{},"似乎需要用低价压制住对手。是否可以认为可乐产品本质没",[948,1190,140],{"href":1191},"\u002Fchayihua","，它明白要依靠规模优势，所以长期没调价格？",[910,1194,937],{},[948,1196,64],{"href":1197},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","是否远优于可乐？",[904,1200,1201,1203,1204,1207,1208,1114,1211,1213,1214,1216],{},[910,1202,912],{}," 这是我告诉",[910,1205,1206],{},"巴菲特","先生我觉得",[910,1209,1210],{},"苹果",[948,1212,64],{"href":1197},"比",[910,1215,1157],{},"好的原因。(2025-09-08)",[899,1218,1220],{"id":1219},"第二节-估值与价格","第二节 估值与价格",[904,1222,1223],{},"网友：看段哥投资的股票，网易和UHAL，都是遇到短期困难的情况，是不是段哥偏好于这类公司？对于那些高成长价格也不菲的公司，段哥如何看？是否有投过？",[904,1225,1226,1228],{},[910,1227,912],{}," 对这种公司我可能有点优势。相对于大多数人而言，我可以比较冷静地去分析这类公司的问题到底是什么，是否可以解决。如果我觉得问题不是要命的，但价格已经是要命的情况下，我可能就会买。买这种公司要小心掉入价值陷阱。高成长的公司比较难买，必须要了解更多。我错过了腾讯和苹果，但买了些Google。说错过的原因是我当时曾经非常想买，但最后没动手。",[904,1230,1231],{},"（2010-04-13）",[1233,1234],"hr",{},[904,1236,1237,1239],{},[910,1238,937],{}," （2010-07-03）",[904,1241,1242],{},"谁能在评论里简单描述一下茅台的投资价值及其SWOT分析？我将挑一些转贴在此。转的帖不代表我的观点。",[904,1244,1245],{},"加忠对我的日志《茅台》评论道",[904,1247,1248],{},"投资价值：",[904,1250,1251],{},"1、茅台酒生产周期5年，现在库存酒价值：75000吨约1000亿元。",[904,1253,1254,1255,1258,1259,1262],{},"2、企业",[948,1256,82],{"href":1257},"\u002Fxianjinliu","100多亿（减",[948,1260,58],{"href":1261},"\u002Ffuzhai","）",[904,1264,1265,1266,1268],{},"3、未来",[948,1267,82],{"href":1257},"折现在：未来20年每年产能23000吨。约300亿，净利润120亿，按6%折现1350亿。",[904,1270,1271],{},"茅台的价值=1000+100+1350=2450亿，现在市值是1200亿。",[904,1273,1274],{},"SWOT分析：",[904,1276,1277],{},"优势：茅台生产环境不可复制，国宴用酒、历代领导摧宠形成国酒地位，1915年巴拿马金奖，酒品质是最好的，有定价权，企业文化好。",[904,1279,1280],{},"劣势：产能受地理环境限制，公司有啤酒、葡萄酒产业，未来可能搞房地产，我不看好。",[904,1282,1283],{},"机会：未来可能保持增长，现在茅台镇改造增加产能。",[904,1285,1286],{},"威胁：现在五粮液、郎酒、洋河、1573等酒崛起，竞争激烈。未来人们可以更加关注健康，少量饮酒。",[904,1288,1289],{},[910,1290,1291],{},"定性分析：",[904,1293,1294],{},"网友：段大哥：最近白酒含塑化剂事件累及整个板块大跌，茅台跌到13.5倍PE（动态）以下，五粮液跌到9倍以下，您对此“黑天鹅”事件如何看？是否存在巨大的投资机会？",[904,1296,1297,1299],{},[910,1298,912],{}," 虽然我不喝白酒，但觉得喝酒的人不会因为这个就不喝白酒了。（2012-12-06）",[904,1301,1302],{},"网友：段总，文章报道都是写你可能不怀好意，是要做空的！应该不会影响你打球的心情吧！他们都是用这种心理去读别人，所以他们永远都读不懂价值投资，我想能懂的人，真就是那种一说就通的人，而不是很多但是、这样、那样的人！你送检茅台，其实就是要搞明白公司是否在酒中加入塑化剂，看看企业讲的是否真实，仅此而已！",[904,1304,1305,1307],{},[910,1306,912],{}," 我想有些媒体是故意的吧，也许背后真是有空头在和他们一起搞？对于想买的真正的投资者而言，空头越多越好，因为最后只有空头才会不惜代价地跳进来的。（2013-01-31）",[904,1309,1310],{},[910,1311,1312],{},"定量分析",[904,1314,1315],{},"网友：段总：200元的茅台你认为大概是几折的内在价值？",[904,1317,1318,1320,1321,1324],{},[910,1319,912],{}," 假设茅台是一家非上市公司，现在手里有200块钱，要么放银行里，要么放茅台上，要么放别的投资，看看10年后的差异就知道折头了。所以多少折和自己的能力圈有关，如果自己能力圈内有比茅台更好的，那你买茅台在",[948,1322,109],{"href":1323},"\u002Fjihuichengben","上就不合算，谈不上折头。（2013-02-01）",[904,1326,1327],{},"网友：以前我周围的朋友喝酒都很喜欢五粮液，不太喜欢茅台，说是浓香和酱香的区别．但现在茅台酒在市场上的势头明显更高一些，且大部分基金投资人在谈的时候也是谈茅台酒多一些．请教大道兄，除却价格因素和阶段财务报表的差异，这两个企业有什么差异呢？或者说为什么某一个比另一个要卓越一点点？",[904,1329,1330,1332],{},[910,1331,912],{}," 多认识些喜欢喝茅台的人也许会对你有帮助的（2013-02-23）",[904,1334,1335],{},"网友：贵州茅台官方微博上说：“为了更好地为消费者负责，我公司加大投入，采用RFID技术建立起茅台酒溯源体系，目前已完成芯片、终端选型以及运行环境搭建工作。其中采用的RFID芯片技术伴随NFC技术在移动支付领域不断普及，消费者能够随时轻松地通过店面终端、手机识别等方式验证单瓶茅台酒真伪。”",[904,1337,1338],{},"“目前，公司RFID溯源体系建设项目已进入收官阶段，在茅台成品酒出入库、包装、市场终端机以及个人手机终端已成功运用RFID射频技术，并已在北京、贵州开始推广，预计于今年三月开始在全国推广。因此，伴随该项目的完成公司必能更好地进行市场管理、物流管理，消费者也能凭借该技术放心享用茅台酒。”",[904,1340,1341,1343],{},[910,1342,912],{}," 加大投入的说法很有趣。不过这个做好了的话，几年后假茅台会更便宜的。（2013-02-25）",[904,1345,1346],{},"网友：酒这个东西对人体好像只有诸多坏的影响甚至造成损害，没多少有益因素，造酒是否是在做正确的事？",[904,1348,1349,1351,1352,1355],{},[910,1350,912],{}," ",[910,1353,1354],{},"呵呵，难道你觉得所有人都应该出家？酒给人们带来快乐，如果你的字典里有快乐，你会明白的","。(2013-03-19)",[904,1357,1358,1359,1361,1362,1368],{},"价格战一般在产品",[948,1360,140],{"href":1191},"很小时容易发生。",[910,1363,1364,1365,1367],{},"酒是有很大",[948,1366,140],{"href":1191},"的东西，至少感觉如此","。(2011-01-14)",[904,1370,1371,1372,1374],{},"网友：找到一个让自己放心的算法，中国15岁以上人口约11.5亿，假设11.5亿人口中只5%有能力消费",[910,1373,937],{},"那就约6000万人……",[904,1376,1377,1379,1380,1382],{},[910,1378,912],{}," 我没算过，但认为",[910,1381,937],{},"只要能解决假酒问题，销量还会上升，而且价钱也会至少赶上通胀。(2013-03-19)价格会被炒高的内在原因是真实的需求，作为股东没啥好担心的，就算价格掉下来也是会再回去的。万一这一幕重演，那一天真来了，请翻到这一页，想想内在原因，然后再多买点股票以及53度飞天，就像上次那样哈。(2017-08-17)",[904,1384,1385,1386,1388,1389,1391,1392,1394,1395,1397],{},"我不懂什么叫金融属性。",[910,1387,937],{},"确实具有存储增值属性。我猜绝大多数存",[910,1390,937],{},"的人都不是为了增值的，但大家确实会体会到要想买到以前存的那些年份的酒，价钱会比原来贵不少。塑化剂事件的时候，我买了一些两斤装的和30年的",[910,1393,937],{},"(现在两斤装的也已经自然存了10多年了)，因为自己不太喝",[910,1396,937],{},"，所以大部分还存着。",[904,1399,1400,1401,1403],{},"偶尔有喝",[910,1402,937],{},"的朋友来喝都喜欢得不行。如果想要再买这些酒，假设能找到的话，价格应该会贵不少了，大概率比拿着黄金合算。(2024-06-16)",[904,1405,1406],{},"“金融属性”就是伪概念！(2024-06-17)",[904,1408,1409,1410,1413],{},"网友：我个人感觉一家白酒企业能不能成功，长远的来看在于“好不好喝”，其他的都不重要。至于贵不贵，假设一切都风平浪静了。能有多大的销量，多少利润。然后倒推。中性的看待未来，",[948,1411,191],{"href":1412},"\u002Fnaixin","等待。",[904,1415,1416,1418],{},[910,1417,912],{}," 是啊，好不好喝是关键。茅台已经“好喝”这么多年了。居然有人非说人们买茅台是因为茅台贵，有趣，有点像说iPhone的用户都是为了显摆一样。消费者的眼睛是雪亮雪亮的，只要时间足够长，啥事都能明白。（2013-04-02）",[904,1420,1421,1424],{},[910,1422,1423],{},"right business + right people + right price + time = good result。虽然这个不是投资的充分公式，但好结果却是个比较大概率的事件。"," （2013-04-20）",[904,1426,1427],{},"网友：个人感觉一家白酒企业能不能成功，长远来看在于好不好喝，其他的都不重要。",[904,1429,1430,1432,1433,1435,1436,1438,1439,1441],{},[910,1431,912],{}," 是啊，好不好喝是关键。",[910,1434,937],{},"已经好喝这么多年了。居然有人非说人们买",[910,1437,937],{},"是因为",[910,1440,937],{},"贵，有趣。有点像说iPhone的用户都是为了显摆一样。消费者的眼睛是雪亮雪亮的，只要时间足够长，啥事都能明白。",[904,1443,1444,1445,1447],{},"我发现真",[910,1446,937],{},"确实非常好喝，连我这种不喝白酒的人都会想喝哈。(2013-04-23)",[904,1449,1450],{},"网友：近1-2年不可能再提价了，再说茅台现在量价齐升。",[904,1452,1453,1455],{},[910,1454,912],{}," 量价齐升，所以不可能提价了？什么逻辑？如果茅台能真正解决假茅台的问题，茅台这个价绝对还可以提。很多人不太买茅台的原因绝对不是因为贵，而是不知道在哪里可以肯定买到真的。买到假的时候人们是没太多办法解决的，总不能每次买的时候先打开喝一口吧？总不能把一整箱酒全部打开各喝一口吧？",[904,1457,1458],{},"有些卖假茅台的甚至用的办法是一箱真酒里混几瓶假的，利润率立刻就大幅度上去了。我现在甚至怀疑我上次在美国送检的茅台酒里都有可能有假的。（2013-04-23）",[904,1460,1461],{},"网友：还得喝真茅台：这一年开始买飞天给自己家人喝（以前从没买过），才发现想买到合适价格的真茅台还挺难的；1：京东自营899的时候买过几瓶；2、各超市、商场、烟酒店价格太乱不敢买（1200-1999的价格都有）；3：去了北三环的直营店，1519买的，货放心，价格也能接受，就是这地方太难找。",[904,1463,1464],{},"在买酒的过程就有一个疑问，飞天这样高品质的产品，为什么要采用跟普通商品似的层层转卖，最终到消费者这个环节的时候，价格又乱又不知道真假？",[904,1466,1467,1469],{},[910,1468,912],{}," 茅台的销售体系有点乱，可能是跟他是国营企业有关系。茅台的销售的背后有着巨大的利益，领导同志们可能会接到很多各种各样的条子，关系很难处理。另外，假冒的茅台也有着更巨大的利益，如果用现在这套体系来对付，看起来似乎有点力不从心。（2013-04-25）",[904,1471,1472],{},"网友：段大哥说投A股非常难，是指A股大部分时间里都非常贵吗？",[904,1474,1475,1477,1478,1480],{},[910,1476,912],{}," 便宜或贵的说法取决于对公司10年后的状况的认识，很难在A股找到能看明白10年或以上的公司。我喜欢",[910,1479,937],{},"也是基于这点。(2013-06-21)",[904,1482,1483,1484,1486,1487,1489,1490,1492],{},"长期看，在人民币不能流通的前提下，",[910,1485,937],{},"这种",[948,1488,64],{"href":1197},"我愿意给20 倍的市盈率。未来10年",[910,1491,937],{},"如果可以做到平均每年利润100亿，今天这个价钱就不贵了。如果能高些就有利润了。不要太在意季报或半年报或年报啥的吧？(2013-08-31)",[904,1494,1495],{},"网友：刚才去茅台网上商城看了一下，53度新飞天1159，53度飞天1149，看来原来的价格卖不动了（1519）。感觉茅台这一降价，经销商想涨价也涨不上去了。",[904,1497,1498,1500],{},[910,1499,912],{}," 这个价格好，更多人可以消费的起。（2013-07-25）",[904,1502,1503],{},"网友：阿段能说说高了些的基本判断原则吗？比如抽烟的话我观察周围同事一般都在可支配收入的10%左右，一千多块钱的茅台酒的话很多人碰到高兴的事基本买一瓶不是太困难。",[904,1505,1506,1508],{},[910,1507,912],{}," 1000块以下的出厂价，1500多的零售价的酒，感觉上确实贵了点，尤其是量还很大的时候。现在这个价合适。（2013-07-26）",[904,1510,1511],{},"网友：平均年利润100亿，现在的市值为1800亿，那不是要18年以后才收回投资，和银行的利息差不多，价值还不贵，想了一天还是不明白，请教段大哥一下。",[904,1513,1514,1516],{},[910,1515,912],{}," 如果只有100亿，那买茅台就只能保本或微利了。愿意买茅台的人不会认为茅台长期只能赚100亿的。（2013-09-01）",[904,1518,1519,1522],{},[910,1520,1521],{},"03．段永平"," ：进入九月份了。（注：2013-09-01）",[904,1524,1525],{},"突然想起一个武侠小说的场景：静静在一旁看着大家乱斗了一年的那个……",[904,1527,1528],{},"该出手了？我说得是苹果该出东西了，和茅台没啥关系。茅台过去一年招还出得少么？不过，能有个跌停确实不错。市场有时候是可以跌到很难相信的地步的，这也是不能用margin的原因。",[904,1530,1531,1532,1534],{},"网友：让暴风雨来得更猛烈些吧！",[910,1533,937],{},"140元了。",[904,1536,1537,1539],{},[910,1538,912],{}," “茅茅雨”哈。用5年10年的眼光看，中间的起跌都不是事儿。(2013-09-17)",[904,1541,1542,1543,1114,1545,1548],{},"我觉得",[910,1544,937],{},[910,1546,1547],{},"生意模式","很难得，价钱合适就可以买，未必要等到很便宜。从10年以上的角度看，130或160或200差别其实没那么大。",[904,1550,1551,1553,1554,1556,1557,1559],{},[910,1552,937],{},"还是",[910,1555,937],{},"，",[910,1558,1547],{},"杠杠的，10年后人们还是会说10年前那个价格真不贵。(2017-12-14)",[904,1561,1562],{},"网友：今天，茅台合作电商酒仙网淘宝官方店53°飞天茅台停售了，也不知道是不是卖断了！茅台目前仅1400亿市值，长城汽车市值也1490亿！这两个企业应该不是一个级别的，买入茅台睡大觉不是没有道理的。",[904,1564,1565,1567],{},[910,1566,912],{}," 两个企业比价是没有逻辑的。（2013-09-27）",[904,1569,1570],{},"网友J：茅台的基酒14万吨，其中飞天的基酒10万吨，按照819的出厂价格，价值1600亿左右，毛估估三折后为480亿，加上它的现金180亿，现在年净利润在100亿多点，现在市值1400亿，是不是比较便宜了？段总方便点评下吗？",[904,1572,1573,1575],{},[910,1574,912],{}," 难道每下降一块钱你都希望有人出来点评一下心里才觉得舒服么？（2013-09-28）",[904,1577,1578],{},"网友B：威武，以吨为单位扫货。段总，您不喝白酒的人也开始投资白酒实物。",[904,1580,1581,1583],{},[910,1582,912],{}," 我买了一箱两斤装的，已经送人了。（2013-09-30）",[904,1585,1586,1587,1589],{},"网友H：请问为什么两个企业比价是没有逻辑呢？如果是考虑两个企业的净",[948,1588,82],{"href":1257},"贴现，比价的逻辑是否成立呢？",[904,1591,1592,1594],{},[910,1593,912],{}," 这里我说的是不能因为某个公司股价虚高就认为另一个公司低估的。（2013-09-30）",[904,1596,1597],{},"网友：1、我对目前价格的茅台很感兴趣，但至今从未持有茅台，所以基本上不存在需要人肯定，更不会存在有了肯定这个股票，我心里就舒服的概念。",[904,1599,1600],{},"2、是想请教您下，我对茅台的估值是否合理。在请教您之前，您所有关于茅台的言论，我基本上都找来看了，也转摘了部分到自己新浪的博客上了。只是在茅台这个股票上，没有看到你有类似“雅虎、苹果、特斯拉电动等”那么详细的估值，您更多是从生意模式去回答大家，所以才有“段总方便点评下吗？”一问。当然，生意模式是最重要的。",[904,1602,1603],{},"3、看到您两个“难道”的回答，我知道了，您对这个票，不方便多说或者不想多说。",[904,1605,1606],{},"4、跟踪、学习您的博客3年以上了，受益匪浅！",[904,1608,1609,1611,1612,1615],{},[910,1610,912],{}," 嗯嗯，我可能没太认真看你问的是啥或者觉得自己以前说过了。",[910,1613,1614],{},"我觉得茅台的生意模式很难得，价钱合适就可以买，未必要等到很便宜。从10年以上的角度看，130或160或200差别其实没那么大"," 。（2013-09-30）",[904,1617,1618],{},"网友K：我的毛估估是10年量一倍，价一倍，今年150亿净利润，10年后600亿净利润，茅台市值可能能上万亿。",[904,1620,1621,1624],{},[910,1622,1623],{},"段永平：只买生意，不预测股价"," 。（2014-01-16）",[904,1626,1627],{},"网友S：对茅台这份半年报说几点看法：",[904,1629,1630],{},"一、年份酒和系列酒销量下降，53度飞天销量增长（53度飞天市场占有率提升，年份酒和系列酒以后能增长那是锦上添花）",[904,1632,1633],{},"二、预收款5.4亿，去年是30.4亿，少了25亿。（其实看预收款那是以前供不应求时的茅台，可还是有人盯着不放）",[904,1635,1636],{},"三、销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金140.58亿，去年是119.59亿，增长了百分之17。",[904,1638,1639],{},"四、国外收入3.13亿，减少百分之17.92。（离袁老板的三到五年国际上销量达到30%左右又远了点）",[904,1641,1642],{},"五、茅台现金210亿，存货130亿，今年利润150亿，现在市值1800亿．（这个价钱还是很便宜）",[904,1644,1645,1647],{},[910,1646,912],{}," 还没看财报呢，不过以前的也没看过。你说的这几点很好哈，简单明了，很能说明茅台依然不贵。（2014-08-29）",[904,1649,1650],{},"网友：茅台今年出招很少，说明最困难时期已经过去了吧。广州一个经销商说卖茅台能够有10%利润应该感到满意。消费者可以在大商场买，也可以在当地经销商处买，还可以在茅台网上商城买，价格理顺了，假酒的问题也慢慢在解决。",[904,1652,1653,1655],{},[910,1654,912],{}," 茅台有过困难时期？你是指股价？稳稳当当赚那么多钱的时期我们不应该叫其困难时期吧？（2014-10-17）",[904,1657,1658],{},"网友：段总，想到一个关于估值的问题：是任何企业都应该有个合理的估值，还是某些企业根本就无法估值？",[904,1660,1661,1663],{},[910,1662,912],{}," 大部分人说的估值都是指市场应该给什么价，这个概念的估值不说也罢。如果你不是这个意义上的估值，你自然会明白的。（2014-11-14）",[904,1665,1666],{},"网友X：段总对投资、对“价值”的这个思维总是这么清晰，没半点含糊，又受启发了。可不可以这样理解：估值即是自己要买入或卖出就出个价，是自己愿意真金白银买入持有或出让股票时出的价，也是根据自己能力看明白了之后才能给出的一个价，至于万万千千自己出不了价的公司、万万千千的其他人出的价，对自己而言并没啥估值不估值的意义，对吗？",[904,1668,1669],{},"我觉得当你真看懂一家公司，就能做好段总的这种思维清晰，决策明确，行为确切。",[904,1671,1672,1674],{},[910,1673,912],{}," 卖出可能会多一个因素，就是没人出价怎么办，尤其是想卖掉自己认为买错了的东西时。买入可以等，等不到没关系。其实对自己懂的公司估值没人们说的那么难，难是难在不容易找到自己想买的公司。我对苹果的“估值”就是个例子，只有两个方面，简单起来就几句话（大概）：",[904,1676,1677,1678,1681],{},"1．3000多亿市值，1000多亿",[948,1679,73],{"href":1680},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，一年净利润400亿，未来会到500亿或更多（看不懂这个的为什么要对苹果感兴趣？）；",[904,1683,1684],{},"2．苹果会将利润以合适的方式还给股东。",[904,1686,1687],{},"第二条在A股比较难解，这也是当时博友问我会选苹果还是茅台时，我毫不犹豫选苹果的原因。记得两年前有个朋友在球场碰到我，很沮丧地说他600多买了苹果，那时苹果一路在往下掉。我当时只说了一句：也许两年后你会觉得600块很便宜哈。（2014-11-15）",[904,1689,1690],{},"网友：袁仁国坚信「茅台酒目前在国内市场没有挑战者」，在他看来，中国人消费白酒的传统风俗习惯，并未因洋酒大举来华而有所改变；相反，白酒仍然是中国人偏爱的消费品。尽管中国白酒市场的白热化竞争已经持续多年，茅台在市场上的销量也时有起落，一方面受产能局限，另一方面，袁仁国认为，是他们始终恪守一个民族酿酒品牌的底线，「崇本守道，坚守工艺，储足陈酿，不卖新酒」。",[904,1692,1693],{},"据介绍，茅台的生产工艺分制曲、制酒、储存、勾兑、检验及包装六个环节。袁仁国表示，整个生产周期为一年，「端午踩曲，重阳投料，酿造期间九次蒸煮，八次发酵，七次取酒，分型储存，勾兑窖藏，五年后包装出厂」。换言之，茅台从生产到消费者手上，至少需要5年。",[904,1695,1696],{},"他透露，几年前茅台供应很紧张，市场出现短缺，价格被炒高，一瓶普通茅台酒市场零售价被炒到2000至3000元，当时库存有十多万吨，但为了确保质量，坚决「不到时间、决不出厂」。",[904,1698,1699,1701],{},[910,1700,912],{}," 茅台应该学学法国红酒的做法，让每一瓶酒都成为年份酒--每一瓶酒上都写明出厂年份。以后大家喝53度茅台前会说今天喝的是哪年哪年的茅台，而不仅仅是茅台哈。现在的年份在酒瓶上实在是不起眼。（2015-01-28）",[904,1703,1704,1705,1707],{},"网友：怎样才能改变",[910,1706,937],{},"在中国人心中的地位啊？",[904,1709,1710,1712,1713,1715,1716,1718,1719,1721,1722,1724,1725,1727,1728,1730,1731,1733],{},[910,1711,912],{}," 多推一些便宜的非53度酒，包括",[910,1714,937],{},"啤酒和红酒，甚至",[910,1717,937],{},"米酒啥的，以及",[910,1720,937],{},"矿泉水、",[910,1723,937],{},"酒店、",[910,1726,937],{},"手机、",[910,1729,937],{},"空调，加快推出的速度，5年出厂的规矩也不要了，假酒也不管……10年后，",[910,1732,937],{},"的地位就应该彻底不一样了。(2015-02-16)",[904,1735,1736,1737,1739],{},"网友：最近我去贵州的机会比较多，发现",[910,1738,937],{},"还真是好喝。",[904,1741,1742,1744,1745,1747],{},[910,1743,912],{}," 前几年我们每年都按出厂价买几吨",[910,1746,937],{},"酒，今年已经不行了，量不够，我们只拿到了两吨。变化得似乎很快啊。(2016-07-30)",[904,1749,1750,1751,1753,1754,1756],{},"好多人一直在担心",[910,1752,937],{},"的销量和销价的问题，但另一帮人则一直在努力申请直购",[910,1755,937],{},"的资格。我就知道有一年100亿人民币营业额以上生意的朋友申请很多年了还没批下来。(2024-10-23)",[904,1758,1759],{},"网友：最近我去贵州的机会比较多，发现茅台还真是好喝（以前说过我们这代人都渐渐不喝白酒改喝红酒了，看来还是图森破了）。开户买了些茅台的股票（第一次买A股股票），看着去年的价格，心里真是五味杂陈。",[904,1761,1762,1764],{},[910,1763,912],{}," 前几年我们每年都按出厂价买几吨茅台酒，今年已经不行了，量不够，我们只拿到了两吨。变化的似乎很快啊。（2016-07-30）",[904,1766,1767],{},"网友：1、我希望股份公司对终端销售价格能够有效合理的控制在1299元，减少中间销售环节存货炒作。",[904,1769,1770],{},"2、前几年茅台一路上涨到2000前多元，后来又回落到800元左右，市场销量严重萎缩，公司只能下达指标任务给经销商，这些问题都是由于市场炒作带来的后果，不能代表真正市场的需求，如果公司不能采取对终端销售价格得到有效合理的控制，茅台的价格可能会炒的更高，这一幕将会重演。",[904,1772,1773,1776],{},[910,1774,1775],{},"段永平：价格会被炒高的内在原因是真实的需求，"," 作为股东没啥好担心的，就算价格掉下来也是会再回去的。万一这一幕重演那一天真来了，请翻到这一页，想想内在原因，然后再多买点股票以及53度飞天，就像上次那样哈。（2017-08-17）",[904,1778,1779],{},"网友：刚从浙江喝喜酒回来，浙东南特好客，连喝三天。发现一个有趣现象：上茅台的时候，大家都喝茅台，一点儿不剩。上五粮液的时候，大家都说不胜酒力改喝红酒或啤酒。喝完茅台睡觉不难受，第二天头不疼，都是真实体验。以前我跟博客的朋友们说过，同龄人已经多数喝红酒不喝白酒了，现在看来并非如此。",[904,1781,1782],{},"现在茅台的消费群体已经不是政府接待类了，终端消费者很清晰，酒的价格断崖式下跌，估计是要出现质量丑闻、环境事故才会发生。这也是我最大的担忧（最大也没多大）。",[904,1784,1785,1787,1788,1791],{},[910,1786,912],{}," 好红酒上来的时候，喜欢喝红酒的人往往会先喝红酒。不过，好的红酒实在太贵（单位酒精量的单价），远不如茅台来的实惠。",[910,1789,1790],{},"茅台的质量文化不错，这也是茅台能走到今天的原因，季克良功不可没。"," （2017-08-19）",[904,1793,1794],{},"网友：请教段总现在方便评价茅台吗？（2017-12-12）",[904,1796,1797,1799],{},[910,1798,912],{}," 茅台还是茅台，生意模式刚刚的，10年后人们还是会说10年前那个价格真不贵。（2017-12-14）",[904,1801,1802,1803,1805],{},"网友：您是怎么考量给",[910,1804,937],{},"20倍市盈率的估值？感觉拿捏得很到位。",[904,1807,1808,1810,1811,1813,1814,1816],{},[910,1809,912],{}," 长期来说，存银行很难有5%的利息，所以",[910,1812,937],{},"长期的回报能到20倍市盈率或更好，",[910,1815,937],{},"就不贵了。(2019-03-15)",[904,1818,1819],{},"网友：大道您好！非常感谢您的分享，我受益颇多。请问您一个估值问题，您是怎么考量给予茅台20倍pe的估值？感觉拿捏得很到位。",[904,1821,1822,1824],{},[910,1823,912],{}," 长期来说，存银行很难有5%的利息，所以茅台长期的回报能到20pe或更好的，茅台就不贵了。（2019-03-15）",[904,1826,1827],{},"网友：请问您对现在万亿市值的茅台怎么看，它市值已经很大了，它的天花板在哪里，它还有多少增长空间？现价买入长期持有可否？",[904,1829,1830,1832],{},[910,1831,912],{}," 茅台的生意模式很好。哪怕你以目前的价格买入，10年后看也至少应该比你把钱放银行好。当然，你也许能发现更好的机会，所以这是个机会成本的问题。（2019-03-15）",[904,1834,1835,1836,1838],{},"网友：未来10年20年，你觉得",[910,1837,937],{},"增长的瓶颈是什么？",[904,1840,1841,1843,1844,1846],{},[910,1842,912],{}," 我觉得在相对于通胀而言，",[910,1845,937],{},"增长没有瓶颈，应该可以轻松打败通胀。(2019-04-06)",[904,1848,1849,1850,1852],{},"网友：用大道毛估估的算法，",[910,1851,937],{},"未来20年以上的年利润比现在只多不少。",[904,1854,1855,1351,1857,1859],{},[910,1856,912],{},[910,1858,937],{},"未来利润大概率是会比现在高的，而且大概率是越来越高……(2019-04-07)",[904,1861,1862,1863,1865],{},"网友：现在",[910,1864,937],{},"30倍左右市盈率，是否考虑过买入时机问题？怎么看待市盈率这个指标？",[904,1867,1868,1870],{},[910,1869,912],{}," 假设有个公司现在市盈率是30但未来30年每年利润的平均增长率为10%，你怎么看待？(2019-04-25)",[904,1872,1873,1874,1876],{},"对有稳定成长的公司而言，这几乎就是道简单的算术题。10%的年增长率，假设投之前的盈利是1的话，30倍市盈率就意味着投入30，第10年的回报总和就是17.5，第20年是63(如果我没算错的话)。而且，",[910,1875,937],{},"10%的平均成长很可能低估了。",[904,1878,1879,1880,1882],{},"假如你有一笔现金，长期没有使用计划，你觉得投在哪里最舒服(合算)?每个人的",[948,1881,109],{"href":1323},"都不一样，自己看着办吧。(2022-05-02)",[904,1884,1885,1886,1888],{},"网友：你当时怎么发现",[910,1887,937],{},"机会的？",[904,1890,1891,1893,1894,1896],{},[910,1892,912],{}," 早就知道",[910,1895,937],{},"，但后来慢慢理解了这是一个非常值得投资的机会，塑化剂事件是契机。(2019-09-21)",[904,1898,1899,1900,1902],{},"网友：如果现在",[910,1901,937],{},"涨到60倍市盈率，您是否考虑先卖出一部分？或者在什么情况下才会卖出？",[904,1904,1905,1907],{},[910,1906,912],{}," 目前还没有考虑过卖出的问题。好公司很难找，找到就先好好拿着吧。",[904,1909,1910],{},"跟眼前多少倍市盈率其实没关系，但跟未来30年的生意状况有关。(2023-05-14)",[904,1912,934,1913,1915],{},[910,1914,937],{},"未来3年净利润预测与买点……",[904,1917,1918,1920,1921,1923],{},[910,1919,912],{}," 3年的估计并没有太大的意义，但如果用这个办法去保守估计一下10年20年的净利润，再和自己的",[948,1922,109],{"href":1323},"对比一下，其实就很容易判断这笔投资是不是合适于自己了。",[904,1925,1926],{},"假设一家公司未来20年的平均加权成长(复合增长)是1%，目前利润是100亿，市值1000亿，你愿意投吗(可能也比存银行好，但你的钱可能会有更好的去处)?如果这些数据变为：20年的利润加权成长-1%，3%，5%，10%，15%(大家可以假设任何比例去得出不同结论的)，目前年利润80亿，市值2000亿，你愿意投吗？所谓愿意投的意思就是20年后看回来，你把钱放在你能放的最合算的地方了。",[904,1928,1929,1930,1932,1933,1936],{},"最简单的",[948,1931,109],{"href":1323},"对比其实就是银行利息和国债利息的最高值。如果无法大致判断一个企业未来10年20年的基本利润，其实作为一个投资人就不该碰这个公司，但",[948,1934,119],{"href":1935},"\u002Ftouji","是可以的。这里基本利润指的是至少能赚多少钱。如果能判断出来一家公司未来至少能赚多少钱后，其实就是个小学算术题了。所以投资其实就是要搞懂生意，无他。",[904,1938,1939],{},"简单但不容易就是这个意思。",[904,1941,1942,1943,1945],{},"以上发言和",[910,1944,937],{},"无关。",[904,1947,1948,1949,1951,1952,1954],{},"这里最有意思的一点是：20年的角度可以抹平一些(不是全部)不确定因素，提高投资的确定性。投资有风险指的是那些一直存在的不确定因素，所以拉长时间看会容易看很多。(2024-08-13)大道没建议过任何人买",[910,1950,937],{},"。大道的意思是，如果你有闲钱，买",[910,1953,937],{},"大概率会比存银行合算，如果你是打算拿10年以上的话。",[904,1956,1957,1958,1960,1961,1963],{},"这个不意味着",[910,1959,937],{},"不会跌，也不意味着",[910,1962,937],{},"会比别的股票涨得快。(2024-10-26)",[904,1965,1966,1967,1969],{},"网友：大道，",[910,1968,937],{},"的中报出了，您怎么看？",[904,1971,1972,1351,1974,1976],{},[910,1973,912],{},[910,1975,937],{},"出财报了？有什么好看的？（2025-08-13）",[904,1978,1111,1979,1114,1981,1118,1983,1122,1985,1125,1987,1128,1989,1991],{},[910,1980,937],{},[948,1982,68],{"href":1117},[948,1984,135],{"href":1121},[948,1986,135],{"href":1121},[948,1988,135],{"href":1121},[910,1990,937],{},"不能被模仿，不能被拷贝，拷贝后同样的品质卖更低的价格？",[904,1993,1994],{},"很希望得到您的解答。",[904,1996,1997,1136,1999,1139,2001,1142,2003,1145,2005,1148,2007,1151,2009,1154,2011,2013],{},[910,1998,912],{},[910,2000,937],{},[910,2002,937],{},[910,2004,937],{},[910,2006,937],{},[910,2008,937],{},[910,2010,937],{},[910,2012,1157],{},"吗……？（2025-08-21）",[904,2015,2016,2017,1164,2019,1167,2021,1170,2023,1173,2025,1176],{},"前两天有朋友自远方来，开了这两瓶酒和不错的威士忌以及不错的红酒品一下。这两瓶",[910,2018,937],{},[910,2020,937],{},[910,2022,937],{},[910,2024,937],{},[910,2026,937],{},[904,2028,934,2029,2031],{},[910,2030,937],{},"销售价一直下降你就不担心吗？",[904,2033,2034,2036],{},[910,2035,912],{}," 你担心什么？（2025-10-14）",[904,2038,2039],{},"网友：大道这个办法听起来不难呀，可在实际操作中我们这个行业接触到的厂家没有一个工厂可以做得到，台上讲的漂漂亮亮，台下执行的一塌糊涂，都在为销售额、市场占有率、成本过高（裁减员工）、相互串货（睁一只眼闭一只眼）、线上乱价等，我觉得核心问题是台上讲的他自己不是真的信。",[904,2041,2042,2043,2046],{},"大道：人们往往都说“",[948,2044,52],{"href":2045},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","”很难，所以他们往往都选择了更难的办法。（2025-10-26）",[904,2048,2049,2050,2052,2053,2055,2056,2058],{},"网友：略微觉得段总的第二个策略是不是有点问题？",[910,2051,937],{},"的价格很大程度是由市场决定的，如果强行让经销商卖1499元，那因为",[910,2054,937],{},"供不应求的属性，就会有很多其他经销商去抢购这些1499的",[910,2057,937],{},"，然后再转手以更高的价格出售，如此强行让经销商控价的举措不是等于让经销商白白放弃利润吗？",[904,2060,2061],{},"大道：统一零售价不是建议零售价的意思，或者把建议零售价改到一个更合理的水平？（2025-10-26）",[904,2063,2064,2065,1262,2068,2070,2071,2074],{},"网友：（提问",[910,2066,2067],{},"方三文",[910,2069,937],{},"是不是可以理解为中国版的",[910,2072,2073],{},"喜诗糖果","？",[904,2076,2077,2078,2080,2082,2083,2085],{},"目标客户对其价格不那么敏感（方便提价），",[948,2079,135],{"href":1121},[948,2081,68],{"href":1117},"深（高端白酒的第一",[948,2084,135],{"href":1121},"），产品销量暂时下滑，存货反而会越存越值钱，在考虑它的估值的时候，能不能理解为单论目前储存的基酒就能值不少钱了，所以当前的估值显得不贵？",[904,2087,2088,2090,2091,2093,2094,2096,2097,2074,2099,2101,1213,2103,2105,2106,2108],{},[910,2089,2067],{},"：",[910,2092,937],{},"就是",[910,2095,937],{},"，为什么它得是",[910,2098,2073],{},[910,2100,937],{},[948,2102,64],{"href":1197},[910,2104,2073],{},"好多了，比",[910,2107,1157],{},"也好多了。",[904,2110,2111,2112,2114,2115,2117,2118,2120,2121,2123],{},"大道：如果你送人一瓶酒，你送什么？ 如果情人节你送人一盒巧克力，你送什么（你会跟你老婆说今天有个不是喜诗的牌子巧克力打折，所以我买了一盒给你？——",[910,2113,1206],{},"）？仅仅在这点上很像！我当然知道巧克力是甜的，",[910,2116,937],{},"不是。",[910,2119,937],{},"和",[910,2122,1157],{},"的很多属性完全不像，虽然都是喝的。（2025-12-26）",[904,2125,934,2126,2128],{},[910,2127,937],{},"最近新开了个做芯片、区块链的子公司。看来又要损失一点血了。",[904,2130,2131,2132,2134,2135,2137,2138],{},"大道：",[910,2133,937],{},"不是要去造高端通用芯片，而是通过新成立的“爱",[910,2136,937],{},"数字科技公司”把“芯片”作为防伪溯源和数字化业务的一部分来用、顺带做相关销售。",[2139,2140,2141],"span",{},"163 +2",[904,2143,2144],{},"这次“芯片”到底是啥",[904,2146,2147,2148,2150,2151,2153,2154],{},"• 2026 年 1 月，贵州",[910,2149,937],{},"全资成立“贵州爱",[910,2152,937],{},"数字科技有限公司”，注册资本 6 亿元，经营范围里包含“集成电路芯片及产品销售、区块链技术相关软件和服务、工业互联网数据服务”等。",[2139,2155,2156],{},"finance.sina +2",[904,2158,2159,2160,2162,2163],{},"• 这更像是围绕 i",[910,2161,937],{},"、溯源防伪、工业互联网的数据化升级，而不是进军通用半导体制造或高性能计算芯片设计。",[2139,2164,2165],{},"emcreative.eastmoney +1",[904,2167,2120,2168,2170],{},[910,2169,937],{},"酒本身的关系",[904,2172,2173,2174,2176,2177],{},"• ",[910,2175,937],{},"此前已经在瓶口胶帽里使用 RFID 芯片做防伪、溯源，新公司有很大概率是对这套防伪体系做“芯片 + 区块链”的升级和自研\u002F自控，而非另起炉灶搞大规模芯片产业链。",[2139,2178,2179],{},"163 +1",[904,2181,2182,2183,2185,2186,2189,2190],{},"• 由于每瓶酒都要用到防伪芯片，本身就有一定体量需求，",[910,2184,937],{},"通过自有数科",[948,2187,160],{"href":2188},"\u002Fpingtai","参与芯片采购、定制甚至部分销售，更像是为主业服务、顺便增加科技属性和估值故事。",[2139,2191,2192],{},"ecoapp.qianzhan +1",[904,2194,2195],{},"以上是ai的答案。（2026-01-07）",[904,2197,934,2198,2200,2201,2204],{},[910,2199,937],{},"要投资科技做芯片，太不",[948,2202,5],{"href":2203},"\u002Fbenfen","了。",[904,2206,2131,2207,2209],{},[948,2208,5],{"href":2203},"是用来内审的，你都没看明白人家在干什么。（2026-01-08）",[904,2211,934,2212,2214],{},[910,2213,924],{},"曾说：“投资很简单，但不容易。”不容易就在于你要忍受寂寞。当你买入后下跌，周围充满嘲笑或恐慌的声音时，告诉自己：这是超额收益的来源。如果每个人都同意你的观点，这只股票就不可能便宜。",[904,2216,2217,2218,2220,2221,2223],{},"大道：“不容易”指的是看懂生意不容易，“简单”说的是只有看懂生意是重要的。别人怎么看跟你有什么关系？当股票下跌的时候，你心里充满了恐惧，那就说明你买了你不懂的公司。你目前看上去并不懂",[910,2219,937],{},"，估计",[910,2222,937],{},"再跌个10% 你可能就“坚持”不住了。（2026-01-29）",[904,2225,2226,2227,2229],{},"网友：如果可以有无限的子弹，我愿意买下整个贵州",[910,2228,937],{},"。",[904,2231,2232,2233,2236],{},"大道：说的好像人家真愿意卖似的",[2139,2234,2235],{},"大笑","。老巴当年还真问过，人家不卖哈。（2026-01-29）",[904,2238,2239],{},"网友：（分享《大道》的内容）",[904,2241,2242],{},"“就算价格掉下来也是会回去的，万一这一幕又重演，请翻到这一页，然后多买点53度飞天和股票，就像上次一样”，有多少人看到过这一页的。",[904,2244,2245,2246,2248],{},"大道：我看了后也买了点",[2139,2247,2235],{},"。（2026-01-29）",[904,2250,2251],{},"网友：年份酒的价格是飞天两倍以上，我们老百姓宁愿自己买来放几年再喝也不太愿意高价买更好喝的年份，所谓延迟满足！等人均月收入过2万买年份应该就没什么困难了。",[904,2253,2254],{},"大道：可以理解的。（2026-01-29）",[904,2256,2257,2258,2260,2261,2264],{},"网友：段总，不懂股票，看你视频半仓买了",[910,2259,937],{},"，另外一半想买",[910,2262,2263],{},"伯克希尔","，现在的价格适合全部买进吗？买了就不想操作了，就一直放着。现在买入还是等下跌再一次性买入？",[904,2266,2267],{},"大道：如果你知道有下一波跌的话，你当然等下一波跌啊，不然你傻啊？! （2026-02-02）",[904,2269,2270,2271,2273,2274,2276],{},"网友：我是一个工作稳定、28未婚的。想拿房抵押来投资",[910,2272,937],{},"，抵押银行利息三个点，留一部分用来还利息就行了，五年后还本金，",[910,2275,937],{},"股价会不会跑赢银行利息？对此阿段怎么看？",[904,2278,2279],{},"大道：你有一定机会破产，也有一定机会赚钱，你随意哈。（2026-02-02）",[904,2281,934,2282,2284],{},[910,2283,937],{},"好喝，但大道很少喝，是因为红酒还是比白酒对身体好一些？",[904,2286,2287,2289,2290,2292,2293,2295],{},[910,2288,912],{}," 分类不是这么分的。红酒每瓶的价格可以从2美元起到几千几万美元。白酒有",[910,2291,937],{},"以及比",[910,2294,937],{},"便宜很多的酒。当然，肯花那么多钱去买那么贵的酒的人肯定都是很“傻”的。",[904,2297,2298],{},"网友：段总，冒昧问一下：今年你们公司团购茅台吗？去年团购的茅台消耗得怎样？有沒有团购茅台年份酒？",[904,2300,2301,2303],{},[910,2302,912],{}," 消耗得差不多了。今年好像依然没人买年份酒，但很多人买了两升装的。不过，几年前我在美国买了一些30年的年份酒，前几天朋友来开了一瓶，味道确实好啊。其实相对于好的红酒而言，年份酒茅台根本就不贵。",[904,2305,2306],{},"网友：今天满仓了茅台，用持有十年来买公司，只有茅台让人放心。",[904,2308,2309],{},"最坏来看茅台现在1300亿市值，今年赚140亿，明年降百分之二十，110亿，后年降百分之十，也就是100亿，十三倍市盈率，十年利润到300亿，市盈率给13倍，也就是3900亿，加上每年分红百分之五到六，每年有百分之三十八的回报，也许我的预期还不够悲观，那就把每年回报率再下降百分之十八，也有百分之二十，很知足了！",[904,2311,2312,2314],{},[910,2313,912],{}," 如果茅台10年内能有300亿的年利润，今天这个价当然就很便宜。",[904,2316,2317,2318,2320],{},"网友：我看大家真的不相信大道一直说的：现在买",[910,2319,937],{},"，10年后再看肯定是便宜的。",[904,2322,2323,2325],{},[910,2324,912],{}," 你看错了？大道说的是大概率比存银行合算，不是便宜的意思。万一你买了五年前的nvda的话，你要多赚很多的，如果你买了还居然拿住了的话。（2025-07-18）",[904,2327,2328,2329,2331],{},"网友：曾经在A股满仓民生银行的我，现在看着满仓的",[910,2330,937],{},"，感谢大道。",[904,2333,2334,2336,2337,2339],{},[910,2335,912],{}," 让我想起很多年前投了很多钱在民生银行的一个熟人，那时要都换成",[910,2338,937],{},"现在应该会舒服很多哈。(2023-03-15)",[899,2341,2343],{"id":2342},"第三节-买入增持与持有","第三节 买入、增持与持有",[904,2345,2346],{},"网友：茅台塑化剂美国送检情况",[904,2348,2349],{},"$贵州茅台（SH600519）$ @地面静风@大道无形我有型 一、送检始末去年11月以来白酒行业塑化剂事件使得茅台被推上了风头浪尖，一时间媒体上披露了数份不同机构出具的检测报告，但报告结果各异，大家众说纷纭。由此，一位朋友请我安排在美对从美国市场购买的53度飞天茅台进行检测，希望借助美国的两个……",[904,2351,2352,2354],{},[910,2353,912],{}," 好像当年我们就是根据这份送检报告确信茅台没问题然后开始大规模买入茅台的。（2013-01-28）",[904,2356,2357],{},"网友：段总好像在good kind of business，good people，good price．基础上又加了一个good time，想问一下这里是指好的买入时机呢，还是指长久地持有，还是指其他，还请段总有空聊一下。",[904,2359,2360,2362],{},[910,2361,912],{}," 好时机可遇不可求，不要太在意。（2013-09-21）",[904,2364,2365],{},"网友L：去年120亿净利润，分6.4元一股，今年150亿净利润，分4.37元一股和10股送一股。在去年这么严峻形势下，有这样的利润相当不错了，唯一不理解留310亿现金在手里，既没有大的支出项目，又不回购。",[904,2367,2368,2370],{},[910,2369,912],{}," 嗯，有点费解，可能是打算要用点钱？不然应该多分红，然后集团增持是正道。不过，这个分红也比利息好了。（2014-03-25）",[904,2372,2373,2375],{},[910,2374,912],{}," A股我们主要是持有茅台，用10年的眼光看，茅台依然不贵啊，上个礼拜绿一下或者上个季度绿一下不是什么了不起的事情。（2018-09-08）",[904,2377,2378],{},"网友：现在买入茅台是比较好的选择吗？（2018-10-29）",[904,2380,2381,2383],{},[910,2382,912],{}," 比较好的意思是跟你自己的机会成本比，所以只有你自己才可能知道现在是不是比较好。个人观点，现在买入过10年看显然大概率会比存银行好。（2018-10-29）",[904,2385,2386,2387,2389],{},"网友：最近没听到大道老师增持",[910,2388,937],{},"的声音了，甚是想念。",[904,2391,2392],{},"大道：看看我以前说的就好。（2026-01-21）",[904,2394,2395,2396,2398],{},"网友：贵州",[910,2397,937],{},"发布年报。2013年实现总营收309.22亿元，同比增长16.88%;净利润151.37亿元，公司拟每10股派送红股1股、派发现金红利43.74元(含税)，共分配利润46.45亿元。",[904,2400,2401,2403],{},[910,2402,912],{}," 分红好像比去年少了？",[904,2405,2406],{},"嗯，有点费解，可能是打算要用点钱？不然应该多分红，然后集团增持是正道。不过，这个分红也比利息好了。",[904,2408,2409,2410,2229],{},"网友：今天买到了跟大道成本很接近的",[910,2411,937],{},[904,2413,2414],{},"大道：140？（2025-12-08）",[904,2416,2417],{},"网友：应该是大道最近一次加仓成本。",[904,2419,2420],{},"大道：这个是正解哈。（2025-12-09）",[904,2422,2423],{},"网友：当时看的时候印象深刻，我还以为以后不会碰到掉下来的情况了呢。没想到真的碰到了。",[904,2425,2426],{},"大道：以后还会有的。（2026-01-30）",[904,2428,2429,2430,2432],{},"网友：从180买到120，相当于现在的1800买到1200，买入即浮亏30%！锚定内在价值、忽略市场波动，这是真正的",[948,2431,52],{"href":2045},"者才具备的格局。",[904,2434,2435,2437],{},[910,2436,912],{}," （补充大道以前的发言截图）",[899,2439,2441],{"id":2440},"第四节-分红与资本配置","第四节 分红与资本配置",[904,2443,934,2444,2446],{},[910,2445,937],{},"拥有的现金是否存在没有被有效利用而贬值的可能？",[904,2448,2449,2451],{},[910,2450,912],{}," 如果用不好贬得更快，不如分红。(2012-04-11)",[904,2453,2454],{},"网友：茅台貌似也蛮多现金的，是否存在没有被有效利用而贬值的可能？",[904,2456,2457,2459],{},[910,2458,912],{}," 如果用不好贬得更快，不如分红。（2012-04-11）",[904,2461,2462,2465],{},[910,2463,2464],{},"段永平：其实所有的股票都只有一个真正的买家会最终影响到股价，其他人对股价的影响都是浮云。这个真正的买家就是公司自己，买股票的钱来自于盈利。"," （2013-03-02）",[904,2467,2468],{},[910,2469,2470],{},"后记：",[904,2472,2473],{},"网友：有个问题想问问你，茅台有这么多现金，想问问茅台公司为什么不提高派息率？",[904,2475,2476,2478],{},[910,2477,912],{}," 那你应该问茅台才对。不过，似乎茅台在a股已经算是最好的了，如果因为这个不喜欢茅台，大概a股就不知道能投啥。（2013-05-14）",[904,2480,2481],{},"网友H：如果你对茅台公司的扩产计划有所了解，也许你就可以对茅台目前的现金留存比例有所理解了：",[904,2483,2484],{},"1．茅台刚刚公布了原产地扩大到15平方公里的认证，将周围的中华村等地也纳入到茅台酒原产地，这在以前，只有茅台镇地面上的产酒才算茅台酒，以后中华村的产酒也算了；",[904,2486,2487],{},"2．那中华村在政府的支持下，原住民整体搬迁出去，腾出地方建设茅台酒车间和酒库，这需要花一大笔钱补偿原住民，以及花一大笔钱建设新酒窖和新酒库，这都是几年前就酝酿和计划的，茅台公司需要留钱为这个项目的建设；",[904,2489,2490],{},"3．即使中华村已经建设好了，投产了，这个地方的产酒也需要库存5年才可以出厂销售，建设期加上库存期需要8年以上的时间周期，5年期的每年生产都需要购买原材料，这也需要钱，茅台公司需要留足这个8年期周转的足够钱；",[904,2492,2493,2494,2496],{},"4．退一步讲，当中华村生产的新酒8年后上市了，这个对茅台公司来说新增量的酒8年以后好卖不好卖谁也说不准，好卖当然就会赚回",[948,2495,82],{"href":1257},"了，如果不好卖呢？茅台公司多留点钱预备最坏的情况也不算不明智；",[904,2498,2499],{},"5．当茅台公司现有可以认证为原产地的地盘都开发完了，又都步入到正常的销售循环期了，那时茅台公司再留过多的现金已经没用了，才应该加大分红比例，不过我觉得应该10年以后的事了。",[904,2501,2502],{},"仅供参考。",[904,2504,2505,2507],{},[910,2506,912],{}," 合乎情理。（2013-05-15）",[904,2509,2510],{},"网友：贵州茅台3月24日晚间发布年报。与行业整体低迷形成反差，贵州茅台2013年实现总营收309.22亿元，同比增长16.88%；净利润151.37亿元，同比增长13.74%，扣非后的净利润达到154.52亿元，同比增15.30%。公司拟每10股派送红股1股、派发现金红利43.74元（含税），共分配利润46.45亿元。",[904,2512,2513,2515],{},[910,2514,912],{}," 分红好像比去年少了？（2014-03-25）",[904,2517,2518,2520,2521,2524],{},[910,2519,912],{}," 利润增加的同时减少分红又没有特别的理由是件很奇怪的事情。3%的增长倒是容易理解：就是不会下降的意思！反正谁都搞不清到底会怎么样，",[910,2522,2523],{},"茅台这个3%的预测其实是个蛮聪明的做法，这个数字可以让茅台慢慢做自己该做的事情，领导们也就不着急加任务了。"," （2014-03-28）",[904,2526,2527,2529,2530,2533],{},[910,2528,912],{}," 前面提到苹果的回购问题，最后苹果真的像我认为的那样举债回购了（由于境外的钱暂时回不来）。",[910,2531,2532],{},"好公司是知道怎么花钱的那些公司。这点上网易不算好公司，账上躺太多现金。账上的现金不用是会贬值的！茅台在这点上做得也不太好，虽然他们比下还有很多“余”。"," （2014-06-06）",[904,2535,2536],{},"网友：既然A股在第二条比较难解，那请问段总为什么还会买茅台？",[904,2538,2539,2541],{},[910,2540,912],{}," 博客里说过了，人民币投资里我能理解的最好标的就是茅台了。（2014-11-15）",[904,2543,934,2544,2546,2547,2549],{},[910,2545,937],{},"与",[910,2548,1210],{},"相比差距在哪里？",[904,2551,2552,1351,2554,1114,2556,2558,2559,2561,2562,2564,2565,2567,2568,2570],{},[910,2553,912],{},[910,2555,937],{},[910,2557,1547],{},"不错，但对赚到的钱的处理方式不尽如人意，",[910,2560,1210],{},"在这方面则是完美的。从这两年两家公司出现回购机会时完全不同的表现就可以看出这点。",[910,2563,937],{},"甚至有些滑稽的地方是分红居然还因为股价掉了而下降了。",[910,2566,1210],{},"对分红和回购策略的阐述是非常清晰的，作为股东基本可预期，而",[910,2569,937],{},"则会受到非股东因素影响。",[904,2572,2573],{},"(2015-04-09)",[904,2575,2576,2577,2579],{},"“贵州",[910,2578,937],{},"拟回购60亿，上市23年来首次。”(新闻)",[904,2581,2582],{},"网友：假设苹果和茅台都是打五杆洞职业高手：1：苹果每一杆都打得又远又到位，导致经常打出：PAR、BIRDIE、EAGLE……（这样的选手就算偶尔不到位，也知道接下来会发生什么；比如在推出大屏的时间上，您坚信苹果一定会推出大屏）；2：茅台三杆打得远落点也不差，在产品这杆上是超牛，而在某些杆上却没有苹果那么到位，结果就是…（这样的选手能不能每杆到位有点说不好？",[904,2584,2585],{},"更别说什么时候到位了？）3：对于职业赛来说，一场18个洞的结果下来，差距还是不小的；这样的情况持续的时间越久（5年、10年……）差距越大；（好像有点复利的意思？）没有打过高尔夫的人在一个经验丰富的高手面前说了这么多，感觉自己是个认真的纸上谈兵的家伙；家边上有一个不错的练习场，周末先去感受一下；没有自己打拼过企业而投资，不踏实的地方就在这里，纸上得来终觉浅。",[904,2587,2588,2590],{},[910,2589,912],{}," 茅台的生意模式不错，但对赚到的钱的处理方式不尽如人意，苹果在这方面则是完美的。从这两年两个公司出现回购机会时两家公司完全不同的表现就可以看出这点。茅台甚至有些滑稽的地方是分红居然还因为股价掉了而下降了。苹果对分红和回购的策略的阐述是非常清晰的，作为股东基本可预期，而茅台则会受到非股东因素影响。（2015-04-09）",[904,2592,2593],{},"网友：如果每年把钱除掉税之后分给股东，那比较容易预算大概的回报率；但如果每年都回购，感觉回报率就不知道怎么算了，只是感觉有可能会很大很大。",[904,2595,2596,2599],{},[910,2597,2598],{},"段永平：其实是否回购或分红都不是回报率的关键，但真正能赚到钱的好公司最后都一定会通过某个或某几个途径将利润给到股东的"," ，除非公司能像老巴那样用其多余的钱持续得到高于社会平均回报的投资……总有一天老巴的公司也会有用不完的钱的。（2015-11-16）",[904,2601,2602],{},"网友：段老师：1、好像几年前季老爷子也承认普茅放够年数比茅台年份酒好喝的观点，这与段老师实践所得是相符的；2、现在茅台不但有些地方卖断货了，且单价也普遍涨到1000元以上了；3、两个月前我买了两瓶，单价是900元，且是2015年出厂的；两月前当年出厂的普茅不到900元的还能够买到。",[904,2604,2605],{},"4、段大哥及我们股东最担心的假酒问题已得到有效的解决，段总的每瓶茅台（除小瓶的外）都应有身份的想法得到完全实现，“国酒茅台防伪溯源系统”这两年已全部上线，下载即可，且打开手机的NFC功能扫一下每瓶的酒盖即出现此瓶酒的全部信息，这种保健因子值得点赞。",[904,2607,2608],{},"5、我的万科正愁着呢，本来准备拿长点的，但有人“入侵”后万科的经营及文化有可能发生变化，虽然现价也仅10倍多点的PE（未除去账上的600亿的货币资金），不贵，再涨的话卖不？我拿不住了。请老师及众同学予以解答。",[904,2610,2611,2613],{},[910,2612,912],{}," 如果这个“国酒茅台防伪溯源系统”已经成熟了的话，茅台最大的威胁就没了。对于万科，我没观点，但如果你心里不踏实的话为何不换茅台？（2016-08-07）",[904,2615,2616],{},[910,2617,2618],{},"3）．赤水河环境污染",[904,2620,2621],{},"网友：请教段总对茅台现在不断的推生肖、定制和扩产系列酒怎么看？",[904,2623,2624,2626],{},[910,2625,912],{}," 生肖和定制应该是不错的主意，扩大系列酒就不懂了。（2018-10-06）",[904,2628,2629],{},"网友：段总，您好！一般有三个卖出理由：企业经营发生恶化，高估，有更好的标的。请教一下，这三个信号没有出现的时候您是否满仓穿越牛熊？还是会根据市场状况（比如经济下行、中美摩擦等）进行部分股票部分现金的配置？",[904,2631,2632,2634],{},[910,2633,912],{}," 我一般都是满仓的。好不容易碰上的好公司不要轻易因为价钱可能高了一点点就卖掉了。比如，很多人问我，茅台700多了你怎么还不卖呢？这些人大多可能300多就已经卖掉了，其实一直后悔中呢。（2019-03-15）",[904,2636,2637],{},"网友：用大道这个毛估估的算法，茅台也是未来20年以上的年利润比现在只多不少的。",[904,2639,2640,2642],{},[910,2641,912],{}," 茅台未来利润大概率上是会比现在高的，而且大概率是越来越高……。（2019-04-07）",[904,2644,2645],{},"网友w：我是最近关注你的，依据你雪球对茅台的相关回复，我大概估算出茅台未来10年平均年盈利大概1000亿，这个数值是否和你的预估差不多呢？想验证一下，谢谢。",[904,2647,2648,2650],{},[910,2649,924],{}," ：没认真算过。毛估估想，大概未来10年的某一年赚到1000亿是有可能的，平均1000亿恐怕不容易。（2019-09-03）",[904,2652,2653],{},"网友b：大道，你以前对茅台一年的利润估计好像是300多亿，现在是1000亿。我的问题是利润估计是因为什么变化的？是根据茅台的发展还是什么？以前听你投资网易好像有类似的过程。麻烦分享下。",[904,2655,2656,2658],{},[910,2657,924],{}," ：时间点不同吧，而且我的意思总是“至少”…，所以至少300和至少1000并没有本质差别？总的来说，对好的生意模式而言，时间到了就都会有了。烂公司则相反，比如那个谁谁谁啥的。（2019-09-04）",[904,2660,2661],{},"网友：果然如大道所说，现金淹没脖子的感觉不好受。可是，国内没有红利税，是不是直接分红更好点？",[904,2663,2664,2666],{},[910,2665,912],{}," 回购分红并没有本质差别，都好过公司把过多的钱拿在手里浪费哈。(2024-09-21)",[904,2668,2669,2670,2672],{},"网友：大道，您觉得",[910,2671,937],{},"拆股，是对的事情吗？ 目前股价有点高，对小资金参与不友好，毕竟买一手10多万。另外，分红也很难再买入。",[904,2674,2675],{},"大道：一手十多万确实有点高，也许他们是怕小散户进来会让股价波动更大。我个人对拆股很中性，不觉得长期会对股价有实质性影响。（2026-01-22）",[899,2677,2679],{"id":2678},"第五节-风险与后续更新","第五节 风险与后续更新",[904,2681,934,2682,2684,2685,2687,2688,2690],{},[910,2683,937],{},"2012年有1787万应收账款，这对",[910,2686,937],{},"应该没有影响吧！不都说",[910,2689,937],{},"是先付款再发货，而且去了要排队。",[904,2692,2693,2695],{},[910,2694,912],{}," 一千多万的应收可能是某种特殊情况，但相对总的营业额而言可以忽略。（2013-04-02）",[904,2697,2698,2699,2701],{},"网友：反三公把年份酒给反没了，我很认同。很多调研的人把自己的调研结果写出来，与你判断一致（你是不是也看了这些信息并认可？），市场上还有一个大疑问：",[910,2700,937],{},"的预收款下降很厉害！我认为，预收是之前就确认完的收入，虽然下降厉害（也就是现在经销商打款不强烈），但销售依然能实现稳定，尤其是在年份酒滞销的情况下完成的。销售稳定才是基础。",[904,2703,2704],{},"其次，公司开放经销权，有利于经销的竞争，更有利于消费者买到实惠、货真的好酒！所以，从今后10年看，基本上还是可以安心睡觉的！至于收益能到多少，那是天知道的事情！",[904,2706,2707,2709,2710,2712],{},[910,2708,912],{}," 如果人们明白大部分生意实际上是没啥预收款的时候，人们会很喜欢",[910,2711,937],{},"的。下降表示还有，只是过去太难拿到货，所以很多人愿意付预收款，现在不太需要了。",[904,2714,2715],{},"网友：利润是算出来的，净利润是增长了只是预收款从50.9亿同比下降到28.6亿呵呵。",[904,2717,2718,2724],{},[910,2719,2720,2721,2723],{},"段永平：投资最重要的还是要看",[948,2722,1547],{"href":1197},"，不然的话大家就很容易只见树木不见森林，全部盯着眼前这一个月一个季度的波动来决定买卖的行为，这样是很难做投资的。"," （2013-04-18）",[904,2726,2727],{},"网友，由于我也重仓茅台，特别是昨天跌停的过程中毫不犹豫的冲进去了。",[904,2729,2730],{},"网友：【网易财经1月18日讯茅台集团董事长袁仁国今日在贵阳透露，2013年茅台集团实现销售收入402亿元，同比增长13.77%；实现利润总额222亿元，同比增长12.75%；上交税金140亿元，同比增长21.59%。“2014年茅台集团增长率定为12.5%，销售收入目标将突破450个亿”。",[904,2732,2733,2735],{},[910,2734,912],{}," 茅台的市场占有率不止千分之一吧？但记得好像是千分之二或三的样子？（2014-02-17）",[904,2737,2738],{},"网友：段总，茅台集团推出四个子品牌，赖茅、王茅、华茅、贵州大曲，这是不是正在削弱自己的护城河？",[904,2740,2741,2743],{},[910,2742,912],{}," 这个不太懂，似乎影响不会太大？没有最好。（2015-03-25）",[904,2745,2746,2747,2749,2750,2752],{},"网友：连大道都不怎么喝",[910,2748,937],{},"，这",[910,2751,937],{},"业绩还能增长吗？",[904,2754,2755,2757,2758,2760],{},[910,2756,912],{}," 大道喝的酒单位酒精量比",[910,2759,937],{},"贵很多……",[904,2762,934,2763,2765,2766,2768,2769,2771],{},[910,2764,937],{},"三季度利润已经零增长了，如果",[910,2767,937],{},"未来两三年开启负增长阶段，再过三年出现个位数增长，导致用了好几年才重回双位数增长状态，您会下修对",[910,2770,937],{},"的价值判断吗？",[904,2773,2774],{},"大道：不会。（2025-10-31）",[899,2776,2778],{"id":2777},"第六节-明牌估值假设与比较","第六节 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