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平理解好生意和护城河的重要指标。它不是随意卖高价的能力，而是因为产品差异化、用户信任和长期价值，让企业在合理范围内拥有不被价格战牵着走的能力。",22.5,{"title":150,"slug":151,"description":152,"category":132,"order":153,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"用户体验","yonghutiyan","段永平对用户体验的关注可以追溯到他做小霸王和步步高时期，那时他用\"消费者导向\"来表达类似的理念。2003年北大演讲中他说：\"对于企业来说，最重要的是产品，而产品又必须以消费者为导向，所以最终你要找准消...",23,{"title":155,"slug":156,"description":157,"category":132,"order":158,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"渠道","qudao","段永平对渠道的理解来源于他在步步高建立全国销售网络的实战经验。1999年在人民大学问答中，被问及步步高在管理上有什么特点时，他提到了\"地区唯一代理制\"的渠道管理模式。这是他最早公开谈论渠道策略的记录。",24,{"title":160,"slug":161,"description":162,"category":132,"order":163,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"平台","pingtai","段永平使用\"平台\"概念主要集中在分析苹果公司的商业模式时。最早出现在2011年他写的\"买入苹果思考\"中：",25,{"title":165,"slug":166,"description":167,"category":132,"order":168,"type":10,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"生态系统","shengtaixitong","段永平使用\"生态系统\"这一概念主要是在分析苹果公司时。最早出现在2012年前后的投资问答中。当一位网友详细描述了苹果设备之间的联动体验（iPhone、iPad、Mac的无缝协作、App 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CEO、理解乔布斯追求、苹果文化与用户体验。",5230,{"title":848,"slug":849,"description":850,"category":753,"order":851,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","整理段永平对马云的评价：理想主义、现实主义、企业文化、勇气、阿里巴巴与保留。",5240,{"title":853,"slug":854,"description":855,"category":753,"order":856,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","整理段永平对丁磊的评价：很有悟性、网易、不卖公司、不会干傻事、单纯与现金克制。",5250,{"title":858,"slug":859,"description":860,"category":753,"order":861,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","整理段永平对马化腾的评价：人不错、年轻、微信、微信支付、腾讯商业模式与长期影响。",5260,{"title":863,"slug":864,"description":865,"category":753,"order":866,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","整理段永平对俞敏洪的评价：新东方、面对问题、韧性、好生意人、条汉子与能力边界。",5270,{"title":868,"slug":869,"description":870,"category":753,"order":871,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","整理段永平对季克良的评价：茅台质量文化、造钟人、长期工艺、质量坚持与企业传承。",5280,{"title":873,"slug":874,"description":875,"category":753,"order":876,"type":771,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","整理段永平对黄仁勋的评价：真诚、有能量、长期方向一致、英伟达、AI 与能力圈边界。",5290,{"title":878,"slug":879,"description":880,"category":753,"order":881,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的公司，并区分高度评价、正面关注、曾评价后修正和仍需观察。",5300,"topic",{"title":884,"slug":885,"description":886,"category":753,"order":887,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","按段永平视角整理他高度评价过的人：投资大师、企业家、创始人和关键经营者。",5310,{"title":889,"slug":890,"description":891,"category":753,"order":892,"type":882,"volume":10,"volumeOrder":10,"chapterOrder":10},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","整理段永平从看不懂、保留或低估，逐步重新评估的公司案例：泡泡玛特、英伟达、阿里、新东方等。",5320,{"id":894,"title":574,"body":895,"category":416,"chapterOrder":20,"date":10,"description":576,"extension":2778,"meta":2779,"navigation":2780,"order":577,"path":2781,"seo":2782,"seoDescription":576,"seoTitle":2783,"slug":575,"source":10,"sourceDate":10,"sourceUrl":10,"stem":2784,"tags":2785,"type":424,"volume":567,"volumeOrder":20,"__hash__":2788,"_collection":2789},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-apple-03.md",{"type":896,"value":897,"toc":2771},"minimark",[898,903,907,914,925,928,936,944,947,952,958,965,968,977,980,983,991,1002,1009,1014,1023,1034,1045,1048,1058,1083,1088,1108,1111,1121,1131,1140,1143,1146,1149,1152,1155,1158,1161,1167,1170,1177,1180,1186,1189,1195,1200,1203,1208,1214,1217,1222,1225,1230,1233,1236,1242,1245,1250,1255,1260,1263,1266,1269,1271,1274,1279,1282,1285,1288,1291,1294,1297,1302,1307,1312,1318,1321,1326,1329,1334,1339,1345,1348,1351,1354,1357,1360,1366,1371,1377,1380,1383,1386,1389,1394,1397,1402,1405,1410,1413,1422,1425,1428,1431,1440,1446,1449,1452,1461,1473,1478,1484,1490,1494,1496,1500,1502,1509,1514,1517,1520,1523,1526,1529,1532,1535,1540,1549,1560,1566,1582,1588,1593,1596,1599,1613,1635,1638,1643,1645,1648,1651,1657,1662,1675,1683,1686,1689,1695,1698,1703,1709,1718,1726,1732,1741,1752,1755,1758,1763,1769,1779,1785,1804,1807,1810,1818,1824,1827,1830,1835,1838,1843,1846,1851,1853,1856,1861,1867,1873,1875,1880,1885,1888,1906,1915,1921,1926,1929,1932,1940,1943,1949,1965,1980,1991,1994,2006,2021,2033,2039,2046,2049,2061,2064,2069,2074,2077,2085,2091,2096,2101,2106,2112,2117,2126,2134,2143,2149,2152,2164,2167,2173,2188,2191,2194,2197,2202,2205,2208,2211,2214,2217,2222,2227,2230,2234,2237,2245,2248,2253,2264,2277,2280,2285,2288,2291,2326,2332,2338,2347,2353,2356,2374,2377,2381,2392,2397,2409,2414,2420,2423,2428,2431,2438,2444,2447,2456,2459,2465,2468,2471,2476,2481,2484,2489,2492,2495,2498,2501,2507,2510,2513,2521,2524,2527,2530,2538,2547,2555,2561,2564,2569,2572,2577,2582,2602,2605,2613,2619,2627,2630,2645,2653,2656,2661,2664,2682,2697,2706,2709,2712,2719,2725,2729,2738,2744,2750,2756,2759,2768],[899,900,902],"h2",{"id":901},"第一节-看懂苹果估值与长期风险","第一节 看懂苹果、估值与长期风险",[904,905,906],"p",{},"网友：淘宝加支付宝的那个500亿是怎么估计的呢？eBay也只卖300亿呢。",[904,908,909,913],{},[910,911,912],"strong",{},"段永平："," 我这500亿完全没有科学依据，纯粹拍脑袋的。我只是觉得若干年后淘宝的盈利能力超过现在的eBay是非常有可能的……",[904,915,916,917,920,921,924],{},"另外，我不认为淘宝会马上上市，因为我实在想不出有什么理由会让他们这么做。但如果现在他们上市的话，市场也许不会给到500亿这么多，如果让我猜的话，我会猜150亿以内。但如果淘宝的盈利模式清晰以后再上市的话，可能结果会完全不同。呵呵，太多如果了。我猜若干年后",[910,918,919],{},"阿里巴巴","集团或",[910,922,923],{},"腾讯","会是中国最早到500亿、甚至1000亿美元市值的民营上市公司。",[904,926,927],{},"(2010-02-08)",[904,929,930,931,935],{},"网友：您的意思是，即使没有阿里集团，现在买入雅虎也不算亏，这是",[932,933,95],"a",{"href":934},"\u002Fanquanbianji","所在。",[904,937,938,940,941,943],{},[910,939,912],{}," 没有",[910,942,919],{},"集团的话，雅虎就不便宜了。(2010-03-03)",[904,945,946],{},"网友：如何分析雅虎，怎么得到30多美元\u002F股的结论？",[904,948,949,951],{},[910,950,912],{}," 大概说下。",[904,953,954,955,957],{},"每股(都是大概数，没细算过):现金3，雅虎以外上市部分属于雅虎的部分(包括雅虎日本约30%和",[910,956,919],{},"B2B香港上市部分约30%)4.6+2.1=6.7。",[904,959,960,961,964],{},"雅虎本身现在的",[932,962,82],{"href":963},"\u002Fxianjinliu","大概有每股1.4\u002F年，估计盈利在0.8左右，在互联网这样一个成长的市场里，雅虎的广告总量还是有很大可能成长的，所以我给这部分12倍的P\u002FE(这里给多少都可以，看每个人对他们业务的理解)，这就是9.6。以上总和是3+6.7+9.6=19.3。",[904,966,967],{},"所以我认为雅虎现在的市场的合理价格大概就在18-20美元之间，所以我认为雅虎不贵。",[904,969,970,971,973,974,976],{},"另外，雅虎拥有40%",[910,972,919],{},"集团的股份(所有没上市部分，包括淘宝、支付宝还有它们的妈妈等)，我也不知道那一块到底值多少钱，反正是送的。如果整个",[910,975,919],{},"没上市这块值到500亿的话，雅虎就一定在30块以上了。如果值200亿的话，雅虎大概值25-26块。",[904,978,979],{},"不管大家对淘宝的前景怎么看，我对美国大部分投资者的理解是他们根本还没开始看淘宝呢。也许这才是雅虎可以便宜的机会吧。等个几年之后，也许大家就慢慢注意到那一块了。(2010-04-03)",[904,981,982],{},"网友：这句话怎么理解？",[904,984,985,987,988,990],{},[910,986,912],{}," 呵呵，我觉得这种产品市场的变化很多。买雅虎的假设前提是雅虎本身不能出太大的问题，比如不能亏钱(现在看起来一时半会好像确实不会，但10年以后就不知道了)。理想的目标是自己能觉得清楚地看到10年或更长时间。对",[910,989,919],{},"，10年以上我不太担心，但雅虎本身却说不清，有一些问题。",[904,992,993,994,997,998,1001],{},"呵呵，最理想的就是可以",[932,995,114],{"href":996},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","、永远不想卖的股票(",[910,999,1000],{},"巴菲特","讲的)。(2010-05-16)",[904,1003,1004,1005,1008],{},"网友：78.02亿美元是“美国虎牙”每年10亿收入一共10年",[932,1006,91],{"href":1007},"\u002Fzhexian","到今天的收入，这点比较明白，不明白之处是每年产生10亿收入的那些“资产”是什么呢？“美国虎牙”的市值和每年产生10亿收入的“资产”没关系。",[904,1010,1011,1013],{},[910,1012,912],{}," 把这个例子改成“房子”，你可能就明白了。假设你收了10年租金，然后卖了这个房子。难道你会觉得租金和房子没关系？(2010-05-31)",[904,1015,1016,1017,1019,1020,1022],{},"网友：那是不是意味着估值=净资产+未来",[932,1018,82],{"href":963},"的",[932,1021,91],{"href":1007},"呢？",[904,1024,1025,1027,1028,1030,1031,1033],{},[910,1026,912],{}," 房子不卖就不是资产了？不卖的房子继续产生",[932,1029,82],{"href":963},"(收租)!未来",[932,1032,82],{"href":963},"的时间变长。这个例子里是为了方便计算才卖的，不然就要一直算下去。(2010-06-01)",[904,1035,1036,1037,1039,1041,1042,1044],{},"公司价值实际上只和其未来(净)",[932,1038,82],{"href":963},[932,1040,91],{"href":1007},"有关，净资产只是产生",[932,1043,82],{"href":963},"的工具而已。(2012-01-27)",[904,1046,1047],{},"网友：这个长期没有什么具体的期限吧，比如是3年还是5年10年的，老是持有得不够长久！",[904,1049,1050,1052,1053,1019,1055,1057],{},[910,1051,912],{}," 未来",[932,1054,82],{"href":963},[932,1056,91],{"href":1007},"其实是没有期限的，慢慢琢磨下。(2010-12-07)",[904,1059,1060,1061,1064,1065,1068,1069,1072,1073,1075,1076,1068,1079,1082],{},"网友：当年做PC时，封闭的",[910,1062,1063],{},"苹果","输给开放的",[910,1066,1067],{},"微软","+",[910,1070,1071],{},"IBM","，今天的",[910,1074,1063],{},"一样封闭，难道它一定能赢",[910,1077,1078],{},"谷歌",[910,1080,1081],{},"三星","吗？",[904,1084,1085,1087],{},[910,1086,912],{}," 我觉得不一样。你用一用产品就明白了，不是一回事。(2011-01-23)",[904,1089,1090,1091,1094,1095,1097,1098,1100,1101,1104,1105,1107],{},"我不是所谓的“果粉”、像我这个年纪和这么",[932,1092,216],{"href":1093},"\u002Flixing","的人，不大会是任何人或东西的粉丝，我甚至不是",[910,1096,1000],{},"的粉丝。实际上我以前一直多少有点不太喜欢",[910,1099,1063],{},"，毕竟用了PC和",[910,1102,1103],{},"诺基亚","这么多年，但iPhone和iPad 的出现确实彻底改变了我对",[910,1106,1063],{},"的认识。",[904,1109,1110],{},"作为一个普通人，我没能力从技术上去说这些产品，所以只说说我都用iPhone和iPad 干什么。",[904,1112,1113,1114,1117,1118,1120],{},"1.首先，",[910,1115,1116],{},"iPhone和iPad都非常容易上手","。早年用摩托罗拉的时候，心里那个烦啊，用户界面太难用了。后来用",[910,1119,1103],{},"的智能手机时又找到了当年用摩托罗拉的感觉。以我个人的水平而言，安卓的界面水平还远远比不上iPhone(也许我们自己的出来后会改变一点这个局面？期待中)。",[904,1122,1123,1124,1127,1128,1130],{},"上个月我曾经想买个安卓手机试试的，在商店里转了半个多小时，店员给我介绍了10来分钟，在3个牌子(",[910,1125,1126],{},"HTC","、",[910,1129,1081],{},"、摩托罗拉)间挑来挑去，晕晕乎乎中最后还是决定不给自己添麻烦了。",[904,1132,1133,1134,1136,1137,1139],{},"iPhone ?呵呵，我几乎拿到手里时就会用了。店员只是告诉我开关在哪里，那些图标是什么，前后花了大概15秒钟。当",[910,1135,1063],{},"的销售员可真容易啊，我自己前段时间在",[910,1138,1063],{},"店里只花了几分钟就推销了一台iPad 2。",[904,1141,1142],{},"2.我用 iPhone 干什么？我的iPhone上下载的软件其实比大多数人都少，毕竟不太花时间玩这个东西。电话、短信、E-mail、上网、世界时间、天气、图片、地图、记事本、YouTube、相机、录音、录像、字典、相册、图书馆、iPod、FaceTime、电影、电视、股票查询及交易、报纸、指南针、日历(记事本)、游戏，等等，不太注意但特别常用的是手电筒。",[904,1144,1145],{},"这些功能可能只是iPhone的沧海一粟。其实我想说的不是iPhone有多少功能，最重要的是所有这些功能都非常容易上手。一学就会，无师自通！",[904,1147,1148],{},"3.很多人说iPad其实就是个大号的iPhone。在用iPad之前我同意这个说法，但用了一段时间后觉得这个大确实大得非常有道理。我现在基本上已经不太用我的手提电脑了，旅行的时候带上iPad就绝对够了，iPhone有时候还是觉得有点小。对我而言，iPad2最强大的地方就是网络功能很强大，上网非常快，又没有手提电脑开机的麻烦，用起来真是很爽，携带起来又轻便。",[904,1150,1151],{},"还有一个特别强大的功能就是图片，包括上网看图片。我的iPad2里有大概1万张照片，记录着我们生活中的很多瞬间，没事看看真的觉得生活很美好，这个玩意儿该值多少钱呢？FaceTime也是一个很好的功能，在有Wi-Fi的前提下用起来那个叫方便，比打电话还容易。",[904,1153,1154],{},"我给我妈妈也买了个iPad 2，最近能让人带回去，里面也装上我们的照片。以后视频通话就非常方便了(以前曾经想过用电脑视频，实在是有点麻烦)，没事老人家还可以翻翻照片，真是好啊。",[904,1156,1157],{},"别的就不说了，有机会大家自己体会吧。总的来讲，如果经济上不是个太大的负担的话，iPhone和iPad2是绝对值得拥有的产品，生活确实因此变得不同了。(2011-03-31)",[904,1159,1160],{},"不知道大家有没有丢电话的经历？丢了以后怎么办？",[904,1162,1163,1164,1166],{},"前段时间我在旅行中丢了一件行李(iPad在里面)，当时以为是丢在机场了，后来突然想起",[910,1165,1063],{},"的Find my iPhone的功能，结果用iPhone一查(可以用任何别的IOS设备)，发现我的iPad还在酒店里。(值钱吧？)马上打电话给酒店告诉了他们，结果几天后酒店就把行李寄回来了。",[904,1168,1169],{},"还有一次把iPhone掉在沙发的缝里了，一时半会找不到，结果还是靠Findmy iPhone找到的。(这个功能你愿意付多少？)",[904,1171,1172,1173,1176],{},"当然，就算找到在哪里，万一捡到的人不肯归还怎么办？Find myiPhone 上还有一个功能，那就是可以立刻消除你丢失的iPhone或iPad上的所有资料。另外就是，在补一个新的iPhone或iPad时，只要用自己的",[910,1174,1175],{},"Apple"," ID，几乎所有的资料就又都回来了。(这个功能值多少钱？)",[904,1178,1179],{},"有个朋友前几天说丢了电话所以丢了所有电话号码，对于iPhone使用者来说，这个事情不会再发生了。(这个值钱不？)",[904,1181,1182,1183,1185],{},"好像只要记得自己的",[910,1184,1175],{},"ID就可以用这个办法找到自己的iPhone或iPad，只要开始用的时候把ID开通了就行。(这个其实也很有价值，因为人们往往是丢了以后才知道这个功能的。)",[904,1187,1188],{},"都说iPhone贵，想想丢电话时自己愿意付多少钱把丢掉的资料找回来并且不失密吧。如果觉得这个重要的话，那就……",[904,1190,1191,1192,1194],{},"iCloud 确实强大，不然",[910,1193,1081],{},"的人不会回家后用iPhone和iPad 的。(2012-12-13)",[904,1196,1197,1199],{},[910,1198,912],{}," 今年的第一个投资的大决策就是在一月二十一号买进了苹果，把去年赚的钱都放进去了。",[904,1201,1202],{},"从很久以前就开始或多或少地关心苹果，但就是没认真分析过，大概是因为自己老是满仓的缘故。1.21由于股权到期日，要释放了不少资金出来，在压力下突然想明白了。",[904,1204,1205],{},[910,1206,1207],{},"买苹果的灵感其实是来自博友的提问。记得前段时间我在这用苹果举过一个什么股价叫便宜的例子：如果你觉得苹果值5000亿的话，那3000亿就是便宜，虽然他曾经只有50亿的市值。",[904,1209,1210,1213],{},[910,1211,1212],{},"其实我个人认为，苹果有可能会是地球上第一家年利润过500亿美金利润的公司（过多少不敢说）。也许苹果会是第一家市值过万亿美金的公司（这个取决于市场会有多疯狂）"," 。（2011-02-08）",[904,1215,1216],{},"网友：现在还买入苹果，对一般投资者来说是追高，但对段老师来说，也许是达到了跳出市场，忘记市场的境界了。",[904,1218,1219,1221],{},[910,1220,912],{}," 一个公司价值多少和他曾经价值多少没有必然联系。其实苹果是比较容易看明白的（如果你能平常心认真看一看的话），只要你看看他现在的盈利、账上的现金以及未来可能的盈利就好了。话说回来，之所以像大多数人一样我一直没买苹果的理由，也是因为他已经涨了许多了，所以没认真看过。真的有点像当年的网易啊。（2011-02-09）",[904,1223,1224],{},"网友X：市值过万亿美金！很想知道段总是怎么算出来的，能不能简单说几个依据？不管怎么样，现在追高苹果都有点趋势投资的感觉。",[904,1226,1227,1229],{},[910,1228,912],{}," 苹果现在手里有600亿现金，去年4季度的盈利已经过60亿了。如果苹果达到500亿以上的年利润，5000亿以上的市值是非常合理的。一万亿只是一个说法，要看苹果后续的发展情况。",[904,1231,1232],{},"我决定买苹果以前主要想的是他们是不是还有可能成长，有多大的空间可以成长，威胁都可能来自什么地方，等等。",[904,1234,1235],{},"我不去想他现在的股价和过去的股价，尽量用平常心去看这家企业。以我的观点看，苹果年利润有一天达到800亿或更多都是有可能的，所以觉得我买的价钱还很便宜。我不懂你说的所谓趋势投资是什么意思。",[904,1237,1238,1239,1241],{},"总而言之，我想的只有一个东西，就是未来自由",[932,1240,82],{"href":963},"（的折现）。不过，要认为苹果能做到这一点并不容易，我自己也很遗憾为什么以前一直没花功夫去想一想。过去没想的主要原因则和你现在的想法差不多。（2011-02-14）",[904,1243,1244],{},"网友：前天，我和同事讲，我把苹果想明白了。春节后听您分析完，我好好的用了一段时间IPAD，也比较了IPHONE和HTC。还是要有消费体验。买了一点点苹果。呵呵。小翟。",[904,1246,1247,1249],{},[910,1248,912],{}," 最近也许是个买苹果的好机会，由于日本地震可能影响到苹果，加上etf的调整也可能会影响到。我自己最近也在慢慢加一点苹果，争取在5月2号以前用option的办法（可以降低点成本）调到20-25%。（2011-04-09）",[904,1251,1252],{},[910,1253,1254],{},"封仓十年的选择（2011-04-29）",[904,1256,1257,1259],{},[910,1258,912],{}," 这样的利润、这样的成长、这个business model，苹果会成为世界上市值最高的公司吗？苹果会成为第一个市值到一万亿美金的公司吗？",[904,1261,1262],{},"答案将会在若干年后揭晓。",[1264,1265],"hr",{},[904,1267,1268],{},"居然ipod还能卖这么多，有趣。（2011-04-21）",[1264,1270],{},[904,1272,1273],{},"02．引用：苹果iPad 2今日国内上市起售价3688元",[904,1275,1276,1278],{},[910,1277,912],{}," 封仓10年是个很好的思路，选股时就该这么想。",[904,1280,1281],{},"我自己还没有过封仓10年的体验，毕竟开始投资才刚刚到第10个年头。",[904,1283,1284],{},"这位博主对苹果的看法和我类似，但我不知道我会不会持有苹果10年或以上。",[904,1286,1287],{},"实际上我买股票时还真没有想过要拿多少年。",[904,1289,1290],{},"我一般会给我买的股票定个大概的价钱，比如买GE时我就认为GE至少值20块，但我确实没想过要多少年才会到20。",[904,1292,1293],{},"苹果所处的行业确实是个变化很快的行业。",[904,1295,1296],{},"虽然我认为苹果在竞争中已经处于一个非常有利的位置，但我还是会很关切哪些变化有可能会改变苹果的地位。",[904,1298,1299],{},[910,1300,1301],{},"如果非要我给苹果定个价的话，我大概认为苹果也许某天会到600块。理由是：以我的理解，苹果的盈利在两到三年内大概就可以",[904,1303,1304],{},[910,1305,1306],{},"达到每股40-50块／年（现在的盈利能力大概在每股25-6块\u002F年），也就是说苹果的盈利能力会在两三年内接近double一下，再加上那时每股现金100多块（现在大概每股60多），给他个600的价钱应该不算太过分吧？",[904,1308,1309],{},[910,1310,1311],{},"苹果会不会到1万亿市值？那要看那时市场有多疯狂，Jobs有多健康了。",[904,1313,1314,1317],{},[910,1315,1316],{},"当然，苹果也是有可能掉回到100多块的，反正到时大家就知道了"," 。（2011-04-29）",[904,1319,1320],{},"网友N：Typical段氏毛估估大法，几句话，几个数字容易，背后滴东东就不好学咯，危险动作，小朋友们不要模仿。",[904,1322,1323,1325],{},[910,1324,912],{}," 背后的东西就是凭什么认为苹果还会增长，有这个认识确实不容易，我也没有绝对把握，所以只放了25%在里面。（2011-04-30）",[904,1327,1328],{},"网友：知道段总一直都喜欢满仓，斗胆问一下：段总在1月份左右买的苹果，25%的仓位动用的是未投资现金？还是卖了其他股票再买的？",[904,1330,1331,1333],{},[910,1332,912],{}," 卖了很多ge。买的时候认为ge会到20以上，现在还会到多少就不知道了。其实我也不光卖ge，别的想卖的不好卖。我的uhal卖了这么多年还卖不完，挂个5000股的卖单经常一个月都没人理。不过，5块钱买的东西，能卖100块已经是很高兴的事情了。除非你是大资金，如果是小资金的话也许还有别的可以有更好的回报。（2011-05-03）",[904,1335,1336],{},[910,1337,1338],{},"博文：安全边际",[904,1340,1341,1342,1344],{},"网友：关于苹果，我也算是这个行业的人士吧，我对苹果未来利润和自由",[932,1343,82],{"href":963},"有疑问，想请教段老师：",[904,1346,1347],{},"1．利润率是否会下滑？随着智能机市场的市场扩大，且预期iPhone的份额还会提高。销量的增长，我认为概率很大。但是价格和利润率呢？从市场占有率角度iPhone大约是全部手机市场的5%，但是利润占比应该在50%上下了。",[904,1349,1350],{},"iPhone 50%毛利水平，200美金的单台利润，能否持续？华为这样的选手，推出的1700元左右的U8800，我觉得也是不错了。Android手机确实体验不是太好。不过我觉得确实对于大多数人，是可以满足的。",[904,1352,1353],{},"2．iPad是很有潜力的产品，但是在这个价位，毛利率不高。我个人估计在30%上下。因为要替代上网本，笔记本市场，这个中等定价是必要的。Apple应该是瞄准了市场培育后的电子出版平台等市场。",[904,1355,1356],{},"3．即使未来Apple在App Store，iBook，iTunes上形成了对于应用软件，电子书，音乐的50%占有率的垄断局面，我认为3年内，这部分的营收和利润比硬件的利润还是差很多。所以商店本身不是估值重心所在。而且Android必然会形成类似的平台。",[904,1358,1359],{},"所以，能否到500亿美金／年利润，我觉得自己还是没有能力推理出来。我已经买入了部分Apple，主要是觉得3年内确实没有对手能威胁他，年200-300亿美金利润基本有保证，市场价格下降的可能很小，这部分思想坦白说比较投机了。",[904,1361,1362,1365],{},[910,1363,1364],{},"段永平：以我理解的苹果，毛利率很难下降很多，但市场占有率也不会提高的很快。什么时候我看到苹果开始通过降低毛利率来提高市场占有率的时候，我就该考虑离场了。"," （2011-05-22）",[904,1367,1368,1370],{},[910,1369,912],{}," 1月21号那天在股权到期日将释放很多buying power的压力下突然想明白苹果，做了今年的第一个大决定，到目前为止也是今年的唯一的大决定，就是重仓买进苹果。这个礼拜五苹果真的站上400了。老巴的打卡原则好像还蛮好用的。（2011-09-18）",[904,1372,1373,1376],{},[910,1374,1375],{},"段永平：又是对苹果的毛估估思维：苹果现在市值4200亿，现金1000亿，今年估计赚400亿+，明年应该能赚500亿+，产品如日中天，生意模式相当强大，现在就卖有点早吧？这么高的成长和这么低的pe，找个好股票不容易啊。苹果怎么看都应该是6000亿以上的公司，也许会更多的。卖股票和持股成本无关，要理性思考。"," （2012-01-26）",[904,1378,1379],{},"引用：苹果股价再创新高，巴菲特索罗斯双双减持苹果股票",[904,1381,1382],{},"网友：在这个时候再来回顾段总买苹果的过程，真是绝妙的一课。一年前段总在3000亿美金市值的时候，重手建仓苹果，给我深刻印象，和很多人讨论过，基本说法都是，不能迷信段永平。呵呵，和不能迷信巴菲特一个意思。刚才看了一下这个帖子里面的讨论，也是差不多这个意思。",[904,1384,1385],{},"现在来看，真正理解和懂一个公司才能有这种心态和行动，所谓看得懂变化可以赚大钱就是这个意思了。（2012-01-26）",[904,1387,1388],{},"这个案例真的是活生生的展示在我们的面前，有多少心得和体会就看各自造化了。",[904,1390,1391,1393],{},[910,1392,912],{}," 我没细算，毛估估想来其实苹果市值按当时的股数计算已经过万亿了（加上分红因素）。开始买苹果时觉得苹果怎么看都应该是1000块钱的股票，现在算上分红则已经超过1100了。（2017-05-23）",[904,1395,1396],{},"网友：成为街机的iPhone的热度会持续多久？已经无法成为身份象征的 iPhone 是否还会得到富裕人群的青睐？",[904,1398,1399,1401],{},[910,1400,912],{}," 一个季度3700万富人买iPhone?买iPhone只是因为iPhone好用，只有不用iPhone的人才可能认为iPhone是身份象征。(2012-01-31)",[904,1403,1404],{},"网友：我还有一个问题，就是记得去年您提到苹果iphone的市场占有率，我想在估值的时候一定要一个大概能达到多大的市场份额吧？那要怎么样来评估呢？",[904,1406,1407,1409],{},[910,1408,912],{}," 我认为苹果最后至少会有20%+的市场份额，但超过40%可能就有点不正常了。（2012-02-03）",[904,1411,1412],{},"网友：我当时就纳闷怎么老巴买了苹果，虽然老巴否认了，不过就算苹果现在是250，老巴还是不会买的。",[904,1414,1415,1417,1418,1421],{},[910,1416,912],{}," 老巴说他希望他买过。索罗斯可能正在揪自己头发呢。",[910,1419,1420],{},"如果老巴给我30分钟时间，我也许能把苹果的生意模式给老巴讲清楚"," 。（2012-03-03）",[904,1423,1424],{},"网友：苹果表现为一个摇滚巨星，在外在光环的背后，其实有一个强大的实力，这是容易被人忽视的地方。1）它在专业领域中关于价格、物料成本控制具有强有力的优势，在产品上足可以发动一个价格战争。貌似高端的形象之上，IPAD 3的产品价格其实是相当便宜的，与对手的产品价格相当，苹果有能力真正打一个价格战。",[904,1426,1427],{},"2）苹果产品除外表时尚，而且功能吸引人，品牌卓越这些优势下，容易被人忽视的是设计、制造和供应链管理。举例说，一般让山寨厂商把iphone零件全买下来，它的成本就和iphone成品价格相当，iPad成本比这低得多，仍然能保证获得巨额利润。iphone一代到四代价格不变，却能越来越大规模的零件升级这一点极具优势，那么相信iPad3有一个光明的前景。",[904,1429,1430],{},"只要iPad 3不出现重大纰漏，类似当年的iphone4死亡易握，它的销售前景极好。苹果公司继续保持领先优势。",[904,1432,1433,1435,1436,1439],{},[910,1434,912],{}," 其实苹果的强大实力是不容易也不应该被忽视的，除非你有意去忽视，但鸵鸟的办法不会有任何帮助。",[910,1437,1438],{},"任何一个被苹果直接或间接、现在或未来影响到的行业里的企业大概早晚都要面对苹果的强大实力的"," 。",[904,1441,1442,1445],{},[910,1443,1444],{},"随便举几个已经受到影响的行业或产品吧：手机、电脑、手提电脑、游戏（包括网游）、游戏机、中低端相机和录像机、音乐、电影、书、电视、网络、运营商、所有相关产品的零售、几乎所有的电子消费品……欢迎补充"," 。找到在苹果生态系统里生存的方式也许比挑战苹果要来的更现实一些。能够避开苹果也许是另一个办法。（2012-03-12）",[904,1447,1448],{},"13．引用：众强围攻，iPad3遭遇下马威",[904,1450,1451],{},"正因于此，iPad才能成为平板电脑行业的神话。当iPad成为一个神话后，引来了不少围剿者，三星、摩托罗拉、华为和联想等纷纷推出平板电脑，而联想更是喊出将iPad拉下神坛的豪言壮语。在MWC上，三星发布了又一款10.1英寸平板电脑……",[904,1453,1454,1455,1457,1458,1460],{},"网友：很多公司市值超过5000亿美元之后就会增长缓慢或走向衰落，",[910,1456,1063],{},"是不是也一样？",[910,1459,1063],{},"已经是地球最大公司，不论它现在基因多么优秀，最终会因庞大而死亡。这个公司已经没有增长空间了，除非地球经济飞速增长，否则无法支持这样的市值了。",[904,1462,1463,1465,1466,1468,1469,1472],{},[910,1464,912],{}," 科技类活不长指的是",[910,1467,1067],{},"吗？即使今天来看，如果从某一时点用同样代价让你可以拥有1%的徽软或可乐的股份，哪个会让你觉得更开心呢？现在很多科技类的公司走下坡路实际上都是同一个原因，你懂的。还有就是，消费类的公司就一定活得长吗？只要看看",[910,1470,1471],{},"可口可乐","这么多年的同行还有多少活下来就明白了。(2012-04-29)",[904,1474,1475,1477],{},[910,1476,912],{}," 如果真有的话，那就不是蚕食了。（2012-05-13）",[904,1479,1480,1481],{},"07．引用：",[910,1482,1483],{},"苹果第二季度净利润59.9亿美元创历史新高",[904,1485,1486],{},[1487,1488,1489],"em",{},"这样的利润、这样的成长、这个business model，苹果会成为世界上市值最高的公司吗？苹果会成为第一个市值到一万亿美金的公司吗？",[904,1491,1492],{},[1487,1493,1262],{},[1264,1495],{},[904,1497,1498],{},[1487,1499,1268],{},[1264,1501],{},[904,1503,1504,1505,1508],{},"（",[910,1506,1507],{},"2013．04.24"," ）",[904,1510,1511,1513],{},[910,1512,912],{}," 不知道大家有没有丢电话的经历？丢了以后怎么办？",[904,1515,1516],{},"前段时间我在旅行中丢了一件行李（ipad在里面），当时以为是丢在机场了，后来突然想起苹果的“find my iphone”的功能，结果用iphone一查（可以用任何别的ios设备），发现我的ipad还在酒店里（值钱吧？）。马上打电话给酒店告诉了他们，结果几天后酒店就把行李寄回来了。",[904,1518,1519],{},"还有一次把iphone掉在沙发的缝里了，一时半会找不到，结果还是靠find my iphone找到的（这个功能你愿意付多少？）。",[904,1521,1522],{},"当然，就算找到在哪里，万一捡到的人不肯归还怎么办？find my iphone上还有一个功能，那就是可以立刻消除你丢失的iphone或ipad上的所有资料。另外就是，在补一个新的iphone或ipad时，只要用自己的APPLE ID，几乎所有的资料就又都回来了（这个功能值多少钱？）。",[904,1524,1525],{},"有个朋友前几天说丢了电话所以丢了所有电话号码，对于iphone使用者来说，这个事情不会再发生了（这个值钱不？）。",[904,1527,1528],{},"好像只要记得自己的apple id就可以用这个办法找到自己的iphone或ipad，只要开始用的时候把id开通了就行（这个其实也很有价值，因为人们往往是丢了以后才知道这个功能的）。",[904,1530,1531],{},"都说iphone贵，想想丢电话时自己愿意付多少钱把丢掉的资料找回来并且不失密吧。如果觉得这个重要的话，那就……",[904,1533,1534],{},"icloud确实强大，不然三星的人不会回家后用iphone和ipad的。（2012-12-14）",[904,1536,1537],{},[910,1538,1539],{},"iPad3",[904,1541,1542,1543,1545,1546,1548],{},"网友：持有容易吗？阿段2011年买了",[910,1544,1063],{},"公司后，2012-2013年出现了55%的下跌；2015——2016年出现了36%的下跌；2018年出现了40%的下跌；2020年出现了36%的下跌。美股，几乎单仓一只。甚至阿段身边的朋友知道阿段还持有",[910,1547,1063],{},"的情况下，都忍不住卖掉。",[904,1550,1551,1553,1554,1556,1557,1559],{},[910,1552,912],{}," 是啊，",[910,1555,1063],{},"每次大跌的时候我都会加码，每一次！想到10年后的时候，自己喜欢的股票大跌怎么会心情不好呢？不过确实绝大部分早年跟我买",[910,1558,1063],{},"的都早卖掉了。(2020-11-06)",[904,1561,1562,1563,1565],{},"前些年一直有人在说，树不会长到天上去的。他们是对的，树确实不会长到天上去，但这不会影响",[910,1564,1063],{},"的成长。(2021-12-08)",[904,1567,1568,1569,1019,1571,1574,1575,1578,1579,1581],{},"在我的理解里，",[910,1570,1063],{},[932,1572,64],{"href":1573},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","非常强大，未来的复利回报大概率是会高过长期美国国债的。我总是习惯把美国长期国债作为第一",[932,1576,109],{"href":1577},"\u002Fjihuichengben","(就是最低的意思，我如果看不到公司的长期盈利是能超过长期国债的，就会直接过滤掉)，",[910,1580,1063],{},"第二。",[904,1583,1584,1585,1587],{},"所以除非看到未来几十年会好过",[910,1586,1063],{},"的公司，不然我不愿意换的。(2022-01-27)",[904,1589,1590,1592],{},[910,1591,912],{}," 说苹果：其实，最简单的办法是看懂这个生意，然后决定一个可以接受的价钱，然后buy to keep。比如苹果，我个人观点，这个生意是可以到每股80-100的每股年盈利，然后还可以至少维持或继续增长相当长的时间（比如5到10或更长），然后的结论就是300块很便宜，400块很便宜，其实500块也很便宜。现在600块便宜不？好像依然便宜。",[904,1594,1595],{},"但是，如果没办法得出苹果未来的盈利能力，什么价买起来都晕。（2013-01-22）",[904,1597,1598],{},"网友：为什么安卓的体验总是差强人意？",[904,1600,1601,1603,1604,1606,1607,1609,1610,1612],{},[910,1602,912],{}," 安卓本身占用资源大，比如如果都是两核或四核的手机，表现就要差不少，加上大家看到的",[910,1605,1063],{},"的东西是几十年积累下来的，安卓要全面达到恐怕不太可能。但是，安卓的表现其实已经很不错了，已经比当年",[910,1608,1103],{},"智能机的感觉强了许多倍，某些使用方面和",[910,1611,1063],{},"相比各有特色也是一定会有的，而且价钱还可以便宜很多。",[904,1614,1615,1616,1619,1620,1622,1623,1019,1625,1628,1629,1631,1632,1634],{},"未来安卓手机之间的",[932,1617,140],{"href":1618},"\u002Fchayihua","会越来越小，",[910,1621,1081],{},"的价钱要挺住不容易。",[910,1624,1063],{},[932,1626,165],{"href":1627},"\u002Fshengtaixitong","会保住特别喜欢或习惯的用户，所以受安卓的影响不会像想象的那么大。不过，有",[910,1630,1063],{},"和",[910,1633,1081],{},"在上面顶着价格，其他卖安卓智能机的企业应该还有一段不错的小日子。(2013-01-23)",[904,1636,1637],{},"网友：段总能否把去开苹果股东大会的体会感想写出来分享一下啊？",[904,1639,1640,1642],{},[910,1641,912],{}," 体会就是我写的这几句话：好的生意模式，好的团队，好的价钱。（2013-03-01）",[1264,1644],{},[904,1646,1647],{},"【转载】段永平投资思想---雪球小摘",[904,1649,1650],{},"43：又是对苹果的毛估估思维：苹果现在市值4200亿，现金1000亿，今年估计赚400亿+，明年应该能赚500亿+，产品如日中天，生意模式相当强大，现在就卖有点早吧？这么高的成长和这么低的pe，找个好股票不容易啊。苹果怎么看都应该是6000亿以上的公司，也许会更多的。卖股票和持股成本无关，要理性思考。（2012-01-26）",[904,1652,1653,1654,1656],{},"网友：",[910,1655,919],{},"最近一轮融资后，有传言将其估值定为430亿美元，几个月之后大摩又给阿里定了660亿到1280亿这么个伸缩性极大的估值，如果是你，你给阿里估值多少呢？",[904,1658,1659,1661],{},[910,1660,912],{}," 你看我几年前的说法，我认为阿里会是1000亿美元的公司，当然包括支付宝在内。觉得阿里是1000亿的理由是因为我认为阿里早晚能赚100亿或以上的。(2013-03-19)",[904,1663,1664,1665,1667,1668,1670,1671,1674],{},"网友：免费的东西往往不便宜，贵的东西有时其实很便宜。比如，买本好书才几十块钱，收获可能远超几百倍书的价钱。再比如您请",[910,1666,1000],{},"吃饭，",[910,1669,1000],{},"说最重要的是",[910,1672,1673],{},"生意模式","，您说收获远超饭局的价钱。我现在也更看得懂了，既是很好的投资，又顺带做了慈善。",[904,1676,1677,1679,1680],{},[910,1678,912],{}," ",[910,1681,1682],{},"能明白贵与便宜的关系非常不容易啊，绝大部分人大概一辈子都很难明白的。(2013-03-29)",[904,1684,1685],{},"特斯拉看起来很酷，但有点贵，不是那么容易买得起。iPhone虽然相对贵不少，但绝对值差别非常小。(2013-05-14)",[904,1687,1688],{},"网友I：“任何股票都只有一个真正的买家，那就是公司自己。”我觉得这句话绝不是说只有公司自己才是价值投资者。而是指公司以外的任何人购买都不会增加每股的价值，只不过是从张三转让给李四而已，和公司没啥关系；而公司回购并注销长期来看才会增加每股的含金量，这才是唯一真正的买家。",[904,1690,1691,1694],{},[910,1692,1693],{},"段永平：其实只要把公司想象成非上市公司，而且只有一个股东，大概就能容易明白了。"," （2013-04-20）",[904,1696,1697],{},"网友：看不懂“相对贵”和“绝对值”？",[904,1699,1700,1702],{},[910,1701,912],{}," 你两个都多用一段时间就明白了。1000块和800块的绝对值差异是200块。如果1000块的东西好用那么一点点，带来的回报会远超过200块。大多数人会觉得800块的东西便宜，实际上往往相反。(2013-05-23)",[904,1704,1705,1706,1708],{},"网友：您对安卓的前景怎么看呢？安卓做高端有前途吗？另外您觉得",[910,1707,1063],{},"会不会着力占领廉价手机市场？这样做的话对他们好处多还是坏处多？",[904,1710,1711,1713,1714,1717],{},[910,1712,912],{}," 在相当长的时间里，安卓的量依然会是大的。不能说安卓做高端如何，但某个",[932,1715,135],{"href":1716},"\u002Fpinpai","用安卓做个很贵的手机出来是很可能的，会买的人当然要叫那个高端了。另外，在安卓里也有高低端之分。",[904,1719,1720,1722,1723,1725],{},[910,1721,1063],{},"大概永远都不会专门做所谓的廉价手机市场，对你提出这个问题感到有点意外，说明你对企业的理解已经和大众很接近了。",[910,1724,1063],{},"的策略一直都在那里摆着呢，做最好的产品，让前面的产品做入门级以及提高级的产品。大约3年内，当iPhone7出来的时候，iPhone5c就会变成入门级的产品，大概会卖到2000出头，那个时候会有点好看哈。",[904,1727,1728,1729,1731],{},"另外，iPhone5s绝对是划时代的，不知道为什么那么多人会视而不见？我可以肯定的是，",[910,1730,1081],{},"里很多人要开始“熬夜多压力大”了。(2013-09-15)",[904,1733,1734,1735,1737,1738,1740],{},"网友：我的观察，买",[910,1736,1063],{},"的人大部分不是因为性价比高。人们用",[910,1739,1063],{},"主要是因为好用、放心用、有面子。性价比其次。当然，有很多人因为售价高而不舍得买的。但这部分人也不是因为性价比不够高而不买的。",[904,1742,1743,1745,1746,1748,1749,1751],{},[910,1744,912],{}," 我同意",[910,1747,1063],{},"产品是高性价比的。高性价比的东西不等于便宜，该知道的人最后都会知道的。好的车往往也是性价比高的车，而且这些车往往比较贵，想通这个就明白",[910,1750,1063],{},"的性价比问题了。当然，对于那些整天换手机，最后换到iPhone的人们而言，这个问题就不是问题。(2014-08-28)",[904,1753,1754],{},"每个人都是会看性价比的，但每个人对价格的敏感度不同。还有就是每个人对钱的看法不一样。比如有人会为了便宜去买不安全的车，等等。(2013-02-27)",[904,1756,1757],{},"网友：任何企业都应该有个合理的估值，还是某些企业根本就无法估值？",[904,1759,1760,1762],{},[910,1761,912],{}," 大部分人说的估值都是指市场应该给什么价，这个概念的估值不说也罢。如果你不是这个意义上的估值，你自然会明白的。",[904,1764,1765,1766,1768],{},"其实对自己懂的公司估值没人们说的那么难，难是难在不容易找到自己想买的公司。我对",[910,1767,1063],{},"的估值就是个例子，只有两个方面，简单来说就几句话(大概):",[904,1770,1771,1772,1775,1776,1778],{},"1.3000 多亿市值，1000多亿",[932,1773,73],{"href":1774},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，一年净利润400亿，未来会到500亿或更多(看不懂这个的为什么要对",[910,1777,1063],{},"感兴趣？);",[904,1780,1781,1782,1784],{},"2.",[910,1783,1063],{},"会将利润以合适的方式还给股东。",[904,1786,1787,1788,1790,1791,1794,1795,1797,1798,1800,1801,1803],{},"第二条在A股比较难解，这也是当时博友问我会选",[910,1789,1063],{},"还是",[910,1792,1793],{},"茅台","时，我毫不犹豫选",[910,1796,1063],{},"的原因。记得两年前有个朋友在球场碰到我，很沮丧地说他600多买了",[910,1799,1063],{},"，那时",[910,1802,1063],{},"一路在往下掉。我当时只说了一句：",[904,1805,1806],{},"也许两年后你会觉得600很便宜哈。(2014-11-15)",[904,1808,1809],{},"网友：段大哥，苹果跌的时候一直买，现在价值回归了，估值您认为现在算是合理了吗？以前400-500美金的时候，我是能看出便宜，现在近1000美金了，有点含糊了。",[904,1811,1812,1814,1815],{},[910,1813,912],{}," 现在其实也不算贵，只是没有以前便宜了。",[910,1816,1817],{},"就我自己而言，拿着苹果的选择如下：1．继续持有，享受苹果的成长和成就。现在拿着苹果，在可预见的未来的复合回报应该还可以有8%或以上的（这里指的是企业获利）2，找到比苹果更好回报的投资。我目前还没有任何目标，主要是自己能搞懂的生意太少。3．卖了拿着现金吃利息？这个显然不是太靠谱。",[904,1819,1820,1823],{},[910,1821,1822],{},"当然，有人会说现在卖了等回调再买回来，这么说的人如果有过苹果的话应该早就等得胡子都白了吧？"," （2015-02-27）",[904,1825,1826],{},"网友：您曾经说过苹果的市场份额会到40%，是因为快消品超过40%都很罕见吗？这几年下来苹果确实还没到40%（日本、美国到了），我发现两个因素有没有可能让苹果最终会超过这个比例？一、由于ios和Android不同的理念和出发点，随着时间越久，ios的优点会越来越明显，Android的缺点越来越明显；6和6+推出后，身边又有几个换iphone的人；",[904,1828,1829],{},"二、ios系统下的产品越来越多；从开始的Ipod+Imac+iphone，现在是Imac+iphone+ipad+APPLEwatch，未来会有更多产品进到这个系统里；",[904,1831,1832,1834],{},[910,1833,912],{}," 40%只是毛估估的想法，理由是iPhone虽好，但Android系统要便宜很多，而且现在的Android比当年诺基亚的智能机已经好用太多了。这是个多元的世界，总有人会因为各种原因选择不同产品的。",[904,1836,1837],{},"我的40%的意思是，如果苹果能有40%的份额的话，这个投资就是极好极好的投资了，而且40%是有可能达到的，因为在很多发达国家或地区目前已经达到40%或以上了。实际上，苹果只要有25%以上的份额就足够好了。（2015-04-26）",[904,1839,1840,1842],{},[910,1841,912],{}," 苹果已经达到我几年前说的$500亿年利润的目标，本人预计五年内会到1000亿！（2015-10-28）",[904,1844,1845],{},"网友：苹果第一财季的iPhone销量很不错啊，服务营收也如期继续大幅增长。",[904,1847,1848,1850],{},[910,1849,912],{}," 看来似乎五年内到1000亿年利润的想法乐观了些，那就改10年吧。美金升值的影响比想象大。（2016-01-28）",[1264,1852],{},[904,1854,1855],{},"网友：段大哥对苹果的投资确实是一个经典的价值投资战例．好奇的想问一下，段大哥如果遇到像08年那样的系统性风险，会卖掉一部分苹果吗？",[904,1857,1858,1860],{},[910,1859,912],{}," 不懂什么叫系统风险，好公司便宜的时候应该尽量多买点，岂有卖掉之理呢？（2018-09-11）",[904,1862,1863,1864],{},"网友S：",[910,1865,1866],{},"查了下资料：苹果公司目前已完成回购1000亿美元计划的30%，从2012年到2018年，苹果已通过股票回购和派息，向股东返现了2750亿美元，其中股票回购就达到了2000亿美元。再加上这1000亿，回购高达3000亿！我觉得这传递了两个信号：1苹果认为自己股价不贵。2苹果想更多的回馈股东。",[904,1868,1869,1872],{},[910,1870,1871],{},"段永平：没完全看出你说的信号，但至少可以看到一个事实，就是如果加上已经返还和回购的部分，现在的苹果的市值确实早就到了一万亿了"," 。（2018-11-20）",[1264,1874],{},[904,1876,1877],{},[910,1878,1879],{},"后记：",[904,1881,1882,1884],{},[910,1883,912],{}," 苹果似乎又到了不贵的价钱了。（2018-12-08）",[904,1886,1887],{},"06．这么多手机公司，为什么苹果最成功？",[904,1889,1890,1891,1893,1894,1896,1897,1899,1900,1902,1903,1905],{},"我在2011年买",[910,1892,1063],{},"的时候，",[910,1895,1063],{},"大概3000亿美元市值(当时股价310\u002F7=44)，手里有1000亿",[932,1898,73],{"href":1774},"，那时候利润大概不到200亿。以我对",[910,1901,1063],{},"的理解，我认为",[910,1904,1063],{},"未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个500亿(去年595亿)。",[904,1907,1908,1909,1911,1912,1914],{},"所以当时想的东西非常简单，用2000亿左右市值买个目前赚接近200亿\u002F年、未来5年左右会赚到500亿\u002F年或以上的公司(而且往后还会继续很好)。如果有这个结论，买",[910,1910,1063],{},"不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的",[932,1913,109],{"href":1577},"就可以决定了。但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我来说至少20年功夫吧。能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。",[904,1916,1917,1918,1920],{},"不懂则千万千万别碰，我有个球友320\u002F7=46买了一些，结果一个回调，310\u002F7就卖了(现在",[910,1919,1063],{},"加上分红可能早就超过200了)，还跟我讲为什么要卖的道理，从此我不再跟他说投资了。(2019-05-20)",[904,1922,1923,1925],{},[910,1924,912],{}," 如果你关注生意本身，你到时就会知道的，没有一个公式可以借用。我开始买苹果时苹果市值大概310\u002F7\u002F4=11块左右（分了两次股，1：7，1：4），这些年还有不少分红。那个时候就不停地有人跟我说难道树还能长到天上去？连芒格当时也说过他们不会买苹果。我本来曾经想跟老巴聊苹果的（那时苹果大概15块左右），但看了芒格说的话之后就犹豫了。",[904,1927,1928],{},"这事我其实一直有点后悔，如果当时老巴要买了苹果20%的话，我会非常开心的。多年后当老巴已经买了很多苹果后，我确实曾经跟老巴当面聊过苹果。我说我其实很久以前就想跟你聊苹果的，他说，哎呀，你当时应该说的，下不为例哈。所以独立思考，关注生意本身最重要哈。（2020-10-13）",[904,1930,1931],{},"网友：想起当初跟着学长为了阿里买雅虎股票的往事。",[904,1933,1934,1936,1937,1939],{},[910,1935,912],{}," 当时雅虎拿着40%的阿里，却只有100多亿美元市值，比白送还便宜，所以当时想的是，只要他们不瞎折腾就好，但他们就是瞎折腾了。这家南非公司倒是没听说有过折腾",[910,1938,923],{},"的事情。(2022-05-23)",[904,1941,1942],{},"我一直觉得iPhone很可能是最便宜的手机，因为单位时间里(比如10年20年)需要花在买手机上的钱的总额很可能是最少的，如果你想省钱的话。(2023-11-03)",[904,1944,1945,1946,1948],{},"网友：现在持有现金不急于买入",[910,1947,1063],{},"是怎么样的思考角度？",[904,1950,1951,1679,1953,1000,1956,1063,1959],{},[910,1952,912],{},[910,1954,1955],{},"这个问题",[910,1957,1958],{},"其实也没完全说清楚过。我是这么想的：我手里的",[910,1960,1961,1962,1964],{},"如果卖掉的话，买什么呢？目前看来只能买短期债券。我的现金目前买什么呢？",[910,1963,1063],{},"还是短期债券？当然，如果你有其他更好的投资标的就没有这个问题。",[904,1966,1967,1970,1971,1063,1974,1970,1977],{},[910,1968,1969],{},"我今天其实买了10万股","苹果，",[910,1972,1973],{},"价格是176美元多一点，钱已经付了，但要一年后交货(就是按现价买了",[910,1975,1976],{},"同时卖了一个一年后到期的200的看涨期权，收了21美元。最高收益是赚25美元\u002F股)。今天我有很多期权到期，我把赚到的钱的一部分买了",[910,1978,1979],{},"但这并不是这么花钱的理由。",[904,1981,1982,1063,1985],{},[910,1983,1984],{},"我想得最多的是176美元的",[910,1986,1987,1988,1990],{},"便宜吗？按这个价钱你愿意买下这个公司吗？其实对阿里我也是在想同样的问题，1800亿你愿意买下这个公司吗？",[910,1989,923],{},"我想的也是这个问题。很多问题不是马上能够得到结论的，好在我们有时间。需要考虑什么因素？当然是所有因素啦。(2023-12-16)",[904,1992,1993],{},"AI iPhone大概率会导致一波换机潮，主要是因为iPhone太耐用，平均换机周期比较长，很多人都没啥换机的动力。AI iPhone会给大家一个很好的换机理由。不过，换完一轮后大概又会进入相同的换机周期甚至更长的换机周期。估计未来十年内iPhone至少能卖个25亿台或者接近30亿，活跃用户估计也会从13-14亿增加到接近20亿。",[904,1995,1996,1997,1999,2000,1063,2003],{},"未来10年里iPhone 这个产品大概率会给",[910,1998,1063],{},"带来一万亿以上的利润。",[910,2001,2002],{},"毛估估乱猜",[910,2004,2005],{},"10年后的年利润可能会接近或达到2000亿美元。(2024-07-22)",[904,2007,2008,2009,2011,2012,2014,2015,2017,2018,2020],{},"前段时间我就说过",[910,2010,1063],{},"确实不便宜，",[910,2013,1000],{},"换点到石油是非常容易理解的事情。但目前我也没有太强的意愿拿",[910,2016,1063],{},"去换别的公司，主要是我能理解的公司太少。不过，我最近确实花了一点时间去想西方石油(OXY)和雪佛龙这两个石油公司。从占有资源的角度看，这两家公司似乎确实是蛮有价值的。所以我卖了不少",[910,2019,1063],{},"的call，同时也卖了不少OXY 的 put。",[904,2022,2023,2024,2026,2027,2029,2030,2032],{},"一般来说，",[910,2025,1000],{},"开始减持的公司是会继续减持的。我不会卖",[910,2028,1063],{},"，但很乐意看到",[910,2031,1000],{},"先生减持一些或更多。(2024-02-15)",[904,2034,2035,2036,2038],{},"网友：能详细讲讲西方石油的逻辑吗？",[910,2037,1000],{},"这么长时间频频加仓，可是市场上都是看空原油的。",[904,2040,2041,1679,2043],{},[910,2042,912],{},[910,2044,2045],{},"其实就是按不错的价钱买了个油田。石油资源大概率是会紧缺的，只是不知道什么时候而已。(2025-03-04)",[904,2047,2048],{},"山也还是那座山，梁也还是那道梁！",[904,2050,2051,2052,2054,2055,2057,2058,2060],{},"今天开始买了一些(或者卖put)",[910,2053,1063],{},"、英伟达、",[910,2056,1078],{},"、台积电，一会儿再卖点",[910,2059,923],{},"的put。",[904,2062,2063],{},"感觉起码要折腾一阵子，卖点put来回一起折腾也许是个好玩的游戏。还是老话，千万别用margin。如果put进来的价格从10年后看回来是便宜的价格，那这个投资就值得做，长短皆宜。(2025-04-08)",[904,2065,1653,2066,2068],{},[910,2067,1063],{},"受关税影响挺大的。",[904,2070,2071,2073],{},[910,2072,912],{}," 10年后看也许没那么大。(2025-04-09)",[904,2075,2076],{},"网友：您对稳定币的看法如何？",[904,2078,2079,2081,2082,2084],{},[910,2080,912],{}," 比航空公司的",[932,2083,140],{"href":1618},"要小。（2025-08-21）",[904,2086,1653,2087,2090],{},[910,2088,2089],{},"vivo"," vision您能讲讲吗？想听。",[904,2092,2093,2095],{},[910,2094,912],{}," Nice to have.（2025-09-25）",[904,2097,1653,2098,2100],{},[910,2099,2089],{},"确实厉害，新闻很少看到，销量却领先。",[904,2102,2103,2105],{},[910,2104,912],{}," 我们一直坚信老百姓心里有杆秤。（2025-10-06）",[904,2107,2108,2109,2111],{},"网友：段哥，想问一下，你当年买入",[910,2110,1063],{},"公司前后大概用了多久时间？",[904,2113,2114,2116],{},[910,2115,912],{}," 看起来很短实际上很长。（2025-10-19）",[904,2118,2119,2120,2122,2123,2125],{},"网友：您曾经说过",[910,2121,1063],{},"的市场份额会到40%，是因为快消品超过40%都很罕见吗？这几年下来",[910,2124,1063],{},"确实还没到40%(日本、美国到了)。",[904,2127,2128,2130,2131,2133],{},[910,2129,912],{}," 40%只是毛估估的想法，理由是iPhone虽好，但安卓系统要便宜很多，而且现在的安卓比当年",[910,2132,1103],{},"的智能机已经好用太多了。这是个多元的世界，总有人会因为各种原因选择不同产品的。",[904,2135,2136,2137,2139,2140,2142],{},"我的40%的意思是，如果",[910,2138,1063],{},"能有40%的份额的话，这个投资就是极好极好的投资了，而且40%是有可能达到的，因为在很多发达国家或地区目前已经达到40%或以上了。实际上，",[910,2141,1063],{},"只要有25%以上的份额就足够好了。",[904,2144,2145,2146,2148],{},"网友：10月31日，",[910,2147,1063],{},"CFO称，正在大幅增加对人工智能的投资，预计12月当季的毛利率将在47%至48%之间。",[904,2150,2151],{},"大道：哈，这是要变AI股了吗？$4万亿市值，40倍的pe，有点看不懂了。（2025-10-31）",[904,2153,2154,2155,2157,2158,2160,2161,2163],{},"网友：“在我想明白之后，我们斥巨资买入",[910,2156,1063],{},"。我不是故作神秘，也没什么不能说的，但确实很难表达出来。就是在长期观察积累的基础上，一下子豁然开朗。”昨天又重温",[910,2159,1000],{},"关于",[910,2162,1063],{},"的看法，也是豁然开朗的感觉。",[904,2165,2166],{},"大道：估计巴老目前也有点想不明白了。前面他卖在230-240的区间，现在手里还剩下的不知道会不会继续卖？我卖了不少明天到期的280的call，要是call走就call走吧。（2025-11-01）",[904,2168,2169,2170,2172],{},"网友：怎么毛估估一个伟大公司是否贵了，比如",[910,2171,1063],{},"，为什么PE40就算是贵了呢？",[904,2174,2175,2176,2178,2179,2181,2182,2184,2185,2187],{},"大道：其实很难知道一个伟大公司是不是贵了，老巴也说他也没完全搞懂。",[910,2177,1000],{},"说过伟大的公司最好别卖，但他有时候也会忍不住卖掉的。",[910,2180,1063],{},"现在40倍PE，就算每年复合成长10%，也要7年多才能翻倍哈。这个",[932,2183,109],{"href":1577},"不低但也无法就因此认为",[910,2186,1063],{},"已经贵了。不过，40倍PE确实不便宜。（2025-11-01）",[904,2189,2190],{},"网友：段总对苹果的顿悟，说明了经历在对公司理解上会变成财富，哈哈。段总无论是早年的小霸王时期，还是步步高时期，或者最近的OPPO手机时期，其实从事的工作和苹果公司没有本质的区别，都是消费类电子，都是了解消费者需求做精品，对产品的追求和理解是一致的，所以段总很快就能看到苹果的“厉害”之处，这个和大部分投资人通过财报、预测所理解的公司前景是不太一样的。",[904,2192,2193],{},"所以段总说的买股票就是买公司，对于公司理解的“度”上，把自己放到经营者的位置去思考，有些时候不得不说是需要一些“机缘”的。看段总苹果的仓位貌似提高不少，是因为最近一段时间看苹果看得更加明白的原因？",[904,2195,2196],{},"看《乔布斯传》最大的体会，乔布斯是一个非常厉害的产品经理，除了做出优秀的产品，还搭建了优秀的平台，失去乔布斯的苹果，在单品的设计能力和惊艳程度上是否会衰退，我不是很能理解？段总对于苹果的判断，是因为乔布斯所搭建产品平台优异的巨大惯性延续，还是其他？",[904,2198,2199,2201],{},[910,2200,912],{}," 绝大多数是去年初和中间有个时期买的，一月21号option到期后出来不少钱（主要是put卖出过期了），本来想买bac的，结果近期bac涨了很多，就都放aapl了。在没有其他目标的前提下，今天的苹果依然便宜，但没以前便宜了。",[904,2203,2204],{},"有些东西进步到一定程度后其实后面的变化就不大了，比如汽车发动机30-40年代和现在其实没本质差别。有些国家（虽然我们很多人很看不上）40年代就能造航空母舰，我们现在依然不行，说明由于某些原因，时间有时候帮不上大忙。",[904,2206,2207],{},"苹果最厉害的是现在这个平台以及生意模式，以我的水平我看不出谁能打破他。当然有很多以为水平比我高的人非说别人可以，当然也有自己说自己可以打败苹果的，你看看他们像吗？",[904,2209,2210],{},"也许，能打败苹果的人快出生了，也许正在某个地方徘徊，但怎么看都不是现在大家知道的这些，这是个大家可以看很多年的故事。（2012-01-29）",[904,2212,2213],{},"网友：换个角度看苹果，为啥很多公司市值超过5000亿美元之后就会增长缓慢或走向衰落，苹果是不是也是一样，长大到一定规模，食物就会匮乏，内部和外部的攻击就会累计更多，管理机构庞大后公司文化就会变异，最后走向死亡。苹果已经是地球最大公司，还能再扩大一倍还是十倍。不论他现在的基因多么优秀，最终会因庞大而死亡。",[904,2215,2216],{},"如果我从生物学来估值，这个公司已经没有增长空间了，除非地球经济飞速增长，否则无法支持这样的市值了。",[904,2218,2219,2221],{},[910,2220,912],{}," 科技类活不长指的是微软吗？即使今天来看，如果从某一时点用同样代价让你就可以拥有1%的微软或可乐的股份，哪个会让你觉得更开心呢？",[904,2223,2224],{},[910,2225,2226],{},"现在很多“科技类”的公司走下坡路实际上都是同一个原因，你懂的。",[904,2228,2229],{},"还有就是，消费类的公司就一定活得长吗？只要看看可口可乐这么多年的同行还有多少活下来就明白了。（2012-04-29）",[899,2231,2233],{"id":2232},"第二节-买入持有与卖出","第二节 买入、持有与卖出",[904,2235,2236],{},"网友J：这里说到的东西值得反复琢磨，很精炼。我是用非上市公司来帮助理解这里说到的一些概念的，比如说是三个人共同持有一家非上市公司的情况，觉得理解起来有可能容易些。看这个博客，一个慢字，对我来说越慢好像常常越快。有时候就停止不动了，静静地想，会有帮助。",[904,2238,2239,2241,2242,1694],{},[910,2240,912],{}," 用非上市公司的办法非常好，不然容易忽略本质的东西。",[910,2243,2244],{},"只要抽象到只有一个股东的时候就明白了。",[904,2246,2247],{},"网友D：我身边的人都因拥有1部iphone而自豪，当珍贵礼物买送人，这么好的公司，也许巴老公司正在买入苹果股票，很快会到500的。",[904,2249,2250,2252],{},[910,2251,912],{}," 我不希望苹果股票涨。最好是几年都不涨，这样回购价钱就可以低一些。（2013-04-28）",[904,2254,1653,2255,2257,2258,2260,2261,2263],{},[910,2256,1000],{},"卖",[910,2259,1071],{},"，买入",[910,2262,1063],{},"，到底是看到了什么本质？",[904,2265,2266,1679,2268,2270,2271,2273,2274,2276],{},[910,2267,912],{},[932,2269,82],{"href":963},"，现在的",[932,2272,82],{"href":963},"和未来的",[932,2275,82],{"href":963},"。(2018-03-04)",[904,2278,2279],{},"网友：在什么情况下，你会考虑卖出苹果？",[904,2281,2282,2284],{},[910,2283,912],{}," 如果苹果开始为了生意而不是用户体验时，就该考虑离开了。",[904,2286,2287],{},"07．引用：【new iPad成本提高，Apple毛率恐大幅下滑】",[904,2289,2290],{},"在新iPad内部零件确认后，iSuppli根据每个零件的市场成本进行分析，售价不变的第三代iPad，每个机型成本比iPad 2多出约30%，代表未来Apple的毛利率势必会向下修正……",[904,2292,2293,2294,2296,2297,2299,2300,2302,2303,2305,2306,2308,2309,2311,2312,2314,2315,2317,2318,1019,2320,2322,2323,2325],{},"网友：刷到这个视频，我突然想到为何",[910,2295,1000],{},"前段时间在210到240之间要卖掉那么多",[910,2298,1063],{},"股票了，而非仅仅因为税务问题：这个采访视频应该是老巴买入",[910,2301,1063],{},"之前的，对于老巴来说手机是",[910,2304,1081],{},"也好其它牌子也好并不重要，那是淘汰率非常高的“科技产品”，拉开时间长度没有",[932,2307,140],{"href":1618},"，他害怕",[910,2310,1063],{},"也像",[910,2313,1103],{},"一样，但是又纠结还保留着很多",[910,2316,1063],{},"股份并没清仓，所以段总说的",[910,2319,1063],{},[932,2321,64],{"href":1573},"比",[910,2324,1471],{},"要好，也是触动老巴的哈。",[904,2327,2328,2329,2331],{},"（视频中",[910,2330,1000],{},"的手机已经非常破旧）",[904,2333,2334,2335,2337],{},"大道：其实老巴比绝大多数人懂",[910,2336,1063],{},"，不然他不会买了那么多的。当然，我要更懂一点点，所以投的比例也更高。（2025-11-01）",[904,2339,2340,2341,2343,2344,2346],{},"网友：想请教个问题：既然“买入=持有”是个fact，为什么在有闲钱的时候不一定对持仓股票进行加仓呢？比如持有270的",[910,2342,1063],{},"，但不会再加仓这个价位的",[910,2345,1063],{},"，这个是什么原因呢？",[904,2348,2349,2350,2352],{},"大道：就拿",[910,2351,1063],{},"为例：这个价位不便宜，我确实不想买，但卖了又不知道买啥更好，这也是我在不停卖call的原因。（2025-12-16）",[904,2354,2355],{},"大道：你有病吧？！我买苹果的时候是什么价？现在是什么价？人家要求的就是不变穷，我这个办法大概率会让他不变穷的。（2026-08-20）",[904,2357,2358,2359,2361,2362,2364,2365,2367,2368,2370,2371,2373],{},"网友：大道您好，您在接受方丈的采访时说您是满仓主义者，当",[910,2360,1793],{},"股价涨到两千六七的时候非常想卖，但想到卖了",[910,2363,1793],{},"却不知道再把钱投资于哪一家，所以一直持有。我突然想到您重仓持有",[910,2366,1063],{},"，最近您也觉得",[910,2369,1063],{},"股价有点贵了，但是您也并不急着卖，随缘被call，是不是也是因为卖掉",[910,2372,1063],{},"之后不知道再投资哪一家公司？",[904,2375,2376],{},"大道：哈，今天就开始面临这个问题了。277.5今天居然被call走了，该买啥呢？！（2025-11-29）",[899,2378,2380],{"id":2379},"第三节-分红回购与现金","第三节 分红、回购与现金",[904,2382,2383,2384,2386,2388,2389,2391],{},"网友：未来",[932,2385,82],{"href":963},[932,2387,91],{"href":1007},"我理解为未来利润",[932,2390,91],{"href":1007},"，是否大错？",[904,2393,2394,2396],{},[910,2395,912],{}," 没什么错，但利润必须是真实的利润。(2010-05-27)",[904,2398,2399,2400,2402,2403,2405,2406,2408],{},"网友：假设一个永续存在的企业，产品是和人口有关的(这样假设时间越久增长越趋向于人口增长)，一直有稳定",[932,2401,82],{"href":963},"入的话，1000年盈利",[932,2404,91],{"href":1007},"值可能在几十万亿。如果有这样的企业存在的话，按现价买未来",[932,2407,82],{"href":963},"的思维，是不是现在任意价格都属于低估了呢？",[904,2410,2411,2413],{},[910,2412,912],{}," 怎么听起来像是美国国内收入署(IRS)。如果人口下降怎么办？人口是不可能一直涨的。(2010-05-27)",[904,2415,2416,2417,2419],{},"其实这个例子说得很清楚，把所有未来的可能",[932,2418,82],{"href":963},"都算了，这就是为什么我说2020年要卖掉的原因(卖掉是一次性把现金全部拿回来的办法)，不然就要一直算下去。(2010-05-28)",[904,2421,2422],{},"网友：我是果粉，家里用苹果和其他品牌的产品。现在，苹果的竞争对手们在产品本身上都向苹果学习，无论从有形的技术和无形的苹果灵魂，就产品而言，无论技术、外观、感觉和吸引的手段，苹果打100分，其他品牌如安卓、WP7打85分。但是，苹果公司在品牌上有很强的优势，很高的忠诚度，这些是其他品牌难以追赶的。",[904,2424,2425,2427],{},[910,2426,912],{}," 对于价格不那么敏感的用户而言，谁愿意买85分的东西而不是100分的东西，尤其是每天都要拿在手上用的手机呢？（2012-02-03）",[904,2429,2430],{},"网友：您觉得回购股票好还是分红好？",[904,2432,2433,1679,2435],{},[910,2434,912],{},[910,2436,2437],{},"我觉得分红简单且透明。回购则总是和价格有关，公司需要花时间去判断股价是否够便宜，有点难。(2012-02-24)",[904,2439,2440,2441,2443],{},"“",[910,2442,1063],{},"每股派息2.65美元，回购100亿美元股票。”(新闻)",[904,2445,2446],{},"这个花钱法只会越花越多嘛。分红也许该再多些才好，不过由于海外钱回美国要打很多税，这样可能也有道理。总的来讲，开始下毛毛雨了。",[904,2448,2449,2450,2452,2453,2455],{},"分红和增长其实没有必然联系，把这两种联系在一起的逻辑不通。现在的",[910,2451,1063],{},"更",[932,2454,216],{"href":1093},"，现金太多没用很可能会用于派息，但回购要麻烦些，因为需要判断股价高低。(2012-03-19)",[904,2457,2458],{},"网友：大道觉得回购股票好还是分红好？",[904,2460,2461,2464],{},[910,2462,2463],{},"段永平"," ：我觉得分红简单且透明。回购则总是和价格有关，公司需要花时间去判断股价是否够便宜，有点难。（2012-02-24）",[904,2466,2467],{},"03．苹果每股派息2.65美元回购100亿美元股票",[904,2469,2470],{},"苹果今日宣布，将利用手中的巨额现金向股东派息。苹果称，将在截至9月底的2012财年第四季度进行季度派息，每股派息2.65美元。此外，在始于下一财年的未来三年内，苹果将回购价值100亿美元的股票……",[904,2472,2473,2475],{},[910,2474,912],{}," 这个花钱法只会越花越多嘛。分红也许该再多些才好，不过由于海外钱回美国要打很多税，这样可能也有道理。总的来讲，开始下毛毛雨了。（2012-03-19）",[904,2477,2478,2480],{},[910,2479,912],{}," 分红和增长其实没有必然联系，把这两种联系在一起的逻辑不通。现在的苹果更理性，现金太多没用很可能会用于派息，但回购要麻烦些，因为需要判断股价高低。（2012-03-19）",[904,2482,2483],{},"网友：大道有用过macbook吗？能评论一下这款产品的优势吗？",[904,2485,2486,2488],{},[910,2487,912],{}," 刚刚买了台27吋的iMac，官价1999，左加右加居然加到5000多了（苹果产品对价格敏感度低的人很有办法哈）。以前用过macbook，用ipad以后基本不用手提电脑了。（2013-02-17）",[904,2490,2491],{},"网友：前些日子和一位朋友讨论到苹果，朋友提出了一个有趣的观点，部分观点与“seeking bargains”的比较接近。苹果业绩从高增长转向向低增长，在这个过程中难免会有不少对回报率要求比较高的对冲基金和科技股投资者离场。即使假设这批人会沽出的总量只有发行量的20%，这个也是一个巨大的绝对金额。",[904,2493,2494],{},"苹果股票面对的不是有没有投资价值的问题，而是最简单的“谁是买家？”这个老掉牙的问题。",[904,2496,2497],{},"以前苹果的主要投资者是对冲基金与科技股投资者，这些投资者看中的是高增长，对股息并不太在乎，现在苹果已经转为“价值股”了，没有既定的派息政策，确实会令对股息有一定要求，价值股的主要投资者退休基金却步。如果连老巴也不投资苹果，谁来接货是一个与价值无关但与价值回归所需要的时间有关的现实问题。",[904,2499,2500],{},"我个人也是认为苹果如果能够落实股息政策对股价有帮助。不知道段总怎么看这个问题呢？",[904,2502,2503,2506],{},[910,2504,2505],{},"段永平：其实所有的股票都只有一个真正的买家会最终影响到股价，其他人对股价的影响都是浮云。这个真正的买家就是公司自己，买股票的钱来自于盈利。"," 苹果不存在“如果”落实股息政策的问题，只有“怎么”的问题。（2013-03-02）",[904,2508,2509],{},"网友：假如苹果只宣布提高分红（每股多50美分或1美元），而不大量回购股票（一年至少200亿美元以上，去年宣布的三年回购100亿美元含金量较低因为它是用来neutralizing the impact of dilution），是否可以判断苹果对自己的前景不乐观？",[904,2511,2512],{},"另外，最为iphone的忠实用户，虽然我不会把我的iphone 5换成三星的，但是我觉得iphone的竞争优势相对于不在是四五年前那么强大了，它的innovation速度慢了，护城河变窄了。",[904,2514,2515,2517,2518,1439],{},[910,2516,912],{}," 感觉像是你相信人们会把自己的欧洲车换成韩国车？虽然你自己不想换。",[910,2519,2520],{},"其实任何股票都只有一个真正的买家，那就是公司自己",[904,2522,2523],{},"苹果现在拥有远多于运营需要的现金，所以苹果一定会用他们认为合适的办法还给股东，这是人们在投资苹果时应该认定的，不然就是投机。之所以认为这是个好机会回购的理由，因为这个价位以上套住的人很多，股价很可能不会反弹得太快，所以苹果有机会买到好价钱。我如果是苹果，现阶段宁愿贷款也要回购，因为分红都比利息高了。等将来有窗口时再将海外的钱汇回来就行。",[904,2525,2526],{},"（2013-04-19）",[904,2528,2529],{},"网友H：“其实任何股票都只有一个真正的买家，那就是公司自己。”突然想明白这句话了，如拨云见日，茅塞顿开！",[904,2531,2532,2534,2535,2537],{},[910,2533,912],{}," 未来净",[932,2536,82],{"href":963},"就是这个意思啊。（2013-04-19）",[904,2539,2540,2541,2543,2544,2546],{},"网友：这么好的公司，也许",[910,2542,1000],{},"正在买入",[910,2545,1063],{},"股票，很快会到500美元的。",[904,2548,2549,2551,2552,2554],{},[910,2550,912],{}," 我不希望",[910,2553,1063],{},"股票涨。最好是几年都不涨，这样回购价钱就可以低一些。(2013-04-28)",[904,2556,2557,2558,2560],{},"去年这时总股数是59.648亿，现在是56.735亿，少了2.9亿多股。这样下去20年后",[910,2559,1063],{},"公司就是我的了。",[904,2562,2563],{},"网友：再回购下去，段总想要低调就很难了，要进各种财富排行榜了。？",[904,2565,2566,2568],{},[910,2567,912],{}," 20年就可以了。（2015-10-29）",[904,2570,2571],{},"网友：以后可不能把它给私有化了啊！相信有很多博友跟我同样的想法。",[904,2573,2574,2576],{},[910,2575,912],{}," 如果目前这个价格能够持续10年的话，想不私有化也难啊。（2015-10-29）",[904,2578,1653,2579,2581],{},[910,2580,1063],{},"刚宣布增大回购，市场就提供低价机会，感觉特配合。",[904,2583,2584,2586,2587,2589,2590,2592,2593,2595,2596,2598,2599,2601],{},[910,2585,912],{}," 反正每年",[910,2588,1063],{},"都是要宣布回购的。和有些企业宣布不一样的地方是，",[910,2591,1063],{},"是来真的。希望",[910,2594,1063],{},"的股价继续掉，",[932,2597,82],{"href":963},"继续强悍，回购当然也是会继续的，10年8年后我可能就真是",[910,2600,1063],{},"大股东了哈？(2016-04-28)",[904,2603,2604],{},"网友：苹果刚宣布增大回购，市场就提供低价机会，感觉特配合。",[904,2606,2607,2609,2610,2612],{},[910,2608,912],{}," 反正每年苹果都是要宣布回购的。和有些企业宣布的不一样的地方是，苹果是来真的。希望苹果的股价继续掉，",[932,2611,82],{"href":963},"继续强悍，回购当然也是会继续的，10年8年后我可能就真是苹果大股东了哈？。（2016-04-28）",[904,2614,2615,2618],{},[910,2616,2617],{},"补充：（买股票就是买公司）"," 网友：有个问题一直困扰着我，如果好公司主流资金不买它，它也不会涨。毕竟市场涨跌是由主流资金把控的，价值投资是赚企业自身盈利的钱。如果主流资金本身就是随大流，那价值投资这个逻辑还成立吗？或者说价值规律在股市中能体现吗？",[904,2620,2621,2623,2624,2626],{},[910,2622,912],{}," 其实大概没多少人比我更高兴看到苹果股价掉下来了，因为这样苹果的回购价就会更低，回购的数量就会更多，未来我们持有的比例就会自然上升。最关键的是，苹果未来的净",[932,2625,82],{"href":963},"是不是还会这么厉害？",[904,2628,2629],{},"我个人理解苹果的好日子还远远没有到头呢，现在一年净利润已经接近$600亿了，未来$800亿或者$1000亿／年都是有可能的，只要10年内能到$1000亿，目前这个价钱就是很便宜的价钱！（2018-11-15）",[904,2631,2632,2633,2635,2636,2638,2639,2641,2642,2644],{},"网友：查了下资料：",[910,2634,1063],{},"公司目前已完成回购1000亿美元计划的30%，从2012年到2018年，",[910,2637,1063],{},"已通过股票回购和派息，向股东返现了2750亿美元，其中股票回购就达到了2000亿美元。再加上这1000亿，回购高达3000亿！我觉得这传递了两个信号：",[910,2640,1063],{},"认为自己股价不贵；",[910,2643,1063],{},"想更多地回馈股东。",[904,2646,2647,2649,2650,2652],{},[910,2648,912],{}," 没完全看出你说的信号，但至少可以看到一个事实，就是如果加上已经返还和回购的部分，现在的",[910,2651,1063],{},"市值确实早就到了1万亿了。(2018-11-20)",[904,2654,2655],{},"网友：再回购下去，段总想要低调就很难了，要进各种财富排行榜了。",[904,2657,2658,2660],{},[910,2659,912],{}," 20年就可以了。",[904,2662,2663],{},"网友：讨论雅虎的时候，会有很多数字的概念，包括账上现金、各业务营收、占阿里的股比等等，后来就不怎么听到学长说具体数字了。",[904,2665,2666,2668,2669,2678,2679,2681],{},[910,2667,2463],{},"： ",[910,2670,2671,2672,2674,2675,2677],{},"定性比定量分析重要，最重要的是",[932,2673,64],{"href":1573},"。",[932,2676,64],{"href":1573},"把绝大多数公司都过滤掉了，定量分析的重要性一下子就下降了很多","。所以这些年想通了的最重要的一点就是",[932,2680,64],{"href":1573},"。这点通了以后，投资确实就变得非常有意思了。",[904,2683,2684,2685,2687,2688,2690,2691,2693,2694,2696],{},"网友：（补充大道的回答）树不会长到天上去。这个问题我很早就想过了，也早预料到",[910,2686,1793],{},"会有停止增长的一天，关键是这并不影响",[932,2689,82],{"href":963},"，也就不影响",[910,2692,1793],{},"的价值。另外，我并不认同此时",[910,2695,1793],{},"的利润已经到了最高点。",[904,2698,2699,2700,2702,2703,2705],{},"大道：很多年前当我们讨论到",[910,2701,1063],{},"的时候，就有个很著名的大佬跟我讲“树不会长到天上去的”，我说我对树了解不多，但",[910,2704,1063],{},"未来肯定会比现在厉害很多。（2025-10-31）",[904,2707,2708],{},"网友：刚刚看到库克对于现金的一些评论，我必须说我爱上了库克了。舒普问及库克为什么在利用现金储备时依旧“十分谨慎”时，库克对此措辞表现地不以为然。库克表示：“的确，我们的现金储备很充足。但是我想表达的是，我们会明智地进行开销。我会把每一笔花出去的钱都当作是我们兜里的最后一分钱。我认为股东会希望我们这样做。我不认为他们希望我们挥霍摆阔。",[904,2710,2711],{},"同时我们也从来没有觉得自己是阔佬。”他进一步指出：“我并不是死抱着这笔钱不放，我们会在董事会上对这些自己的使用展开积极的讨论，我们不会把这些钱拿来随便开个派对或者做些古怪的事情。大家也不必担心我们会感到钱多到烧包。”当舒普询问库克，如果有人认为现金储备“没有有效地发挥效能”怎么办。库克承认苹果现在的现金储备已经远远超过了运营业务所需的数量。",[904,2713,2714,2715,2718],{},"但是他还是表示：“希望大家再多一点点",[932,2716,191],{"href":2717},"\u002Fnaixin","。”",[904,2720,2721,2724],{},[910,2722,2723],{},"段永平：（微笑）"," （2012-02-14）",[899,2726,2728],{"id":2727},"第四节-成熟期的苹果","第四节 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